US30 Switching to the 4-Hour, it is in Bearish (directional) Market Bias. The bearish drop had broken through the Bullish Trendline (in green dotted line), flipping the market bias from bullish to bearish.
A continued, bearish descent may be halted by the S&R Zone (that starts at 44,504). We'll see if there is a reversal to the upside from the Zone to retest the trendline, then back down again OR the bears break through the S&R Zone and head towards the Swing Low of 44,324 to breach.
US30 *For Swing Traders: On the Daily, an Inside Day pattern formed along the S&R Zone. That means a market pause with no clear direction yet until there's a true (and not a false) breakout from either the pattern's high at 44,866 or low at 44,438 (shown as two orange lines). Currently, the market is Overbought.
Due to price action being Overbought, a retrace can be either shallow of down to it's mean (average) through Mean Reversion, currently priced at 43,378.
Also, the Doji within the bullish rally (highlighted in blue) reveals that there's indecision and exhaustion, so a reversal is coming.
Alternative Scenario: If there's a breakout at the Inside Day's high, then the rally can continue to breach the Swing Highs of 45,050 and 45,065 for more profitable moves to the upside.
As we look ahead, several important economic events could impact the US30 market. Key USD news to watch includes:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Scheduled for July 7, 2025, this report will provide insights into the U.S. job market and could significantly influence the USD's strength. A strong NFP report typically supports the USD, potentially leading to downward pressure on the US30. ๐
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Set for July 12, 2025, this inflation report will be crucial for understanding consumer spending trends. Higher inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, impacting the USD and subsequently the US30 index. ๐
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Scheduled for July 13, 2025, the release of these minutes will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which can affect market sentiment and the USD's value.
These upcoming events are vital for traders to consider, as they can lead to increased volatility and potential trading opportunities in the US30 market.
Conclusion ๐
In summary, the US30 is currently positioned within a bullish trend, supported by key indicators such as Fibonacci levels, EMAs, and MACD. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals indicated by RSI divergence and monitor critical support and resistance levels. With upcoming USD news events on the horizon, maintaining awareness of fundamental factors will be essential for making informed trading decisions. By integrating both technical and fundamental analyses, traders can enhance their strategies and navigate the US30 market effectively.
As of the latest market data, the US30 is trading at 44,566 USD. This analysis focuses on the daily and 4-hour time frames, utilizing various technical indicators to provide a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions. Key indicators such as Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), RSI divergence, support and resistance levels, order blocks, and MACD will be examined to offer insights into potential price movements.
Current Market Analysis ๐
Support and Resistance Levels
Daily Time Frame:
Support Levels:
43,500: A significant support level where buying interest has been observed. 43,000: A psychological level that traders often watch for potential reversals.
Resistance Levels:
44,000: This level has acted as a resistance point, where sellers have previously entered the market. 45,000: A higher resistance level that may attract selling pressure.
4-Hour Time Frame:
Support Levels:
44,200: A minor support level that has held in recent trading sessions. 44,000: A key level where buying interest may emerge.
Resistance Levels:
44,800: A notable resistance level where price action has reversed in the past. 45,200: A higher resistance level that traders should monitor.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels ๐
Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, the key levels from the recent swing high of 43,116 to the swing low of 41,737 provide critical insights:
These levels can act as potential reversal points, with the 61.8% retracement being particularly significant for traders looking for entries on pullbacks.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) ๐
Daily Time Frame:
EMA 50: 43,750 EMA 100: 43,900 EMA 200: 44,100 EMA 400: 44,300
The EMA levels indicate that the price is currently trading above the shorter-term EMAs (50 and 100), suggesting a bullish trend in the short to medium term.
4-Hour Time Frame:
EMA 50: 44,400 EMA 100: 44,500 EMA 200: 44,600 EMA 400: 44,700
On the 4-hour chart, the price is also above the 50 EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. However, the proximity of the price to the EMA levels suggests that traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks.
RSI Divergence ๐
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing signs of divergence. While the price has reached new highs, the RSI has not confirmed this movement, indicating a potential weakening of momentum. This divergence suggests that traders should be vigilant for possible reversals or corrections, especially near the identified resistance levels.
Order Blocks ๐ฆ
Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, creating potential support or resistance zones. In the current market, the most notable order block is located near 44,200, where buying interest has been strong. Traders should monitor this area for potential reversals or continuations.
MACD Analysis ๐
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently in a bullish phase, with the MACD line above the signal line. This alignment suggests that the bullish momentum may continue in the short term. However, traders should watch for any signs of convergence that could indicate a weakening trend.
US30 Switching to the 4-Hour, it is in Bearish (directional) Market Bias. The bearish drop had broken through the Bullish Trendline (in green dotted line), flipping the market bias from bullish to bearish.
