HSI neutral but more short: Potential shortThis is just a potential bearish count where the movement up is considered a corrective wave. However, due to the strength of the impulse moves up, I will recommend that if you short, put a tight stop.
HK50 trade ideas
5 Reasons Why China Stocks Are Falling
-Thin Trading Volumes
-Uncertain of the timing in rate cuts
-Japan stocks are on poor performance
-China's Index has fallen by -0.9%
-Chinese stocks are the worst performers in Asia this year
Also take note of the rocket booster strategy on this chart
because this strategy can also be used to study the index markets.
From the chart above you can see the this index market is in
a down trend.
To learn more rocket boost this content.
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They hate us cuz they aint us. Hk index got raped by foreign investments to a point where it is at 1997 level. The chinese were able to walk out of the cultural revolution they can certainly get out of this. Yes, obviously if u walk around hk or look into the news its bleak guess what in 2008 it looked bleaker than it is now. Opportunity for 2024 is everywhere def a chart to look at.
Hang Seng long term buyTVC:HSI
The Hang Seng Index is priming up for a long term buy opportunity. It may have already bottomed, having bounced off the support line from the 2000 crash. However, weakness in US stock markets (notably the QQQ and the SPX) suggests that we may get a global equities sell off in early 2024. If this happens, and the Hang Seng retests its support then this would be an excellent entry point. You could also dollar cost average at these prices.
The Dragon Awakening: China's Stock Market Set for GrowthThe Chinese stock market has been volatile in recent years, but there are signs that it is on the verge of a major rebound. The government is implementing a number of reforms that are aimed at boosting economic growth and investor confidence. These reforms include tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and measures to support small and medium-sized businesses.
As a result of these reforms, there is a growing sense that China's stock market is undervalued. This is reflected in the fact that the MSCI China Index, which tracks the performance of Chinese stocks, is currently trading at a discount to the MSCI World Index, which tracks the performance of stocks in developed markets.
Investors who are looking for long-term growth opportunities should consider investing in Chinese stocks. The country has a large and growing economy, and its stock market is poised for a major rebound.
Here are some of the reasons why China's stock market is set for growth:
The Chinese economy is growing at a rapid pace. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2023, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
The Chinese government is committed to supporting the stock market. The government has implemented a number of reforms that are aimed at improving the environment for investors. These reforms include measures to increase transparency and protect investors from fraud.
The Chinese consumer is growing in affluence. The Chinese consumer class is growing rapidly, and this is creating strong demand for goods and services. This is a positive sign for the Chinese economy and its stock market.
Investors who are considering investing in Chinese stocks should carefully research their investment options and consult with a financial advisor.
A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation.
Youth unemployment
While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate.
Demographics and fertility
Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018.
China’s deflation
As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009.
Housing prices
Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
HSI Short: Target ~15000This is a short update to HSI. I will expect that the burst up today is a corrective wave 4 and for the next 2 weeks, a correction down to 15000.
HSI Short: Target 15000 till EOY 2023My previous analysis of the Hang Seng Index was invalidated. And now I've done a revamp of the wave counts for 2023.
This is the summary:
1. Hang Seng will continue to fall either till Christmas or EOY.
2. Target support, or end of correction, will be 14980-15100. Look out for this support zone.
HK50 ANALYSISHK50 has spent much of 2023 in a parallel channel that i am counting as a double two. The market has retraced to the .768 of the impulsive wave A. Wave C is currently unfolding.
A rally is coming near you.......How high will it rally this time ? Only time will tell........
Will you be a spectator or making profits and laughing to the bank ?
Hong Kong to continue in the downward move?HS50 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 16228 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 16665 level.
We look to Sell at 16665 (stop at 16825)
Our profit targets will be 16265 and 16185
Resistance: 16810 / 17150 / 17420
Support: 16380 / 16150 / 15830
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HK50: Bullish Strong support formed, looking for a break higher with the rest of the world approaching ATHs. It's likely the property sector will likely receive some government support soon which should boost the sentiment.
Hang Seng Index: Pending Explosive Move UpIn this analysis, I talk about how I used Elliott Waves to count the moves of Hang Seng Index from Jan 2018 to 24th Nov 2023.
The main points to take note are these:
1. The corrective move down in 2023 is over.
2. We are still in a minor corrective move down.
3. But a wave 3 up is round the corner and that it will be an explosive one.
4. The risk is low for this bullish trade.
HSI Long: Update to Elliott Wave Counts (end of correction)A quick update to the HSI Elliott Wave counts that could potentially signal the end of the entire down move.
Hang Seng SetupsLooking for turnarounds or pivot points at the rectangles which are projected potential support and resistance zones. Preferred Japanese Candlesticks Patterns for potential pivot points are Harami and Engulfing patterns, but others will be taken into consideration.
Icons are potential price predictions which don't require a pivot point specifically at a rectangle in order to be taken into consideration as a target for a trade from a candlestick pattern that could signal a turnaround.
HSI went ballastic yesterday and traders went wild !So, HSI rallied more than 600 points yesterday ! Wow, it went to a high of 18103 , exceeding the 18,000 price level that I said must sustain above for the rally to continue.
We are currently 186 point down, having recovered much better than this morning with 300 points negative.
The meeting with President Biden and Xi was a good stimulus to the overall market. (read here )
Property market remain in the doldrum todate (read here ) though there are measures being introduced but much to the disappointment of many who feels it is inadequate.
Consumer confidence remains low and we are not seeing huge spending even on Singles Day.
I am patiently awaiting ......
Is HSI out of the woods yet ?From the chart, we can see the orange circle showing a series of multiple lows for the entire 2023. But the last circle in green , dated 1 Nov 23 could be a turning point.
Before we get too excited, a few things need to happen.
1. 1 Nov low was 17110 followed by 17, 193 on 10 Nov - a good sign
2. 6 Nov peak was 17,954 and the next few days has to surpassed this level to near 18,000 price level in order to confirm the change of trend within the channel.
3. Note that overall trend is still bearish in the wider channel (red) and until the price of 18,500 is breached, we can't say for sure that a bullish trend is established. The early adopters may have already park some funds to ride up but I think many consumer investors are still wary and uncertain of the overall direction.
So, be patient and watch the trend, read the news, etc.
HK50 Bear Trap - Going Up.HK50 consolidated all Friday.
And shows a Bear Trap on Monday Tokyo open.
Huge divergence.
This is a textbook setup.
I wont be surprised if it Goes Up!!!
HSI Buyers FireWallthe detail is shown in the above Idea.
I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Fibonacci Tool.
buyers are burned in red rectangle (0.5- 0.618 golden level retracement )
therefore we can expect that HSI index decrease step by step to 1.27 F to 1.618 F and Level 2 Is Spring of HSI Exchange.
HONG KONG joins the bull marketThe HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.
The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022.
In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5 wave advance completed in Jan 2023, and since then, till the very recent low of Oct.2023 the Index corrected 61.8% of the entire Wave 1 rise.
Now however, the Index is ready give a massive 40-45% up move as the Wave 3 unfolds itself going forward into 2024-2025.
Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
