NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next.
📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation?
One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages:
🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA)
These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum.
The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure.
Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand.
🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA)
The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends.
In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it.
This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure.
🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA)
The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends.
Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market.
The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control.
➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal.
Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure
We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower.
Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge.
🔥 What’s Next?
If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally.
If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets.
Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery.
Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
