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Dollar Index - We Are Seeing Heaviness To The DownsideIt is important to note that although we have recently seen huge decline in the dollar, there is still a possibility for a minor relief rally into the monthly BISI which is now a inverted FVG @ 104.636 - 104.420 which could seek out small movements to the downside for GBPUSD and EURUSD. Fully aware that dollar can continue to present risk on conditions, taking out 103.373 lows and making its way into the longer term monthly bias of the 101.917 - 103.373 FVG.
TVC:DXYLong
by LegendSince
1
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Bearish Outlook – Key Levels & PredictioDXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Analysis – Daily Chart 🔹 Recent Downtrend: The DXY has been in a strong decline ⬇️ after breaking key support around 104.5 📉. The price dropped sharply, showing bearish momentum 🚨. 🔹 Key Zones Identified: Resistance Zone (104.0 – 105.0) ❌📊 (Previously support, now acting as resistance) Support Zone (100.5 – 101.0) ✅📉 (Potential target for further downside) 🔹 Expected Price Movement: A possible short-term bounce 🔄 back toward the 104.0 - 104.5 resistance ⚠️. If rejected ❌, the downtrend may continue toward the 100.5 – 101.0 level 🎯📉. 🔎 Conclusion: ✅ Bearish Bias – Trend favors further downside unless the price reclaims 105.0. 📌 Watch for a retracement before another drop 📉. 📊 Key Levels: Resistance: 104.0 – 105.0 🚧 Support: 100.5 – 101.0 🛑
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
Investors Brace for US CPI Inflation Data Amid Increasing Trade Market participants will closely monitor February’s CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index), scheduled to be released tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT. The consensus anticipates that headline and core metrics will demonstrate signs of cooling. Economists anticipate that year-on-year CPI inflation has eased to 2.9% (down from 3.0% in January) and that core inflation has cooled to 3.2% (from 3.3% in January). Between January and February, month-on-month headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.3% (down from 0.5%), with the core reading also forecast to cool to 0.3% (from 0.4%). Most will probably agree that US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs is challenging to keep track of, and the uncertainty is impacting risk assets. Last Tuesday, the US administration imposed levies on three of America’s largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China, only to see some goods exempted the following day (for one month), with additional items added to the exempted list on Thursday of the same week. During an interview with Fox News on Sunday, uncertainty mounted when Trump sidestepped whether he was expecting a recession this year, stating ‘he hates to predict things like that’ and adding that there would be a ‘period of transition’. As a result of tariffs enforced in February, this week’s CPI inflation release could be a turning point. Although tariffs did not take effect in February (except for China), given the 30-day reprieve, businesses have been preparing to bear tariffs by raising prices. Both the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) showed that the prices paid sub-indexes pushed higher. While the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.3 from January’s reading of 50.9 – along with the employment and new orders indexes dipping into contractionary territory to 47.6 and 48.6, respectively – the prices paid index surged to the upside, coming in at 62.4 from 54.9 in January. If this week’s report indicates rising price pressures, I believe this presents a noteworthy upside risk to inflation, potentially influencing rate pricing, which may result in a bid in US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD). Fed Unlikely to Move Based on February’s CPI Print Should data report as expected, although this would mark signs of cooling inflation, it provides the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with little incentive to begin easing policy at this juncture given the current uncertainty ahead. According to market pricing, this month’s meeting (19 March) will unlikely see any rate adjustment; investors currently have their eye on June’s meeting for the next 25 basis point (bp) cut (-34 bps). As a note, Fed speak will be limited until the next meeting as the central bank limits the extent to which Fed officials speak publicly – known as the ‘blackout period’. Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made the headlines on Friday. Speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates, commenting: ‘Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate’. Precipitous USD Decline As per the US Dollar Index, the USD is down nearly 4% this month, and, according to the monthly chart, sellers could strengthen their grip at least until reaching the 50-month simple moving average at 101.72. A similar picture is seen on the daily chart following the breach of support from 103.94 (now marked resistance); an absence of support is reasonably clear until 101.92, levels not seen since October 2024. So, given the lack of support on the bigger picture, any pullbacks will likely be sold into until price action reaches possible support between 101.72 and 101.92. Lower-than-expected data, of course, would likely support USD downside and see investors increase rate cut bets, though should data surprise to the upside, this could see an unwind in short positions (note that positioning is also relatively overstretched to the downside) as traders seek mean-reversion strategies. On the other hand, although a short-term burst to the upside could be seen, this may be tricky as an increase in price pressures could also stimulate stagflation concerns. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Technical Levels & Market OutlookU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Chart Analysis 📊💵 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently navigating a critical price structure, with key supply and demand zones influencing market direction. Here’s a professional breakdown of the chart’s technical outlook: 📍 Key Technical Insights ✅ Supply & Demand Zones Supply Zone (Resistance): 109 - 114 📈 – A key area where selling pressure has historically emerged. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further upside potential. Demand Zone (Support): 100 - 103 📉 – A strong accumulation zone where buyers have stepped in previously. A breakdown below could indicate a shift in market sentiment. ✅ Market Structure & Momentum A Break of Structure (BOSS) has been identified, signaling a shift in trend dynamics. The market is currently ranging between major resistance (~109) and support (~100). ✅ 200-Month Moving Average 📊 The long-term moving average (red line) is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias unless decisively breached. 📊 Potential Scenarios 🔹 Bullish Outlook: If DXY maintains support above 100-103 and breaks past 109, the index could aim for 114+ in the coming months. 🚀 🔹 Bearish Risk: A sustained drop below 100 may open the door for further downside towards 95-89, signaling a broader correction. ⚠️ 📌 Conclusion The DXY remains in a consolidation phase, with key inflection points around 103 (support) and 109 (resistance). A breakout or breakdown from this range will determine the next major trend. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
TVC:DXYLong
by MrStellanSight
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone. In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established. Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
TVC:DXY
by Aleksin_Aleksandar
DXY USDTrend Overview: The DXY has been in a strong bullish trend recently, driven by market sentiment favoring the US dollar due to strong economic data and expectations of continued Federal Reserve hawkishness. The index has shown resilience at key support levels and is trending upward. Current Price Action: The DXY is currently trading around the 104.20-104.50 level (assuming recent data), with the potential for a move toward the 106 zone, which is a key resistance area. Support and Resistance Zones: Key Resistance Levels: The 106.00 zone is the key resistance area. This is a major psychological level as well as a technical level from previous price action. A break above this level would suggest further bullish momentum toward 107.50 or even higher. Intermediate Resistance: The 105.50 zone could be an interim resistance level that needs to be overcome before targeting 106.00.
TVC:DXYLong
by ElSalehTrading
Intermarket analysis, Gold the perfect SAFE HEAVENThe image shows the comparative performance of various assets, with gold being the only one in positive territory at +8.70% while everything else has declined. Gold: +8.70% (showing strong upward trend) S&P 500: -4.13% (showing significant decline) USD: -1.89% (US Dollar Index showing weakness) Oil: -9.76% (substantial drop) BTC (Bitcoin): -17.83% (showing the steepest decline of all assets tracked) Gold indeed appears to be fulfilling its traditional role as a "safe haven" asset during market turbulence. During periods of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often flock to gold as a store of value, which seems to be happening in early 2025 according to this chart. The timeline shown covers January through early March 2025, and the divergence between gold and other assets became particularly pronounced from mid-February onward. This pattern suggests investors seeking safety amid broader market declines.
TVC:DXYLong
by Moshkelgosha
U.S Dollar Technical analysis.The image is a technical analysis chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here’s what it represents: Downtrend Line: A blue trendline shows a previous downward trend. Support Zone: A purple rectangular box highlights a support level around 103.654–103.363. Breakout and Retest: The price appears to have broken out of the downtrend and is forming a potential bullish setup. Projected Move: A blue arrow suggests a bullish breakout after a possible retest of the support zone. Target Level: The projected upside target is approximately 105.204. Economic Event Indicators: U.S. flag icons at the bottom suggest upcoming fundamental events that might impact the price. This analysis suggests that traders anticipate a reversal from the support zone, aiming for higher price levels. Let me know if you need further insights!
TVC:DXYLong
by MrJacki45
DXY Breakdown: Major Support in Play or More Downside Ahead?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic , and let's kick off the week with a unique and exciting analysis of DXY. 🔍 Daily Time Frame Analysis Starting with the daily time frame, DXY recently hit a significant peak at 109.655 , followed by a sharp decline, breaking below the critical support zone at 107.405 . This breakdown resulted in forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish structure. Afterward, DXY retraced sharply to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of its major uptrend, signaling a potential corrective phase. Although the sentiment remains bearish for now, we must consider the possibility of a price reversal from this crucial support zone. ⏳ 4H Time Frame Analysis Now, moving to the 4-hour time frame, as discussed in the previous analysis, we anticipated a breakdown of 104.235 , which indeed played out, hitting our target of 103.398 . Currently, the 104.235 level serves as a 4H resistance, while 103.303 acts as a daily support. These two levels form our main triggers: 💚 Long Trigger: Above 104.259 (confirming a potential reversal) 🔴 Short Trigger: Below 103.303 (aligned with the short-term downtrend) The short trigger has a higher win rate and risk-to-reward ratio since it aligns with the ongoing bearish trend. 💡 Final Thoughts Thanks for sticking with me through this analysis! I hope your week ahead is profitable and insightful. Remember, planning and executing trades with clarity is the key to long-term success. Catch you on the next breakdown! 🚀
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
Strange Event in the DollarLast week had one of the strangest events of all time: simultaneous declines in the U.S. dollar index and the S&P 500. This weekly chart includes a special script that calculates the simple change of the main symbol (DXY) and a second symbol (SPX). If they both move in the same direction by a user-defined threshold, the script plots a white arrow in the lower study. Big, coordinated drops are unusual because the two indexes typically move in opposite directions. SPX is a “risk” asset while DXY is a “safe haven.” That’s why stock-market selloffs often see the U.S. dollar rally. Since the data began in 1967, coordinated declines of at least 2 percent have only happened 15 times. This highlights the normal inverse relationship. Adjusting the script’s threshold to -3 percent, we find last week was one of only two on record with coordinated declines of that magnitude. In other words, markets just saw a historic coordinated weakness in both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. European and Chinese benchmarks rallied at the same time, which suggests it wasn’t a pure “risk off” move. These events occur against the backdrop of tariffs and hopes of increased German defense spending. They potentially suggest investors see more opportunity overseas following years of American exceptionalism. The only other time DXY and SPX fell so sharply at the same time was in September 1981. That instance was less meaningful because it was just a quick pullback in the midst of a strong uptrend. Last week, on the other hand, DXY was stuck below an earlier high and could be trending lower. Investors may view this as a freak event. Or they may think it’s a sign of capital moving away from the U.S. Either way, it’s an unusual signal that could merit watching. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:DXY
by TradeStation
1
DXY Index: Wave Analysis & ForecastHi tradars! Based on the DXY index, considering the deep overbought conditions on the 4-hour timeframe and the reversal of indicators on the 1-hour timeframe, we can assume that subwave ((iii) within the larger third wave has now been formed. It reached approximately 100% of subwave ((i)), and in the coming week, we expect the development of wave 4. After that, likely next week—closer to the Federal Reserve meeting—we could see the continuation of the bearish rally in DXY from around the 104.70 level. Currently, the chart displays the primary wave count. Let’s see if this scenario plays out. #DSI #WaveAnalysis #Forex #Trading #FedMeeting
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AUREA_RATIO
DXY OUTLOOK SECOND WEEK OF MARCHShort-Term Outlook (This Week): Recent trends indicate the dollar has been under pressure. This is partly due to shifting market expectations regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts. Therefore, in the short term, there is a possibility that the DXY will remain weak. Monitoring of upcoming economic data releases will be very important. Longer-Term Outlook (Going Forward): The long-term direction of the DXY will depend on the interplay of the factors mentioned above. If the Fed begins to cut rates, the dollar is likely to weaken. However, if global economic uncertainty increases, the dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status. Also, political events, especially those related to the upcoming U.S. elections, can cause large swings in the DXY.
TVC:DXYShort
by THEPROTRADERZA
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 104.42 1st Support: 102.65 1st Resistance: 105.26 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1