Short trade, short termReasons: Crossed MA50 in 15M, already tested upper trend line, strong sell candle on 15min
CN50 trade ideas
China A50 trend analysis Assumption : completion of C wave, range bound market.
Indicators used: time segmented volume, 20/50/200 EMA, DMA
The Chart Posted 3 Days Ago Met the First Objective.The H&S hourly top in the Chinese market just met the first objective.
China H&S target reached and now a bullish wedgeLooks like an almost perfect bullish wedge here. The H&S had a target arond 12.600, which has been reached, so it could be a (temp) turning point. With this bullish wedge at the low, it seems to be a perfect setup. Ideally we see one more drop to test the low again. When seeing it turn a bit at that low, might get a chance to catch the exact low. But in theory, with a wedge we want to see 3 touches of the support line, which we already have here, so it could already have set the low.
This wedge would also perfectly fit the picture of a normal correction of the big drop we had the past days. Making like a right shoulder as we can see on the left.
The CN50 Better Hold 12,600So far the Chinese CN50 has worked off the hourly oversold condition poorly. A break of 12,600, and this could go down to fulfill the H&S top measuring objective.
The Hourly H&S Top Worked !The H&S top mentioned last week on Twitter worked well. This projects to around 12,600.
China50 doesn't look good.China 50 looks pretty bad. Hope it's nothing serious.
The MegaMACD consists of simple modifications to the normal MACD, and has all the trend nonsense taken out.
It's singularly useful to quantify the "strength" of impulses. If it's not doing what price is doing (like here), then something is awry.
There are other reasons to short this thing outside of the MegaMACD bear div, but those aren't included.
CN50 will go bull once again. Elliot Wave outlook. Possible end of a Zig Zag. will look for entry monday.
Death Cross/Golden Cross/Death Cross and back to POControl This serves as a supplement to my analysis:
-S&P 500 Bellwether-for-US-economic-recession-The-Inverted-Yield-Curve
The Inverted Yield Curve
To my base argument I now include data that show younger treasury bond yields are yielding more interest than older ones. This is known as the inverted yield curve.
While it might not seem like much at first glance, the inverted yield curve is actually a rare occurrence that can act as the bellwether for an economic recession.
Adding these data to my core argument:
The S&P 500 rallied by about 25% since bottoming on December 24, 2018 during the Q4 2018 financial market turmoil.
From the depths of despair, the market has climbed higher because the Federal Reserve , meeting this week, has stopped raising interest rates, and there may—or may not—be progress on trade.
It’s also very possible that the market was simply oversold in the low-liquidity month of December. But since the rally, pessimists have been warning that the S&P 500 will reverse course at any moment—just as they have through this entire bull market.
S&P 500 has yet to top its September high and many from TEAM BULL may not see a reason to sell. I can’t prove that this approach is wrong. However I do feel that the odds are favouring another major decline, and soon.
I am not implying the market will play out the same dismal way that my graph illustrates historically, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) would be naïve.
Waiting for news in US-China trade warWe have faced progress in talks, but we need to confirm what will be the new agreement in the two biggest powers
What role will this level play for China?I'm personally thinking Long for Chinese equities, but we will have to see how this price level holds up in the near-mid term.
See callout bubbles. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
China 50 hit target, and it's a 4H downtrend now. China 50 hit target, and it's a 4H downtrend now.
When other people started getting crazy, smart move is to cash out partially.
SELLSTOP IDEAA movement downward is possible. Do not forget to put stoploss above the Bearish Engulfing Bar.
Something interesting will happen with the Chinese Market BUY CHINA for an expected new trend to start next year around April 2019
