IT40 trade ideas
FTSEMIB - Negative Bias Continues Our bias on the Italian stock market continues to be short. The deadline for presenting an acceaptable budget to the EU is Oct. 15th, and no progress has been made. Italy still remains on an opposing foot and thus the markets are maintaining the pressure on Italian stocks.
FTSEMIB, FTSE MIB Index - Potential Breakout on ParabolaINDEX:FTSEMIB
The parabolic support guides us on a possible breakage of this resistance on the Italian index would make very interesting from the point of view of Risk Reward this potential trade since from that level onwards would meet much less resistance giving confidence to buyers to ride a possible trend.
Set alerts!
Stay Tuned!
FTSE MIB - Buy intraday pullbacks!The Italian political scene
seems to be calming down
with some kind of agreement
between 5-Star movement and
the Democratic Party.
Traders would very much like to
see the cautious DP back in power
as they would likely defuse the tension
between Italy and Brussles.
We like continued upside today, with the
US being away for Labour Day.
Buy intraday dips ahead of the continuation
level.
FTSE MIB - Sell Rallies as Political Uncertainty Rises!European Indices trading lower across the board,
with the FTSE MIB under-performing due to
Banking sector as BTP yields rise sharply. Italy
Dep PM Salvini is calling for a General Election
Sell on pullbacks towards the most recent support
zone, looking for 19600s.
FTSE MIB - Continuation Breakout in Play!The risk of a battle between the EU and Italy is looming after the EU signalled the
launch of an EDP on the deviation of Italy’s 2018 fiscal figures from the EU targets.
Statements from the Italian government suggest Italy will not stand down.
Sell at market, since we have broken through the continuation point!
FTSE MIB - Looking to Short on Pullbacks!Italian markets came under strong pressure yesterday as
Bloomberg ran a story that the EUCommission June 5th will
consider a disciplinary procedure over Italy’s failure to rein
in debt. An Excessive deficit Procedure is a lengthy process,
but if the story is true, the standoff between Italy and the
EU that we had expected in the autumn could start much
earlier.
We remain with a negative bias on FTSEMIB and BTPs.
Sell short-term pullbacks today.
FTSEMIB - Strong Selling on Italian Political Issues!Bloomberg reported that Italian PM Conte accused Salvini of bringing down the coalition government in an end to a bad week for the Italian bond market. Meanwhile ramped up tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment.
Technically we have dropped through our first target and selling continues. We favour continuation breaks to the downside today.
FTSEMIB - Downtrend Intact, Consider AddingItaly's stock market is the weakling in Europe due to the risk-off sentiment and on the back of the downward revision of growth
in 2019 from 0.2% to 0.1% and a deficit in 2020 above 3%. The 10Y spread to Germany widened.
We have broken through a key daily sup/res level.
Momentum is negative.
Consider adding shorts on a pullback.
The trend is strongly bullish on italyThe trend is strongly bullish for the Italian index. This from the first days of January to this days. After the collapse of May (from the highs) it has reached the support area setted at around 18000 points. The price in these 4 months has recovered most of the descent, returning below the key static resistance in area around 22300 points and identified by 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. This level, if broken on the upside, will pave the way for the MIB40. It will once again reach the highs reached a year ago. With this expansive monetary policy on the side of the ECB, which will continue to keep rates at historic lows (almost certainly returning to inject money in the Eurozone from September) the markets will be reassured and investors will hold and increase positions on European equities. The market expects an important reversal of the main world indices after the rally of the last sessions. In the specific case of the Italian index, on reaching the price of 22300 points it is very likely that could retraces. At least up to the support identified by the EMA20 daily and passing through around 21500 points. The maximum extension that could touch the key support placed at 20900 points.For a few sessions this uptrend should not stop. On reaching 22300 points, we will open a short position and keep it in the portfolio for a very short/short period.
Trading Plan February 2019This is my trading plan for February 2019.
Will be working this plan for the rest of the year, and review December 31 2019.
This is based on:
- 2 years of crypto trading
- realisation that I suck at daytrading
- suspicion I could be good at macro swing trading
- recent education on Babypips and other trusted sources
The focus of the year is on:
- learning
- refining a system that plays to my strengths
- understanding risk management and R:R
- becoming effective at pulling the trigger on entries/exits
Profit is really not a concern for this year. Profit will come when I'm competent as a trader and can consistently show a meaningful, non-negligible winrate, net of fees.
Italy Has A ProblemLast week saw the break of a bear flag. We are now resting on downtrend support. The chart looks heavy at this point.
Italian banks have major exposure to Turkey. Also, Italy threatens to drag the EU under. The Italians are not as docile as the Greeks - they do not care for whatever rules Brussels attempts to impose on them.
Thus, my next target for capital flight is Italy. My first target is the 2016 lows. Should a bounce materialize, I will be confident in shorting it. For now, I'm short from within the flag.
