DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys,
The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level.
Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic.
Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY.
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DXY trade ideas
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation I've previously described the correlation, and it's clear to everyone: a weaker DXY is positive for BTC.
📝Recently, the dollar has grown significantly and seems close to a local maximum (the chart is inverted). This demonstrates the strength of Bitcoin, as it was able to rise even against a strengthening dollar.
💡Imagine its movement when the new administration plans to lower the dollar price like they did last time. I think we will see a similar scenario as in 2017, when the dollar, from a local maximum, begins to provide a tailwind to the movement of assets that trade against it.
DXY Is Bearish - But A Retest is Highly ProbableThere is no denying that the overall trend is still bearish. However, price is currently respecting an H4 demand zone - which might continue to apply pressure to the upside for a minor correction.
Of course, if this correction does not happen and the H4 demand zone breaks, then we continue to ride the trend to the downside and all the way to the next weekly TF demand zone.
#TheTrendIsYourFriend
DXY: Weekly OutlookWeekly DXY Outlook
On the weekly chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a critical zone that was last tested in February 2022.
While a rebound is not guaranteed, the fact that the DXY has declined nearly 12% over just six months—despite a resilient U.S. economy—suggests the potential for renewed strength in the dollar.
I think the index could begin a recovery toward key levels at 100.00, 101.97, and possibly 106.00/
It’s worth noting that the broader bearish trend began with the trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration, which strained relations with several major trading partners.
Given that this is a weekly chart, it should be used more as a reference point rather than a trading signal.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
DXY at the Crossroads: How the 108–110 could reshape the market
Key Highlights
The U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY is currently near an important resistance level of 108–110.
A potential reversal of the dollar at this level could lead to further growth in stock markets and strengthen cryptocurrencies, while a break above 110+ would continue to put pressure on risk assets.
If CAPITALCOM:DXY surpasses 110 and holds above it, there is a possibility of reaching as high as the 120 mark. A rejection from the 108–110 zone would indicate a downward trend developing, possibly pushing the index toward the 98 area or lower.
Future outcomes will depend on Federal Reserve monetary policy, global demand for the dollar and other safe-haven assets, as well as overall economic stability.
What about crypto?
There are serious risks for CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 & CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
A long-term perspective on ICEUS:DXY suggests that “alt seasons” tend to occur during periods of dollar weakness. Currently, the 108–110 zone and the MA50-W are pivotal. A potential DXY reversal here may act as a catalyst for another major altcoin rally in the coming months, while continued dollar strength could postpone any such “alt season.”
Shaka
Could we see the price rise from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is also a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 97.10
1st Support: 96.70
1st Resistance: 97.77
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD Roadmap: Bullish Recovery or Structural Breakdown?TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
🟢 Scenario A – Bullish Rebound (Red Arrow Up):
Price bounces from the lower channel and breaks toward:
107.348, 110.176, or even 111.901 resistance area.
If the dollar is supported by China buying USD, hawkish Fed, or geopolitical tensions, this scenario gains weight.
🔸 Resistance: Blue downward-sloping line (possible trendline resistance or lower high area)
🔸 Risk: Price could form a lower high and then reverse.
🔴 Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown (Red Arrow Down):
If the USD fails to break above resistance (around 107–112) and gets rejected…
Then we see a move back down, possibly breaking the long-term channel, aiming for the lower diagonal support zone or even sub-92.
🔸 This would signal a major shift in USD strength, possibly driven by:
Fed rate cuts
Global de-dollarization
China not supporting USD
Stronger EUR or CNY
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.80
1st Support: 95.40
1st Resistance: 99.36
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY (Dollar Index) longs to shortsThe dollar has been bearish for several weeks, but we’re now starting to see signs of a potential retracement due to price being in oversold territory. Last week, DXY reacted from a key weekly demand level, suggesting that we could see some short-term bullish movement before any continuation to the downside.
I’ll be watching closely for price to either push higher into liquidity or retrace slightly deeper into more discounted demand zones for a cleaner long setup. This would also align with my short setups across other major pairs, making DXY strength a key narrative this week.
Confluences for DXY Longs:
DXY has been bearish for an extended period — now showing signs of accumulation on higher timeframes
Price may retrace upwards to collect liquidity before continuing its macro downtrend
Recently reacted from a major weekly demand zone
Imbalances and liquidity above, including Asia highs, remain untapped
P.S. If price fails to react from any of my current POIs, I’ll patiently wait for new zones to develop and adjust accordingly — always staying aligned with what price tells us.
Let’s stay sharp and crush the week ahead!
DXY Bullish Reversal Setup Toward 98.20 Target Entry Point
Marked at: ~97.200
The price has already reacted multiple times around this level, suggesting it's a key support zone.
🛑 Stop Loss
Placed at: ~96.930
Just below the support zone, protecting against a breakdown below recent lows.
This implies a risk of about 27 pips from the entry.
🎯 Target Point (TP)
Marked at: ~98.201
Strong resistance zone from previous price action.
Target implies a potential reward of 100+ pips, offering a risk-reward ratio (RRR) of ~3.7:1, which is favorable.
📊 Resistance Area
Around 97.419–97.465
This is the first obstacle the price must break through to confirm bullish continuation.
The 200 EMA (blue curve) is currently acting as dynamic resistance, aligning near this zone.
📉 Indicators
Moving Averages:
Red: Likely 50 EMA
Blue: Likely 200 EMA
Price is currently below both EMAs — so trend is still bearish, but trying to shift.
📌 Strategy Insight
The setup anticipates a bullish reversal from 97.200, aiming for a breakout above the 200 EMA and resistance to reach the 98.201 zone.
For confirmation, watch for a strong bullish candle close above 97.465, which would validate upside continuation.
⚠️ Risks
Price is still under both moving averages → downward momentum may persist.
If support at 97.00 breaks, downside acceleration could occur.
✅ Conclusion:
This is a bullish breakout setup on DXY with:
Defined entry and stop-loss.
Clear target.
High RRR.
But it’s crucial to wait for confirmation above resistance (97.465) before full conviction on the long trade.
Risk On! The US Dollar Is Weak! Buy The Major Pairs!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 29 - July 4th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
Investors are taken money out of safe havens and putting it into risk assets. The US Dollar saw those outflows last week, and we are likely to see that continue going into this week.
Buy the EUR, GBP and CHF vs USD. JPY should also see some upside.
The AUD and NZD continue to grind upwards as well.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Dollar Testing The Channel Support It’s already Friday and the 4th of July, so US holidays are here, which means we could see thinner trading conditions later today. Still, the overall tone remains risk-on since yesterday, supported by better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and an ISM services reading at 50.8—still in expansion territory. So, there’s some optimism in the market, and this could continue if we get a positive outcome on the tariff front ahead of the July 9th deadline.
On the back of strong economic data, US yields are moving higher, but the Dollar Index is trying to come lower. It’s currently retesting the lower trendline of a corrective channel—likely due to the strong rally in US stock indexes, which are keeping the dollar under pressure.
On the daily chart, the Dollar Index still looks like it could head to new lows, but that move may not come today if holiday conditions slow down the market. We might have to wait until next week for a clearer breakout.
GH
DXYDXY price has come down to test the important support zone 96-95. If the price cannot break through the 95 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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dollar elliott wave countingdxy is falling since it peaked in Q4 2022
since their last 75bps hike dollar is constantly falling and stocks, gold, bitcoin constantly rising and making new all time high
wave W = wave Y
(equal in length, 100% projection for wave Y)
since starting of the year due to trump tariff dollar is falling
this is year in first half dollar saw biggest collapse since end of gold standard
now 100% projection target for wave Y at 95 area is big static support level
if dxy recover back to 100 area then this will be first sign of reversal
just slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLYjust slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLY\
bullish. so very bullish
let us know!
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Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below.
Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9.
Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.