DXY - Market Structre DXY - Market Structre - long probability, simple and easy , clean chart, and use trade and risk managment
DXY trade ideas
DXY Daily T.F Forecast This is my forecast for DXY.The market is in Wave 3 of A and Waiting for pullback to wave 4 for a ride down to complete Wave A.Then will have a bigger correction to form Wave B followed by the final Wave C.
NOTE:This are my ideas and not trading advice.
Dollar Bullish To $118?! During the last update I said I remain bullish on the Dollar for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
$DXY IdeaWhen analyzing the weekly DXY chart, we identify the presence of two CRTs: one bullish and one bearish. However, the bearish CRT has a low probability of success due to the candle formation and the fact that the price is still in a discounted region within the range.
Given this, our initial expectation is for the price to drop at the beginning of the week to seek liquidity in the equilibrium region of the daily range, which coincides with the 50% level of the bearish CRT. This movement may act as a correction within the predominant trend, pushing the price up toward the premium region of the weekly range. From that point, we will once again look for selling opportunities, as the market may resume its downward movement.
Based on this analysis, we initially seek selling opportunities down to the equilibrium region. Once this level is reached, we will wait for confirmation of a bullish reversal to look for buying opportunities up to the 50% mark of the bullish CRT.
DXY:Pay attention to the retest of the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally declined. The intraday price peaked at 104.444, bottomed out at 103.917, and closed at 104.189.
From the perspective of the daily chart, the level of 103.80 below serves as a crucial watershed for the wave trend. As long as the price remains above this level, a short-term bullish position is advisable for the time being. Meanwhile, the short-term support of the four-hour chart is in the 104.10 area. Currently, the price in the short term is fluctuating and is likely to continue to retest the support area of the daily chart. Therefore, in trading operations, focus on the support of the daily chart and anticipate an upward movement.
Trading strategy:
buy@103.70-103.80
TP:104.50-105.00
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DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings.
📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact
Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY.
Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars.
💰 Money Supply Contraction
Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar.
📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates
Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar.
Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down.
in my opinion
the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength.
If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession.
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DXY Flow conceptsThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior.
Key Points:
1. Types of Flow:
- Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets.
- Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations.
2. Indicators of Flow:
- Range and direction of the bar.
- Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction).
- Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system.
3. Using Flow in Trading:
- Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations.
- It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP).
4. Energy and Strength:
- Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines).
- Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements.
5. Practical Applications:
- Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies.
- Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making.
Conclusion:
The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors.
Dollar Bullish To $118?!During the last market analysis I said I remain bullish on the DXY for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
Dxy aka usd 26 Mar 2025updated uptrend channel, price still bullish for usd as price break out earlier and stay above neckline, looking for more upside, ideally towards the supply region
Which if come true, eur, gbp etc should continue falling
If price do close below channel strongly, it could suggest a shift in trend.
Good luck
DXY 1H – Potential Sweep Before Uptrend ContinuationThe Dollar Index recently closed above a previous lower high, signaling a possible bullish trend continuation. However, the recent drop has only seen wicks covering the higher low, suggesting this may just be a liquidity sweep rather than a true bearish reversal.
📊 Key Observations:
✔ Higher Low Sweep: Current price action suggests liquidity is being grabbed before a potential move higher.
✔ Daily Structure: This move aligns with a possible sweep on the D1 timeframe, meaning a bullish reaction could be imminent.
🔎 Next Steps: Watching for bullish confirmation before taking long positions. If price reclaims support, a continuation toward higher levels is likely.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - Bearish Breakdown or Reversal?📊 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart Analysis
🔵 Supply Zone (104.400 - 104.683)
🟦 Resistance area where sellers may step in 📉
🟡 Key Level (~104.200)
🟧 Decision point – price struggling to hold this level
📉 Trend Line (Broken) 🔻
❌ Previous uptrend is broken, signaling potential bearish momentum
🟢 Demand Zone (103.200 - 103.400)
🟩 Support area where buyers may get active 📈
🚀 Potential Market Movement:
1️⃣ Bearish Breakdown Expected ⬇️
🔹 Price broke below trendline ➡️ selling pressure increasing
🔹 Possible pullback to key level (~104.200) before more downside
🔹 Targeting demand zone (~103.200-103.400) 🎯
2️⃣ Invalidation/Stop-Loss 🚫
🔺 If price moves back above 104.683, bearish setup is invalid
🔺 Stop-loss placed at 104.683 for risk management
🎯 Trading Strategy:
✅ Short Entry: After pullback near 104.200
🎯 Target: 103.200 demand zone
⚠️ Stop Loss: Above 104.683
US DOLLAR UPDATE4H demand zone was reached, and price initially reacted strongly with a bullish close. However, buyers lacked momentum, and with fundamentals like Friday’s UoM data coming in lower than forecast, confidence in the economy weakened, leading to a drop.
From a technical standpoint, price will seek lower demand, but for shorts to be confirmed, the invalidation point must be broken, not just spiked. Let’s wait and see how the market unfolds.
Blessings,
T
DXY - market structureDXY - market structure, long idea...use risk managment, i have some SL, a lot of BE and few target hit with big profit! risk and trade managment is the key !
DXY is finally ready to fall, Buy any XXXUSDIf you enter this exact trade, you wont be hit out.
Let me post so you see it on time and enter the trade.
DXY next possible moveWe are waiting for our asset to reach our action zone, and based on the reaction, we’ll decide on our next moves.ALWAYS WAIT FOR A CONFIRMATION TO SEE IF THE PRICE VALIDATES THE ZONE.and you what is your vision of the EURUSD its interests me! i wait you in the commentary
DXYUS Dollar Index
- Bearish Channel
- Break of Structure
- Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
- Order Block
- Change of Characteristics
Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over New TariffsThe U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure.
The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports.
Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices.
However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy.
Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions.
In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth.
Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term.
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FVG The priority FVG IS Near the 1.06-1.07 and the DXY IS IN A W PATTERN WHICH IA USUALLY BULLISH, SO WHAT I THINK THE DXY WILL HIT AROUND 1.06+ before being rejected to the downside, as history can and will repeat itself with the trump presidency. Although I've heard people say will go to the 1.22 range but that seems a little far fetched, anything is possible but it seems more likely for price to do a hard rally and then be rejected to the downside, but I'm a complete noob so take this as a grain of salt
Dollar Index 4hr analysisContinuing our scenario analysis and forecast on the weekly and daily timeframes, here are the reasons for which we believe that at the moment the most likely scenario to play out is scenario 1 (dollar strength), from now on or soon:
1. the flat most likely to play out in the daily is a regular flat (dark blue) because the flat inside it (light blue) is the one that looks most proper, or "ideal", as it has a perfect correction inside it to mark the b wave (marked by a circle, both on the chart and on the macd).
2. the contracting flat that you can see in part 2 of our daily analysis, is a terrible looking correction because even it it were a contracting flat, still the b wave inside it should be the most corrective piece, and it isn't.
3. there is growing divergence on the way down in this last move down on the 4hr, which indicates a potential turn.
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Dollar index bullish scenarioThe dollar index could continue the current bullish consolidation and recover to the 105.00 level. There we encounter resistance in the trend line and the EMA 200 moving average.
DXY:It is about to witness a quarterly declineBecause concerns about tariffs causing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have pushed down U.S. Treasury bond yields, the stock market, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The U.S. dollar is likely to experience a quarterly decline next week, and we can seize the opportunity to short on rebounds.
Trading strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
Dollar Index Technical AnalysisThe Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a key weekly resistance zone around 110.26, as shown in the chart. Here's a breakdown of the technical analysis:
Resistance at 110.26:
This level has acted as a critical barrier, causing the current pullback. The index has struggled to sustain momentum above this zone, indicating potential exhaustion for bulls.
Trend Reversal Signals:
The large rejection candles at resistance indicate seller dominance. If the weekly close remains below 109, we could see sustained bearish momentum.
Support Levels Below:
105.35–105.66: Key support zone acting as the next likely target for bears.
103.33–103.82: A significant level to watch if the decline accelerates, providing a potential buy zone.
Shift in COT Data:
The bearish shift in the COT index aligns with the resistance rejection, adding fundamental weight to the technical setup.
Outlook:
With Trump’s policy announcements expected soon, the DXY is at a critical turning point. A break below the immediate support at 108.79 could lead to a drop toward the 105 range. Conversely, if bulls defend this zone, we might see a retest of the 110 resistance.
Trade with caution, as geopolitical and policy events may drive volatility in the coming weeks.
