CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD – Bullish Reversal After Completed Wave 5 and AO DivergenAnalysis:
The USDCAD daily chart shows a textbook completion of an Elliott Wave 12345 sequence. Wave (5) has just completed, supported by clear bullish divergence on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) – a classic signal suggesting exhaustion of bearish momentum.
What strengthens the bullish reversal bias is the presence of a bullish engulfing candle at the end of Wave (5), right at a key structural low. This candle formation, combined with the divergence, provides strong evidence that a corrective wave (likely Wave A or a larger reversal) may be underway.
🔍 Key Confluences:
Wave 5 ends in a falling wedge structure.
AO shows higher low on Wave 5 compared to Wave 3 → Bullish Divergence.
Bullish engulfing candle confirms momentum shift.
Price action breaking out of the wedge pattern.
🎯 Trade Plan:
I am waiting for a pullback toward the breakout zone to find an optimal buy entry. The ideal entry would be a retest of the bullish engulfing candle low or broken wedge resistance, turning into support.
📈 Targets:
Initial short-term target: ~1.3850 (previous Wave 4 region).
Mid-term potential: ~1.4050 depending on structure development.
🛑 Invalidation:
A daily candle closing back below the low of the bullish engulfing will invalidate the bullish outlook.
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025- USDCAD broke daily down channel
- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3730
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of May.
The breakout of this down channel follows the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.3545 coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level at 1.3730 (former strong support from May).
USD/CAD(20250618)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3642
Support and resistance levels:
1.3778
1.3727
1.3694
1.3590
1.3557
1.3506
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3694, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3727
If the price breaks through 1.3642, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3590
Bearish USD/CAD Presents a Selling Opportunity Now.FenzoFx—USD/CAD surged to 1.3686, a resistance zone backed by a bearish Fair Value Gap. Stochastic shows 81.0, signaling short-term overpricing. The market remains bearish below 1.3729, with fundamentals pointing to a stronger CAD.
A decline toward 1.362 is likely if USD/CAD stays below 1.3729.
USDCAD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off the supportBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.3600, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.3703, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.3500, a swing low
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USD/CAD Faces Rejection at 1.3692 – Downside Risk Toward 1.3597
USD/CAD was rejected at the key resistance zone between 1.36670 and 1.36928, and has since begun pulling back. This reaction comes as price remains within a broader descending channel.
If the bearish momentum continues, the next levels to watch on the downside are 1.36347, followed by 1.35970. A break below those could open the path toward the major support at 1.35402.
🔻 Rejection Zone: 1.36670 – 1.36928
🔻 Support 1: 1.36347
🔻 Support 2: 1.35970
🔻 Support 3: 1.35402
🔻 Trend: Bearish within descending channel
🔻 Timeframe: 4H
This is a technical idea only – not financial advice.
USDCAD SHORT IDEA- USDCAD Is EXTREMELY WEAK AND READY FOR SELLOANDA:USDCAD USDCAD Is extremely weak I expect price to drop hard from here.
TRADE BREAKDOWN
Weekly Trend is Bearish.
Daily Trend is Bearish.
4H Trend is also Bearish.
This is 100% a trend following strategy trade.
The entry is taken on 4H time frame targeting the recent weekly swing low.
This is a 4RR Trade.
The chart showcases the U.S. Dollar (USD) to Canadian Dollar (CAThe price has risen steadily from a low of 1.31512 since early 2024, peaking at 1.47931, with the 200-day EMA (orange line) providing strong support since December 2024. I expect the price to potentially test the resistance around 1.38812 again if the upward momentum continues.
The focus is on the 200-day EMA as a key support level
USD/CAD Holding Minor Support
USD/CAD is consolidating above local support at 1.35658, within a descending channel. A bullish break from this tight range could trigger a move toward the next resistance levels at 1.35817 and 1.36083.
A confirmed break and hold above 1.35817 would be the first signal of short-term strength.
However, a drop below 1.35658 could invalidate the bullish scenario and send price back to 1.35397 support.
USDCAD Bearish Bias: Beware Liquidity Traps & Reversal Risks.I'm currently keeping a close eye on USDCAD, which has been in a strong bearish trend. 📉
In this video, I explain how the market is unfolding across both the higher and lower timeframes, and why it’s critical to watch them in conjunction. On the lower timeframes, we often see a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, as the algos set up a seemingly a smooth trend. But traders should be cautious ⚠️
Why? Because on the higher timeframes, the market can easily pull back, triggering a liquidity hunt. This is often when the algorithm targets stop orders above recent highs, before resuming the trend 🧠💥
While my bias remains bearish, I'm also aware of the risk that the market could shift gears unexpectedly to run stops and shake out weak hands. This concept is fully broken down in the video — with examples of how to spot these traps and prepare accordingly 🎯
USDCAD Buy- Go for buy only when entry setup given
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for buy even if price goes one more down
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I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely.
Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results.
"I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅1H order block
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Could the Loonie reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which lines up with the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could rise from this levl to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3544
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 1.3516
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.3595
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD/CAD Plunges Towards Initial SupportUSD/CAD broke below key support last week with price attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly loss. A break of multi-year uptrend threatens further losses here with confluent support now within striking distance at 1.3504/23- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the February decline and the 78.6% retracement of the late-2023 advance. Note that channel support converges on this threshold over the next few weeks- risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection into this zone.
Resistance now back at 1.3720/95 with bearish invalidation steady at 1.3958/77. A break below this pivot zone exposes the 2024 LWC at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218.
-MB
Short trade 🔻 USDCAD – Sell-side Trade
Date: Monday, 16th June 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 5:00 AM
Entry Timeframe: 1Hr TF
Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.35680
Take Profit: 1.34735 (+0.70%)
Stop Loss: 1.35965 (−0.21%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.32
🧠 Trade Reasoning
USDCAD has shown sustained bearish momentum on both 1Hr and 4Hr timeframes, with a clear lower high forming beneath the 1.35800 area. This trade was initiated on confirmation of a bearish rejection from a supply zone during the early London session volatility.
USDCAD 15 MINUTEYour chart on USD/CAD (15-minute timeframe) clearly shows a bearish breakdown from the ascending trendline, and here’s a quick analysis based on what you’ve marked:
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📉 Technical Breakdown
🔻 Trendline Broken: Price has broken below the ascending trendline, indicating loss of bullish momentum.
🧱 Register Support (turned resistance): Price rejected after testing this area – confirms a bearish flip.
🧭 Support Zone (gray box): Price is currently testing this level. If it breaks below, continuation to TP is likely.
🎯 Target TP: Marked around 1.3625–1.3630, showing good confluence with prior swing lows.
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✅ Bearish Bias Confirmation
This looks like a textbook setup:
Break of trendline ✅
Retest of broken support (now resistance) ✅
USDCAD may hit bottom amid DXY declineThe dollar is weakening. Against this background, the Canadian dollar is strengthening, which puts pressure on the price of the currency pair.
The key support is 1.3566. Breakdown of the level will strengthen the sell-off
The price is descending by “steps”. Consolidation - distribution, consolidation - distribution.
From the current range of 1.365 - 1.3566 I expect the same thing: downward momentum.
Scenario: consolidation and price sticking to 1.3566, decrease in volatility and squeeze to the urvon may lead to a breakdown and a fall.
USDCAD Under Pressure: Chart Signals & Macro Forces Point South!The USDCAD pair is under clear pressure, as illustrated in this chart 📊. The visual structure highlights a persistent bearish trend, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The chart is reinforcing the idea that sellers are dominating the market. Notably, the drawn arrow in the chart points toward previous higher timeframe lows, suggesting that these areas could be the next logical targets for price action if the current trend persists.
On the fundamental side, the US dollar has been weakened by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and softer economic data, fueling expectations of potential rate cuts later this year 🏦. In contrast, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by strong commodity prices—especially oil—and a relatively hawkish Bank of Canada. The bearish structure seen in the chart aligns with these macro drivers, as the CAD continues to benefit from both domestic strength and global demand for commodities.
Geopolitically, ongoing global trade tensions and shifting risk sentiment have further supported the Canadian dollar, as investors seek stability in commodity-backed currencies 🌍. The combination of these factors, as reflected in the chart, suggests that USDCAD remains vulnerable, and a move down to retest previous higher timeframe lows is a real possibility unless there’s a significant shift in the underlying fundamentals.
Traders should keep an eye on the key support zones highlighted in the chart, as these could provide clues for potential exhaustion or reversal in the current trend 🔎.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a professional before making any trading decisions.