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Australia 200

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AU200 trade ideas

Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200. I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups. Now let's get into the top-down process: 12M: 2W: 4H: What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by Jasminex1x2
ASX200 eyes a fresh record high The ASX200 is set to open this morning at fresh record highs, seven weeks after striking its previous record high of 8148 back in early August. From here a sustained close above 8150 would open the way for the rally to extend towards weekly trend channel resistance at 8230/50ish. Conversely, a failure to sustain the break above 8150 would keep the ASX200 range bound with scope for a retest of last week's 7918 low. ASX futures closed 53 points (+0.65%) higher this morning at 8168, indicating the ASX200 should open higher at ~8175.
ASX:XJO
by IG_com
Sell stop AUS200 at 7920.4 areaAUS200 is under pressure to the downside after failing to establish its upside momentum. The price also broke channel and trend line support indicating its strong bearish momentum. The price also failed to stay above moving averages, and seasonally, September is known as a bad month for the stock market as well. I set my sell stop below the swing slow to catch bearish momentum and set my stop loss above the swing high on a 4 h timeframe. Trade safe and manage your risk guys Happy trading
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by aryoTraderX
AUS200 in Bullish TrendAUS200 is in bullish trend making HHS and HLs. The chart is in upward trend on daily and hourly chart. I have chosen 4H time frame for analysis. There is a bearish divergence along with bullish hidden divergence and hidden divergence is stronger than regular divergence. Also for confluence sake, the SMA of 10, 20 and 50 are in the trend support and the static support is also very strong as it was a strong resistance and SR flip occurred. It is complimenting the trend line. The Fib retracement for downward trend has also exceeded 0.618 level considering the trend to be a weak one for downward movement. The Signal is: EP: 8124.86 SL: 7980.71 TP: 8269.01
FPMARKETS:AUS200Long
by MuhammadArif039
ASX200 to finish the month higher as stunning rebound continuesThe ASX200 finished 26 pts (-0.33%) ⬇️ yesterday at 8045 after earnings reports at home, and the US missed the mark. However, in a repeat of Wednesday's price action, heavier losses were trimmed after month-end buying emerged around lunchtime. Watch today for more month-end buying, which will see the ASX200 likely finish the month in the green—a remarkable recovery after being down 5.7% in early August. ASX futures closed 46 points (0.57%) higher this morning at 8055, indicating the ASX200 cash will open higher at 8089.
ASX:XJO
by IG_com
ASX200 recovery under review With two weeks left in August, the ASX200 is down 1.50% MTD after being down a hefty 5.7%. The ASX200’s rebound from the 7600/7500 support area which includes the 200 day ma highlights its importance as the downside level to watch going forward. While the focus has switched to the topside, a retest of the 7600/7500 support area before year end is a strong possibility with an eye on the seasonally challenging month of September. ASX futures closed 14 points (-0.18%) lower on Saturday morning at 7898, indicating the ASX200 cash will open lower at 7965.
ASX:XJO
by IG_com
AUS200 - In Bullish Trend (Multi Time Frame Analysis)This index is bullish on a daily time frame and a resistance and support level are drawn (purple rectangle). The bullish trend is also denoted by a purple trend line. There was a divergence on 1D time frame which resulted in a downward trend for few days but after that it again got back in bullish trend. On hourly chart there was a bullish diversion which reversed the trend back to bullish which can been seen from daily time frame. A trend line is also drawn on an hourly chart along with an ABCD bearish reversal harmonic. Currently there is no divergence on a hourly chart but there is one on 15m that would result in a form of correction in the trend on hourly chart. I have placed my order of Buy Stop on 15m time frame because the probability is high for an upward trend till it test the 1D resistance level. The Signal is: EP: 7966.60 SL: 7916.80 TP: 8016.40 RR: 0.25%
FPMARKETS:AUS200Long
by MuhammadArif039
4
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy. Economic Impact Assessment A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below: Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index. Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller. Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers. Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks. Implications for the S&P/ASX 200 The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. Historical Precedent While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods. Conclusion A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
ASX:XJOShort
by signalmastermind
AUS200 in Bullish TrendI have been monitoring this index for quite a while. It made a bearish flag on an hourly chart. There was a bullish divergence which propelled the chart to get bullish which resulted in the formation of a bearish flag. I was waiting for a breakout of a bearish flag to put a short trade for the index but the breakout turned out to be a false one. The trend is bullish now and I have marked a key support level. I have now placed a pending order of Buy Limit by using FIB. No divergence is noted on the current trend. The Signal is: EP: 7828.22 SL: 7765.61 TP: 7890.83 RR: 0.5%
FPMARKETS:AUS200Long
by MuhammadArif039