USDCAD has formed a bullish bat patternOn the weekly chart, USDCAD formed a bullish bat pattern. The current market is in the previous demand area. You can consider buying around 1.3580, and the upside target is around 1.3943.
CADUSD trade ideas
Bearish continuation for the Loonie?The price has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3725
1st Support: 1.3430
1st Resistance: 1.3837
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USD/CAD H1 | Bearish downtrend to extend deeper?USD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.3615 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.3660 which is a level that sits above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1.3565 which is a swing-low support.
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POSSIBLE BUY OPPORTUNITY ON USDCADUSDCAD has been pushing down for some time and is somewhat over sold. We seem to have found a good demand zone at which to go long!
USD/CAD Testing Channel Support – Watching for Bullish Rebound
USD/CAD is currently trading near the lower boundary of a well-defined descending channel. The price has shown signs of holding near 1.35660 support, which may lead to a short-term rebound.
If momentum builds, the first resistance to watch is 1.36083, followed by 1.36185. However, a confirmed break below 1.35660 would invalidate the bullish scenario and open room for further downside.
Bearish continuation?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3595
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3644
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3545
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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USDCAD TRADE SETUPWait for retest the entry level then take a trade for Sell otherwise skip this setup
USDCAD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25Given the daily down-trend and your clear break below the 1.3729 pivot, the path of least resistance is down toward 1.3420 rather than back up to 1.3729:
Trend
USD/CAD has been in a multi-month down-trend from the 1.4800 highs, carving lower highs and lower lows.
Broken support → resistance
That 1.3729 level failed as support in late May and should now act as resistance on any rally.
Momentum
Recent daily closes are rolling over into new lows, with no bullish divergence to suggest a reversal yet.
Slide to 1.3420 ~70% Down-trend continuation into the next demand zone
Rally back to 1.3729 ~30% Requires reclaiming 1.3600–1.3650 and bullish follow-through
Trend Alert – USD/CAD Could Be Preparing for a Major Reversal!🚨 Trend Alert – USD/CAD Could Be Preparing for a Major Reversal! 🚨
Traders, be cautious! The USD/CAD pair appears to be approaching a critical turning point. The market has now reached significant monthly support levels, and we are currently hovering around a marked green zone — a region known for potential bullish reactions.
For quite some time, the market has been in a strong bearish trend, consistently showing Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside. If you've been observing closely, you'll notice that the price action has been favoring sellers for weeks, if not months.
However, the dynamics might be changing soon.
There’s a large pool of liquidity building up above the current price levels. This creates the perfect condition for a strong bullish pump. The market could seize this opportunity to shift its direction and initiate a fresh uptrend.
💡 Key Insight: The current setup suggests that the bearish phase might be exhausted, and we could see the start of a bullish rally from this green support zone.
📉 Selling traders – proceed with caution! The risk of a sudden upside move is high, and holding onto short positions without proper risk management could be dangerous.
🧠 As always: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
📛 This is not financial advice — just a heads-up from a market observer who’s keeping an eye on the charts!
Possible bullish outlook Structure wise , price is currently sitting on the first poi for a bullish reaction, I would be watching either poi , to see how price reacts bullishly
USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024.
The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook.
The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves.
The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025.
Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals.
Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information.
Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends.
The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties.
JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations
Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference
In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate
1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation
Strong Negative Correlation:
USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa.
Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD.
Recent Trends:
Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength.
2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields
Interest Rate Differentials Influence:
The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements:
Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD.
Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise.
3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions
Monetary Policy Impact:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD.
Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher.
Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD.
4. Carry Trade Advantage
Carry Trade Basics:
Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential.
USD/CAD Context:
If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD.
Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite.
Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves.
5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP Theory:
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries.
Key Points of UIP:
Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate.
Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation.
Example:
Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain.
Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates.
Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP):
UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates.
CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk.
Formula:
The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries.
USD/CAD Implication:
Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation
Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD
10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks
Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows
Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect
Conclusion
The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence.
Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows.
While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment.
#USDCAD
USDCAD | 09.06.2025BUY 1.36800 | STOP 1.36000 | TAKE 1.37800 | Technically, a local upward reversal pattern and divergence is forming.
USD/CAD.1week chart pattern.It looks like me discussing a trade setup for USD/CAD with:
Sell Entry: 1.36200
Target Point 1: 1.23504
Target Point 2: 2.31000 ← This seems like a mistake
Let’s break it down:
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🔍 Trade Analysis:
Sell at 1.36200: This is a reasonable short entry, near recent resistance (depending on current market context).
Target Point 1 (1.23504): This is plausible, as it's a historically significant support level — a good long-term take-profit zone.
Target Point 2 (2.31000): This appears illogical for a short (sell) position — it's higher than the entry price. If you're shorting, you profit from a decline, not a rise.
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✅ Corrected Setup (Sell Idea):
Sell USD/CAD @ 1.36200
Take Profit 1: 1.30000 (medium-term support)
Take Profit 2: 1.23500 (long-term support)
Stop Loss: 1.37200 (just above recent highs)
Would you like a chart analysis or backtest of this strategy?
Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials NarrowUSDCAD – Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials Narrow
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground this week, supported by two key drivers:
Crude oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions and renewed demand optimism — boosting CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
US-Canada yield spreads narrowed, following revised expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may keep rates higher for longer, while the Fed is seen pausing.
Short-term event risks to watch:
🇨🇦 Canadian Manufacturing Sales data today at 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 G7 Summit in Alberta from June 15–17, which may influence oil and energy policy sentiment
Our latest fair value estimate for USDCAD has shifted lower to 1.3613, reflecting tighter rate spreads and stronger oil. Technical structure remains tilted to the downside.
📉 Technical Outlook – M30 Chart
🔹 Structure:
Price remains in a short-term downtrend, with a well-defined descending trendline capping upside attempts.
The pair recently tested the EMA 89–200 zone and failed, suggesting continued bearish pressure.
🔹 Key Zones:
Dynamic Resistance: 1.3638 – 1.3660 (trendline + EMA cluster)
Support Area: 1.3592 → 1.3578
A break below 1.3578 could expose deeper downside toward 1.3420 (September lows)
🔹 Momentum Indicators:
RSI has bounced from oversold (30) but remains in bearish territory.
The current rebound looks corrective — potentially a dead cat bounce.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Flows favour commodity-backed currencies like CAD, especially with energy prices rising.
USD has weakened slightly as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week.
Sentiment is leaning toward "sell the rallies" on USDCAD for now.
🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios
🔻 SELL SCENARIO – If price retests and rejects 1.3638 – 1.3660
Entry: 1.3640 – 1.3655
Stop-Loss: 1.3685
Targets: 1.3592 → 1.3578 → 1.3510
🔺 BUY SCENARIO – If strong bullish reaction occurs at 1.3592 – 1.3578
Entry: 1.3580
Stop-Loss: 1.3545
Targets: 1.3620 → 1.3640
⚠️ Focus on trend continuation. Only consider buys if clear rejection or bullish confirmation appears at support.
✅ Conclusion
The current trend in USDCAD favours sellers, with fundamental momentum supporting CAD via higher oil and narrowing yield differentials. Key resistance at 1.3638–1.3660 remains the pivot zone to monitor. With Canadian data and the G7 Summit ahead, volatility could increase.
USDCAD Long – Wyckoff Spring PlaybookCause > Effect. Behavior > Breakouts.
We just printed a classic Spring + Test setup.
Here’s how the puzzle came together:
🔍 Accumulation Context:
Market ranged quietly for hours – demand building below the surface.
Spike down into previous demand zone with climax volume – the shakeout.
Quick reclaim of the zone with bullish absorption signals the Spring.
📈 Execution Plan:
Entry just above the spring low at 1.3617
Stop below spring at 1.3612
Targeting inefficiencies at 1.3645 and 1.3651 (prior supply pockets)
🎯 Why I Like This Setup:
Structure: Matches Wyckoff Spring logic (Phase C → D transition)
Volume: Shakeout came with high effort, followed by efficient reclaim
Timing: Happens in a zone where other traders might still be stuck short
> “In trading, the ones who recognize intent get in before confirmation.”
This trade idea isn’t about being right — it’s about understanding behavior.
I’m not reacting to candles. I’m tracking the motive behind them.
BUY USDCAD for bearish trend reversal STOP LOSS: 1.34966BUY USDCAD for bearish trend reversal
STOP LOSS: 1.34966
Regular Bullish Divergence
In case of Regular Bullish Divergence:
* The Indicator shows Higher Lows
* Actual Market Price shows Lower Lows
We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart.....
The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this strong level of Support so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here.....
TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything...
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with... trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
possibility of uptrendIt is expected that a trend change will form within the current support area and we will witness the beginning of the upward trend. If the price breaks through the support area, a continuation of the downward trend to the next support area is possible.
USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅1H order block
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USD/CADUSDCAD is about to give us a nice opportunity to go long. lets patently wait for the setup.
Follow me for more long term trade that can make you a profitable trader. Trade responsibly.
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅1H order block
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Technical Analysis The USD/CAD pair is moving within a clear descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. Price failed to break the upper boundary of the channel and is now pushing lower from the 1.3660 resistance level. Currently, it's testing the 1.3590 support level. A confirmed break below this level could lead to the next target around 1.3539. The trend remains bearish unless the price breaks above the channel.
usd/cadTRADE 2 i belive this pair is already bullish in my opionion i just belive that it is retracing to a new price value which is the 1.346 which is at a daily support line follwed up by a 4hour support so i belive the market will hit this mark to follow up on the bullish side
