NAS100 possibility of price rising/Divergence with US30On the higher timeframe, NAS100 maintains a bullish momentum. In recent days, the index has experienced a decline from the 22,226 high to 19,113. Notably, it has been trading within a rising channel and is currently positioned near the channel's support area. On lower timeframes, a divergence with the Dow Jones Index (US30) has been observed, suggesting a potential reversal. If a reversal occurs, an upward move toward 20,625 is anticipated, with a potential extension to 21,360.
US100 trade ideas
A high-probability prediction of where the markets might go From what I see, I think the markets could reverse direction and make a new BoS on the 4 timeframe. We filled the FVG, took liquidity in the 4h structure and now we have not been able to make a new swing point, which resulted in ChoCh. Also the volume is high, this means a lot of liquidity was taken and reversal is happening (accumulation).
Macro data tells us that inflation has fallen, which could result in a rate cut. Uneployment also rose, which is another good indicator that supports my idea. PPI is negative this means producers are not raising prices. Overall everything is pretty pozitive, and I don't think Trump will affect this either.
People are getting used to it and the economy is adapting.
Whats you opinion on my analysis and todays market conditions?
Tell me your idea, i am opened to everything as always :)
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Important Breakout I spotted a great example of a bullish reversal on 📈US100.
The index formed a double bottom pattern on a 4-hour chart and broke and closed above a resistance line of a descending channel.
There is a positive response on retesting the key support level based on a broken neckline.
It is expected that the index will continue to rise towards the 20,000 / 20180 levels.
US100 Technical Analysis by TradingDONIf the NQ CAPITALCOM:US100 closes a 1-hour candle below the Fibonacci trend line and shows strong bearish momentum, I will set my target at 19,580. Conversely, if the NQ closes a 1-hour candle above the trend line with a strong bullish candle, I will identify 19,930 as the resistance level.
RISK ON or RISK OFF?? Correlations between JPY and the IndicesAs a trader it is imperative that you understand the correlation between the indices and 'flight to safety' currencies and how this determines whether you are in a risk on or risk off environment and how quickly that can change. You can use this information to help you make informed trading decisions in the market
NASDAQ and Elliott Wave.A 5 Wave move to the upside started around mid October 2022. Wave 2 was a Zigzag and 4 should be a Flat as per the rules. Indeed Wave 4 is a Flat and we are currently on Wave B of the Flat marked in Black. As we know, Wave B of a Flat MUST have 3 Waves(Two impulse and one corrective) marked as A,B,C(all in Green) and we are on the last Wave(C) of Wave B. A retest on the Fib level 161.8% would trigger a Wave C(Black) which would be Wave 4. All analysis is backed by Math and Logic.
Bullish bounce?USTEC has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 19,631.95
1st Support: 19,126.61
1st Resistance: 20,332.42
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US100 dropping? here's why I think soAs we can see the previous trend was an uptrend, we got a Change of Trend before the market dropped showing strong selling pressure and now the price looks like it's Retracing(Retest) before it continues it's movement down
what are your opinions on NAS100?🙃comment below
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks Structure – Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – The Way of the Silent Blade
⭐️ We do not predict—we calculate.
We do not react—we execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
🩸 market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
🩸 Bullish Structure Shatters -
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19750
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🩸 Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19540 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🔻 This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accident—it is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
NAS100 Bullish Trading IdeaMarket Structure & Key Levels
Bullish Market Structure: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows.
4-Hour Order Block (OB): The price recently reacted from a 4-hour order block, confirming bullish intent.
Unmitigated Wick: There’s an unmitigated wick above 20,160, acting as a liquidity target.
Liquidity Pool Below: A possible retracement to sweep liquidity before the next bullish push.
Trade Setup (ICT)
Entry Zone: Look for a retracement to the 19,800 - 19,820 region, which aligns with an order block and potential fair value gap (FVG).
Stop-Loss: Below 19,700 (under the liquidity sweep level).
First Target (TP1): 19,995 (previous high and potential resistance).
Final Target (TP2): 20,160+ (liquidity grab from the unmitigated wick).
Confirmation Factors
Displacement & FVG: Look for an aggressive bullish push from discounted price levels.
London & New York Session Influence: NY session open may trigger liquidity grab before the bullish move.
Trading View Idea: Nasdaq 100 SPOT (Technical & Fundamental OutlTechnical Analysis:
Key Levels: Immediate support at 19,664.50 (current price), with critical demand zones near 19,200–19,600. A break below could target 18,268.75 (next major support). Resistance levels begin at 20,400–20,800.
Price Action : Consolidation between SELL (19,664.25) and BUY (19,665.05) zones suggests indecision. Watch for a breakout; holding above demand zones may signal bullish reversal potential.
Fundamental Drivers:
USD Influence: Monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY). A stronger dollar could pressure Nasdaq 100, given its tech-heavy export exposure.
Macro Factors: Fed policy shifts, inflation data, and tech sector earnings will drive sentiment.
Trade Idea:
Bullish Scenario: Hold above 19,664.50 with SL at 19,200, targeting 20,400.
Bearish Trigger: Close below 19,200 opens downside toward 18,268.75.
Call to Action:
👉 Follow for alerts on breakout/breakdown scenarios.
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Risk Note: Tight stops advised amid volatility. Align entries with DXY trends and economic catalysts.
Nasdaq 100 key levels to watch as index tries to extend recoveryMarkets have been grappling to establish a definitive bottom in recent sessions, before finally the bulls showed up on Friday to stage a strong rebound from oversold levels. Could the Nasdaq 100 now be poised for a more substantial recovery?
After Friday’s recovery, the big question now is whether we are witnessing the early stages of another rally or just a pause before deeper losses.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 found some footing in the 19,115-19,240 zone, which coincides with a prior support/resistance region and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally. With the daily RSI firmly entrenched in oversold territory, the index was able to find dip buyers yet again.
The key technical factor to watch today is to see whether the index will show follow-through after Friday’s sharp recovery. A positive close would further erode the bears’ control, while a negative close would suggest there is more selling to come.
A few nearby resistance barriers are in focus now. The first of these hurdles is at 19,735—the low from Friday that was breached in Monday’s sharp sell-off. This level also marks the underside of a broken trendline stretching back to January 2023. A decisive break above this area could open the door to additional upside, targeting psychological resistance at 20,000, followed by the 200-day moving average near 20,340. Should dip buyers regain control, these levels could soon come into focus.
On the flip side, if renewed selling pressure emerges, downside targets include 18,800 and potentially the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 18,310.
Taking everything into account, my Nasdaq 100 forecast has shifted. Where I previously leaned towards further correction—now largely realised—I am now inclined to anticipate a recovery.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets.
However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached.
Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices .
The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior.
This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter.
Let's look more into it.
Historical Patterns and the Paradox
The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market.
In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights.
The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle.
Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started.
The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic
What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out.
By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down.
....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all!
And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025.
Leveling Off and the Market Peak
It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau.
Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values.
Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began.
We have an exact matching of these conditions now.
The Bear Market and Rate Easing
Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess.
All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply.
A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then).
Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip.
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Realistic Examples of the Paradox
=================================
Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s):
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices.
Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989.
Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase.
Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000):
Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith.
Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations.
Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted.
U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s):
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth.
Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs.
Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.