ATMP trade ideas
VIX is Getting Frothy Here3 standard deviations for this ratio spells reversals, in most cases. Look for a short term Squeeze in SPY, and some Vol Crush
VXX - Sell the Spike - Be Brave!!!Bear Call Credit Spread
Selling Vol, Short.
D RSI is very Overbought at 90+
Due to news / trade war / other Volatility is spiking.
Usually Short term run for cover, before things calm down.
Be Brave!
32/30 Bear Call with 29 Put for Directional Bias lower.
Market goes down = $$$A way to take advantage of volatility on this market could be this short-term futures based on the $VIX.
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VXX downtrend continuation Looks like VXX is continuing its downtrend as it has run into multiple resistance points and is forming a bear flag. With futures up and a positive reaction to Apple earnings vxx has a poor chance to break out with stoch already overextended and bearish divergence on RSI.
OPENING: VXX SEPT 20TH 20/23 LONG CALL VERTICAL... for a 1.35/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $165/contract
Max Loss: $135/contract
Break Even: 21.35
Delta/Theta: 21.16/.55
Notes: I don't take long vol product positions very often, particularly those subject to contango erosion and/or beta slippage, but with the market at ATH's and the VIX at lows, taking a small shot here with better than risk one to make one metrics ... . It'll be a money, take, run at 25% max or greater.
Inverse head and shoulder - VXXInverse head and shoulder pattern on VXX.
if we measure from head to neckline and project that forward we get a 41.5 price target.
Volatility preparing for next launch$VXX, $VIX, $TVIX, etc all consolidating above 20/50 dma + 55ema. Very similar pattern to prior 200dma test and breakout patterns. Short if 200dma fails. If we breakout, sell before the 200dma backtest, and enter once it finds support there.
VXX 21-Jun-19 Put Credit SpreadVXX 21-Jun-19
30-Day IV: 78.1 -0.8
IV Pct Rank: 81% Elevated
Put Credit Spread
Long 1 Put: 27 Strike @ $1.13
Short 1 Put: 28 Strike @ $1.50
Credit: $0.37
Option Volume Last 30 Days
Puts: 73% | Calls: 27%
We could be trading in a range for the next 15 daysGood day folks,
Based on volatility, the market could trade within a range for the next 15 days. So VXX is on channel support and into an ascending triangle (bullish). Resistance at 40. If the chart is good, this could provide a few long and short opportunities.
Thank you,
VXX - Butterfly Pattern broke. Now looking for Bat PatternUh OH! The butterfly pattern was broke this morning. (note the red X )
Is the long term bullish VXX trade dead? Nah!,
I still think that we will see the bullish move up in VXX. The harmonic patterns simply "evolve". The next high probability turn expected is the completion of the Bat Pattern at the Pesky Gap! shown and the green Buy Zone along the (pink) dashed line.
On this deep retracement, we need to be careful and watch the low pointed out in the red and yellow note. That point voids these patterns.
I am still bullish on VXX and Bearish on SPY
VXX -Target in the green Buy zone reached!Updated chart since last one was sent out. Looks like the Blue butterfly is completed and the 61.8% (pink) Bat pattern may begin to pivot here soon. This could be the wave 2.
Lets see if the VXX begins to hold in this retracement green zone as shown.
If the VXX begins to hold and then turn up, we should see the SPY begin to sell off soon, beginning wave 3
I am long VXX and short SPY
VXX - SPY Still on Track!Looking at the VXX chart here, it lines up well with the previously posted charts about the Jan 18 turn date. The Spy has dropped as the VXX broke up out of the the long down trending channel since Dec 24. The recent turn up in VXX as shown here is a great "contrary" indicator to manage the SPY trades.
The recent pullback action in VXX may complete a Butterfly Pattern (as shown here in blue). This target also lines up well with a 61.8% retracement target in the larger Bat Pattern (shown in pink).
Although this chart is zoomed in as we look down for the next turning point marking wave 2, we can expect the SPY to move in the opposite direction and try one more time at the recent highs set back on Jan 18, but it will probably fail and then begin the long grinding 3rd wave down.
The VXX chart shown here, will of course begin it's 3rd wave up and meet initial resistance at the pink dashed line. Then expect a period of consolidation as the pattern begins to pack and build some energy. After that we can expect The Bat Pattern target to be reached way back up near the 50.20 zone!
This forecast is voided if the VXX drops lower than the low set on Jan 18. Until then I'm long on VXX :)
Is the VXX trying to tell us something?I feel that VXX is making a run up within the next 3 months, Something is happening in the financial system and the market, economy and investors might not like it.
The VXXThe VXX is a stock created to track volatility in the stock market. Basically, the stock acts as a form of insurance. Its there for when the stock market crashes. The stock goes up when the overall broader stock market falls. In times of uncertainty or during an economic decline the volatility (VXX) will rise while investors sell stocks. Currently we are seeing uncertainty (government shutdown, China trade war and rising interest rates) we do not have economic decline. I created a trend line on the VXX once the Federal Reserve had its meeting October earlier of last year. Since then, the pattern seems to hold on that particular trend line. Today was the third time price had reached the trend line in a couple of weeks and I thought it would be a good idea to pay attention. It would be a fair assumption that if the White House doesn't open the government or China trade deal cannot be reached the VXX index will move up like it did twice in the last 3-4 months. It would make sense to hold shares of VXX until either the government reopens or there is a resolution on the China trade deal.
Market analysis We go higherI believe that new highs is on the horizon. In the video I describe a couple of events that lead me to believe the rally is not over.
Is a reversal coming?In the video I explain what I saw on the VIX in early hours as well as events in the news that could keep the present rally continuing. Hope you like the video.
