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Fundamentals Support Dollar’s Potential Trend ReversalThe dollar appears to be reversing its direction on the 4-hour timeframe. The trendline has been broken and retested twice, but the dollar has held above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Despite intense pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve, the data is likely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the upcoming meeting and possibly at the one after that. A potential rate cut in September will largely depend on incoming inflation and labor market data. The inflation impact of tariffs became more visible in the latest CPI report, but the effect is still relatively modest. This aligns with our theory that tariff-driven inflation will build gradually and persist over a longer period, rather than cause an immediate spike. Meanwhile, the labor market has not shown clear signs of rapid weakening, so there is no strong case for a rate cut from that side either. The Financial Conditions Index also indicates that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side. Bloomberg financial conditions index is at highest level since March. As markets increasingly recognize that no rate cuts are likely in the near term, and with the August 1 tariff deadline approaching amid potential rising risks of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, the dollar may gain further support. The U.S.–EU bond market spread also does not favor a stronger euro at the moment, adding to the dollar's upside potential. In the short term, 98.10 and 98.53 are immediate support and resistance levels. If the dollar breaks above 98.53 again, upward momentum may strengthen and open the path toward the 100 level.
TVC:DXYLong
by ftdsystem
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback. The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs. If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target. Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD. Take care until the next update!
TVC:DXY
by FundedTraderMarkets
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart Analysis **Current Trend:** Bearish Price trades below EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud, and within a bearish channel. #**Bearish Scenario (Favorable)** * **Conditions:** * Price remains below EMA 7 & 21 * Stays under Ichimoku Cloud and 96.812 resistance (R1) * Lower lows forming, bearish momentum increasing * **Confirmation:** Break below **96.37 (blue zone)** * **Target:** * TP1: 96.00 * TP2: 95.60 (next weak support) **Bullish Scenario (Reversal)** * **Conditions:** * Price must break above **96.81 (EMA 7 + resistance)** * Break above **R1 → 96.90**, and then above **R2 → 97.14–97.19** * Bullish candles close above the Ichimoku cloud * **Confirmation:** Break and retest of **97.20** * **Target:** * TP1: 97.39 * TP2: 97.58 (key structure) * TP3: 98.00 (major resistance) **Bias:** Bearish unless DXY breaks above **97.20** with strong volume and bullish structure.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Harry_Megat
DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys, The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level. Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic. Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by TraderTilki
8
DXY – The Trap Is Set. The Drop Is Coming.Wave structure complete. Retail thinks we’re going up. I know where it’s really going. This is GreenFire Execution, not prediction. 🧠 Final liquidity hunt possibly toward 98.76 or even 101.40, then lights out. Targeting the big liquidity pocket at 95.215 That’s where legends buy while the crowd panics. 📐 Elliott Wave | Wedge Mastery | Market Psychology If you understand this chart — you don’t need signals. You need silence and execution. #DXYSetup | #Wave5Ready | #SmartMoney | #ForexMillionaire | #TradingViewElite
TVC:DXYShort
by Greenfireforex
DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives**DXY Chart Outlook: Trend, Support, and Price Objectives (Reworded Analysis)** **Trend Overview** * The DXY chart reflects a **clear upward trajectory**, characterized by a sequence of **ascending highs and higher lows** — a classic sign of bullish momentum. * Currently, the price is **retracing toward the 50-day EMA**, which appears to be holding as **dynamic support**. * Two important **horizontal support zones** are marked: * **Support 1 (S1):** \~97.400 (aligned with EMA-50) * **Support 2 (S2):** \~96.800 (a deeper correction level) **Projected Price Zones** * **Near-Term Objective:** **98.800 to 99.000** * A rebound from the EMA or S1 could send price higher toward this zone, continuing the current bullish structure. * **Mid-Term Target:** **99.200 to 99.400** * If the price successfully clears the 99.000 resistance, further bullish continuation could aim for this intermediate target range. * **Extended Target:** **100.000+** * A sustained breakout beyond 99.400 could open the path toward **psychological resistance at 100.000**, possibly higher on strong momentum. **Support Zones to Watch** * **S1 (97.400):** This level coincides with the 50-day EMA and represents a **first line of defense**. * **S2 (96.800):** Should the price fall below S1, this secondary level could provide **stronger support** and potential bounce opportunity. **Risk Management** * Consider placing a **protective stop** just below S2 — around **96.500** — to safeguard against a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. **Summary** * The DXY remains **technically bullish**, with potential upside targets at **98.800**, **99.400**, and eventually **100.000+**. * Traders can monitor **S1 and S2** for potential entries or trend confirmation. * A **breakdown below 96.500** would invalidate the bullish setup and warrant caution.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Harry_Megat
US Dollar Breakdown – Don’t Fight the FloodSince the start of the year, after forming a small double top around the 110 zone, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has followed only one direction: down. So far, we’re seeing a decline that’s approaching 15%, with the index breaking multiple major support levels along the way. And judging by the current structure, there’s little reason to believe this trend will reverse any time soon. ________________________________________ 🔍 Short-Term View – Flag Break, More Losses Ahead Zooming in, we can observe that the last rally was purely corrective — a typical bear flag formation. That flag is now broken to the downside, which confirms renewed bearish pressure and suggests that further losses are likely even in the short term. ________________________________________ 🎯 What’s Next? The next major support zone sits around 95, a level that should act as a magnet if the current trend continues. As long as price stays under 100 ZONE, the outlook remains bearish and the strategy should align with that bias. ________________________________________ ✅ Strategy Going Forward The safe and logical approach now is to buy dips on major USD pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD ________________________________________ 📌 Final Thought The structure is clear, momentum favors the downside, and the market is offering clean setups across multiple USD pairs. Don’t fight the trend — follow the flow. 🟢
TVC:DXYShort
by Mihai_Iacob
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 97.00 1st Support: 96.48 1st Resistance: 97.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY SHORT? ## 📉 **DXY Bearish Setup for 2025 – Fed Cuts, Fiscal Strain, Technical Breakdown** ### 🧠 Thesis The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised to remain under pressure through the rest of 2025 due to macro, policy, and technical headwinds. With the Fed preparing for multiple rate cuts, rising fiscal imbalances, and a strong global diversification away from USD, the broader trend points **downward**. --- ### 🔍 Fundamentals Driving USD Weakness * **Federal Reserve Pivot**: 2–3 rate cuts expected in 2025 → erodes USD yield advantage. * **Surging U.S. Deficits**: Debt-to-GDP nearing 130%, undermining investor confidence. * **De-dollarization Trend**: Central banks diversifying reserves (yuan, gold, euro). * **Political Noise**: Tariff risk + weak-dollar narrative from Trump camp adds pressure. --- ### 📊 Technical Outlook (1D/1W Charts) * DXY is trading below **9/20/50 EMA**. * RSI \~43 with hidden bearish divergence. * Clear **descending channel** since mid-2024. * Key **support zone: 97.90 – 96.40**. * Below 97.90 opens path toward 96.00–95.00. --- ### 🛠️ Trade Setup | Type | Short (swing/position) | | -------- | ---------------------- | | Entry | Break below 98.00 | | Target 1 | 96.40 | | Target 2 | 95.00 | | SL | Above 99.50 | | R\:R | \~2.5:1 | --- ### ⚠️ Risks * Surprise inflation → Fed pauses cuts * Safe haven bid from geopolitical shocks * Strong upside breakout >101.00 = trend invalidation --- ### 💬 Final Note As long as DXY remains below 99.50, rallies are selling opportunities. Watch the 97.90–98.00 level — a confirmed breakdown could mark a fresh leg lower toward 95.00 by year-end. --- ### 🏷️ Tags `#DXY` `#USD` `#DollarIndex` `#Forex` `#Macro` `#Bearish` `#TradingSetup` `#ShortUSD` ---
ICEUS:DXYShort
by Hare_Krishna_1000000000
U.S. Dollar Index Loses Key Support – Crypto Bull Run Loading?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has just broken below a long-term ascending channel, which has held since 2008. After losing the key horizontal support (~100 level), DXY retested and rejected from it (red circle), confirming a potential trend reversal. The move is technically significant and hints at further downside, possibly toward the 88–90 zone or lower. This breakdown aligns with classic macro cycles, where a weaker dollar often fuels bullish momentum in risk assets, especially crypto. Historically: -DXY downtrends in 2017 and 2020–2021 coincided with major Bitcoin and altcoin bull runs. -DXY strength during 2018 and 2022 contributed to crypto bear markets. With DXY now below both horizontal and diagonal support, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be entering the next expansion phase, especially if the dollar continues its downward trajectory -DXY has broken below a 17 year rising channel – a macro bearish signal. -Rejection from former support turned resistance confirms breakdown. -A falling DXY historically corresponds with Bitcoin rallies and altseason expansions. -Declining dollar strength could be the fuel that propels Bitcoin past $140K and Ethereum above $6K. -A dollar bear trend may fuel total crypto market cap breakout beyond $4T+. As DXY weakens, liquidity tends to rotate into risk-on assets like crypto. This setup mirrors pre-bull run environments seen in 2017 and 2020. A structural breakdown in the dollar could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major leg up. Cheers Hexa
TVC:DXYShort
by HexaTrades
2