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ATMP trade ideas

TRADE IDEA: VXX FEB 9TH 27/30 LONG PUT VERTICALAnother mechanical short volatility trade put on in the weeklies in VXX (while I wait for UVXY to do "the splits"). The February 9th weekly should open tomorrow and with VXX trading slightly below the 28 handle, I'm going to look at filling some 28/31's in that expiry for a 2.25/contract debit. Given the fact that the February 16th 28/31's are trading around that mark, I think my chances for a fill at 2.25 are decent ... . If I can't get filled for less than 2.30 for that setup, I may cave in and go with the 27.50/30.5's ... .
CBOE:VXXShort
by NaughtyPines
2
OPENING: VXX FEB 16TH 28/31 LONG PUT VERTICAL... for a 2.28/contract debit. Frankly, was somewhat surprised that this appeared to have a 2.27 mid at open, since 28 is right at the money, and the market doesn't usually accommodate that kind of fill unless the short put is deeper ... . I was going to wait for the February 9th's to open, but I have a "spot" within the nooks and crannies of my February 16th 27/29 2x2 long put vertical to squeeze this in here and if someone's going to fill me for 2.30 or less on a three-wide, well, who am I to question ... .
CBOE:VXXShort
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: VXX JAN 26TH 30/33 LONG PUT VERTICAL... for a 2.22/contract debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $78/contract Max Loss: $222/contract Break Even: 30.78 Notes: With UVXY sliding below 12, it's losing a bit of granularity here due to its size, so I'm switching over to VXX for a bit until UVXY reverse splits (which usually occurs around $8-$9) (i.e., it's a bigger move for UVXY to move a half strike than for VXX to move a half strike). I'll continue to put these plays on weekly in the expiry closest to 45 days wherever price lies, but also take advantage of VXST/VIX >1.00 pops with additional spreads as opportunities present themselves. As with all spreads, I generally will pull them off at 50% max profit ... .
CBOE:VXXShort
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: VXX FEB 19TH 27/29 LONG PUT VERTICALSince there's no February 2nd weekly available for me to use, I'm going out to the monthly to put on my weekly short volatility product play. Here, I'm going narrower with the spread, but doubling the number of contracts to show how to scale trade size with both width of the spread and the number of contracts. As compared to the 3-wides, which I normally get filled for around 2.25/contract and that have a max profit potential of .75/contract (33% ROC), I'm shooting for a 1.34/contract fill for the two-wides and a .66/contract max profit potential (49.25% ROC). Since I'm using two contracts instead of one, max loss is 2.68 per 2x2 as compared to the 2.25 for the 1x3, but max profit is 1.32 versus .75.
CBOE:VXXShort
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: VXX OCT 20TH 52/54 SHORT CALL VERT... for a .50 credit. Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $50/contract Max Loss: $150/contract Break Even: 52.50 Notes: Setting this up at the 50 delta strike. The set up isn't that "sexy" in terms of premium collected versus max loss, but going small on this minor VIX pop. Would prefer going 50 delta short call vert in this instrument on corresponding /VX front month at 16 or greater, but ain't getting any younger ... .
CBOE:VXXShort
by NaughtyPines
3
VIX has the chances of reversalWe've seen S&P500 futures chart climbing to the new all time highs since November 2016 (Trump rally). Risk appetite has become so strong that market had lost "fear" entirely, which resulted in decreased volaility. Such a smooth rally will end sonner or later, and volatility of S&P500 has to grow. I'm not saying that stocks will drop straight to hell, price action will become choppier and less smooth. It will shift volatility higher (VIX). We can't trade VIX directly, but there are some ETFs which allow to do that, for example Ipath VXX.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Quantili
2
VXX - Sniper's Scope Trained on the Back of your HeadWhat does it feel like to be a target in the crosshairs of a professional? Absolutely nothing. When the shot is made, you'll never see it coming. Likewise, this slow VXX descent into nothingness is unprecedented. The Confederacy of Dunces, constantly driving the market to new heights, have stood unchastened for far too long without a remembrance of the last top. I don't claim to know all or perhaps it's just my ignorance on how this product is constructed, but what I do know is that walking into urban battlefields without body armor is a fool's errand. If you haven't already done so, it's time to hedge. My advice? Buy body armor. The VXX September delta 80 Calls can be picked up for about $2.15. Don't think something could happen to the market 85 days from now? Good for you. As for me, if my portfolio takes an unexpected shot, I can guarantee it won't be fatal. I look forward to seeing the survivors back on the field to trade another day.
CBOE:VXXLong
by d34dc4t
vxx patternOk, so, the vix is an index, indicator of trade sentiment, not a physical thing. Then, should we consider using the same indicators and judge patterns the same as a stock? Good question. My answer is, sort of. It is like using a particular word, for lack of a better one. RSI is old, it is wise, it is consistent, it can be trusted, sort of. Some say it lags, but there is a truth in it, now. When price is so out of sorts with strength. And divergences abound, and precede price moves or not. For price to really correct, we need SUSTAINED VOLATILITY. Looking, watching for a true double bottom. We almost had one, see chart, but the artificial price inflators took hold yet again, to prop up and pump. Now this time, note the bottom RSI strength, lengthy bullish divergence. This could be the real thing. It could be an unknown news thing, which I have no idea, take your pick, or it could be Friday bank earnings, which since Yellen dovish comments, their outlooks may be sour. Or it just could be that individual investors appear to be rushing money in, finally trusting the market again, and the pros take their money and run. Or the planets may have aligned, again, take your pick, but this correction is so, so overdue, and these pumps, caused mainly by shorters covering, the cycle will finally stop, just when they lessen their percentage of shorts. Like I said, take your pick, while the real pros, with their algos programmed for greed, play everyone else like a fiddle.
CBOE:VXXLong
by claydoctor