AUS200 - KEY POSITIONThis is a key position. Shorting this means that one is willing to take a controlled affordable loss above the amber ATR line (there is no formula to work that out).
This is a trend following set up - so there are no targets.
AU200 trade ideas
Aussie stock market - ABCDABCD correction of doom.
I will be looking to enter a SHORT position at the upper trend-line channel resistance between FEB-APRIL 2020.
Why FEB-APRIL 2020?
The duration to get from A-C gives us the answer....
If: A to C = 0.618 (2,191 days)
then: B to D = 1.272 (4,509 days)
The above calculation gives us D's position on approx. - 9 March 2020
XJO ASX 200 Index crushed in today's opening tradesThe benchmark was crushed in the opening in today's session down by -4% at the time of writing, looking to hold at 5985.00 support level in the 30 minutes price chart. This is a classic dead cat bounce, which we saw prices bounced off temporarily and pushed back down, continuing its downtrend.
The Index could continue further down to its next major support at around 5795.20 if it fails to hold at 5985.00. Another major support to keep an eye which is picked up by my longterm indicator is at around 5379.30
ASX200 $XJO Are we heading for a bear market? Good Evening, investors and traders, the Asx200 $XJO went lower again due to market uncertainty with the coronavirus.
Last week, I said if we breach the 50 moving average, the first level of support is around 6300-6400.
The market went straight down to 6259.9 on Monday and traded sideways between 6259-6500 for a few days and eventually making a new low of 6216 at Friday's close.
Next week, I am watching 5800-6100 as a very important area of support. (Currently, I do forecast a dead cat bounce from there)
Furthermore, the ASX200 $XJO must close above or near the 200 MA (red line). If not, we are more likely heading for a bear market.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the VIX is at a bearish high reading.
This tells the mid-large fund organizations such as investment banks and hedge funds to reduce risk and exposure in their long/short portfolios.
The good news is that we do have a TD 9 coming for the Vix and this signal a likely top for the short term.
Therefore, like the hedge funds and investment banks,
I am still only risking a small amount of money in the market. I will go big again WHEN the Vix is below 15 and price level can close above all moving averages. At the moment this price area is around 6666-6800.
Glossary:
VIX
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index ( XVI ) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days.
• High readings indicate uncertainty ( bearish ) 20-30
• Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias 15-20
• Low readings indicate low volatility ( bullish ) and strong investor confidence. <14.99
Bear market
A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
AU200 is to bounce up for a day or twoOn Daily scale AU200 is in a downtrend, I believe it is still in the first wave even though wave 1 on SP500 and Nikkei seems complete.
The price is in wave 4 on 4h scale (green marking). Right now it is at the bottom of a running flat channel. RSI and Stoc are in oversold territory. These advocates for price to move up on Monday. It should go up to 6300 at least, but may shoot to 6500 zone converting running flat hypnosis to irregular flat. But we know that the new leg up must have 5 wave structure, so it should be clear whether the move is complete or not once the price approach 6300 zone, hopefully :-)
After that 5 wave move up, the downtrend will resume with the target around 5600 area which is the bottom line of the multi-year price channel.
looking to short australia dollar shorting aux dollar. price is in a correction pattern, wave (A) and (B) already formed .
wave (C) = wave (A) *0.618% at 5911 which is also around 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Technical Analysis Education - Simple TA on Weekly Chart - XJOTechnical Analysis Education:
ASX200 (ASX - XJO) Weekly Chart
For those of you out there who are new to trading, I like to keep my TA simple and clean. I also like to look at the bigger picture to understand what's happening right now. There can be a lot of confusion when an event such as a market crash happens. We can be reactive and emotional, which is normal, but not helpful.
See below the #XJO which tracks the ASX200. On the weekly charts its a clean upward channel, going through from the end of the GFC to now. Strong bullish trend with healthy pullbacks (corrections) You will note that the points value moves within this channel, bouncing as it goes.
Some points to note on the chart:
1. We are still in a #bullish market trend on the weekly timeframe (exclude the smaller time frames)
2. We haven't broken any major support levels.
3. We can expect to keep falling at least another 6% to said support.
4. We are still within the key #fibonacci levels of 38.2, 50 and 61.8. These are healthy retracement levels.
When to be concerned?
If we broke through our trend lines and fell below 5,800 points, we could potentially fall to 5,000 points or lower.
Make sure to look at the big picture!
Hope this helps
The XJO Corrections are Quicker, as Interest Rates head to ZeroAs interest rates head to zero the bounce backs from corrections are getting quicker.
XJO is in a 10 year uptrend channel since the GFC and the first correction in 10/11 from top of channel to bottom was approx 426 days at 23%, the second correction in 15/16 from top to bottom was approx 285 days at 21%, the next major correction in late 18 ( wasnt from top to bottom of channel) lasted approx 104 days at 15%. Current donwtrend has started from top of channel. As interest rates get lower from 5% to 0.5% the corrections seem to be less time.
Higher Probability we bounce off the 61.8 fib level or bottom of channel.
High Probability Of Dead cat bounce at 6300 ?6000 is the next level of support, if not we head straight into a bear market to 5400, which i think is a lower probability!
AUS200 Long Buy the Dip1h Chart shows price to be reversing with confluences: broken bearish tl, set new higher high and higher low, support at 1h 50ma, support at previous resistance area. Targeting the 127% and 161% in extension
XJO monthly and weekly levels.Keeping it simple.
Monthly resistance @6618--> next test: More outbreaks, Geopolitical tensions, Lower forecasts, supply chain issues, Profit taking, Uncertainty
Strong support @6380 --> Thanks to : helicopter money(eg- Hong Kong), Interest rate cuts, ' Buy the dippers' .
Not a trader(yet). Purely sticking to fundamentals of the companies I own/want to own.
ASX 200 Index is expected to cut deep into negative territoryThe Index is expected to fall to around 6482.50 and 6409.00 in today's opening trades following the continues sell-off in the U.S. and European markets.
The Index slipped below 6711.00 a critical price point highlighted in my previous update and closed yesterday's session at 6651.40.
The Index has slipped into the next stage of this sell-off at 6711.00 and 6409.00 price range. Critical price level to watch in today's session is at around 6482.50 and 6409.00
AUS200 (S&P/ASK) (SELL MEDIUM TERM)I know this is slightly late, however this trade is active on my side and i am looking to take profit from the start of this impulsive leg. At around 6964.92 area, i will be looking to trail my stop to 7123.57 and continue from there in order to try and capitalize on this move down!
XJO ASX200, close above 20 MA (weekly) to be bullish againThe retracement that I was waiting for came this week and we went down fast and hard.
This has made me more bearish than before in the short term.
We could see an "exit pump" in the next few trading sessions by big investors/institutions and have the price level jump back toward the 20 moving average before going down further like the past. Therefore, for me to turn bullish on the Australia market again, I need to see the price level close above the 20 moving average on the weekly . "Green line" (around 6900-7000).
If we break the 50 MA yellow line:
-I will close all my open positions
-Be out of the market
-so I can buy great companies at a discount once this is over.
-I will be watching that box around 6300-6400 as the first level of support.
#cashisking. #warrenbuffet #valueinvesting
