TRADE IDEA: VXX JUNE 17TH 17/27/37 LONG CALL BUTTERFLYWith low volatility having drained premium not only out of the broader market, but individual underlyings as well, I continue to look at VIX and VXX derivatives to go "long volatility" in lieu of opting for low vol strategies like debit spreads, calendars, and diagonals.
In this particular case, I'm opting to use a long call butterfly given its high risk/return ratio, its relative cheapness to put on, as well as the large profit zone the setup generates.
Here are the metrics for the setup:
Probability of Profit: 54%
Max Profit: $910/contract
Max Risk/Buying Power Effect: $90/contract
Notes: There are a couple of different ways to manage this intratrade, one of which merely involves taking the whole setup off in profit. The alternative way is to strip off the long call vertical portion of the setup (the 17/27 wing) first as price moves up, after which you would look to exit the short call vertical wing (27/37) as VXX mean reverts (as it is want to do).
ATMP trade ideas
ROLLING VXX SHORT CALLSI currently have several VXX short call diagonals on, all of which have the September monthly as the back month, and with the short calls at the 16, 17, 18 and 21 strikes.
Today, with the 21, 18, and 17 short calls having lost a good deal of their value, I rolled them out to lock in profit as well as collect additional credit while I wait for a pop of some kind to peel them off ... .
BOUGHT VXX SEPT 16TH 11/MAY 20TH 16 SHORT CALL DIAGONALPutting on another VXX long setup, given the fact that we don't have many premium selling opportunities here (volatility low across the board, both in the broad markets and individual underlyings).
Filled for a $400/contract debit ... . I'll look to take these VXX long setups off at 25% profit ... .
BOUGHT VXX SEPT 16TH 12/MAY 13TH 17 SHORT CALL DIAGONALAdding to my "suite" of long VIX/VIX derivative setups, since there isn't much premium to sell in this market right now until we get into the "fat" of meaty earnings next week (NFLX, etc.).
Filled for a $418/contract debit. I'll look to take these off at 25% max profit ... .
BOUGHT VXX SEPT 16TH 13/MAY 13TH 18 SHORT CALL DIAGONALLayering on another long volatility setup here on this dip below 17.50 in VXX. (See Post below as to how to work this "poor man's covered call").
Unfortunately, there are virtually no metrics to provide with a diagonal, such as probability of profit, since it will vary depending on how much credit you collect during the life of the setup, when and how much VXX pops during its "lifetime", and when you chose to take your money and run ... . The one metric that can be provided is the fact that this setup cost $413/contract to put on, which is the extent of your loss if you allow your long call to expire worthless in September (in which case VXX would have to be below 13 at expiration). Naturally, I intend to bail long before that ... .
COVERING VXX SEPT 16TH 13/MAY 6TH 17.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONALI put this on on April 1st, thinking it might be a while before I could take it off, but covered it today on this pop, freeing up the buying power for another go should be strike $17 again. I put it on for $373/contract, and took it off today for a $419 credit, yielding a $42.93/contract profit in six days.
Naturally, this isn't hugely earth shattering profit-wise, it's always best to take off a VXX setup of this type as soon as possible. The contango helps your short call in the long run, but also eats away at the value of your long over time ... .
VIX - Attention Options TradersIf you trade options like me, then you will take a very close look at the VIX.
So here we are, at the Lower Medianline Paralle of the black downsloping Fork.
What does this mean?
It means, that the VIX has pulled back to equlibrium - to a energy zone of equal, where all is possible again.
Most of the time we can see price turns at the L-MLH in the opposite direction, since the energy (price) is
now at a stage of the opposite extreme, and/or at the center of the upcomming other extreme...
...can follow? ;-)
No problem if you can't. All what it means is, that we Option Sellers are probably looking for strategies, where
we more then not use strategies to buy, instead of selling options. For example some RiskReversals etc.
Let's see how this unfolds in the upcomming days and weeks.
P!
ROLLING: VXX MAY 6TH 21 SHORT CALL TO MAY 20TH 21 SHORT CALLI'm rolling the May 6th 21 short call of this setup to the May 20th 21 short call for an additional $23 credit, as the May 6th had lost a good deal of its value ... .
The long-dated option leg of the setup cost a $752 debit when I put it on, and I've collected a net of $229 in credits so far -- about 30% the value of the long option.
Naturally, as price moves toward the long option, its value decreases, so the entire setup as of right now is "in the red" ... .
VXX - 30mRed path remains my primary expectation. This is no time to enter new shorts here. Great time to take profits on existing VXX shorts, (or XIV longs). Better to wait for 3-wave up into the resistance region of minute wave iv on new positions.
Long VXX is dangerous imo given VIX contango. Aggressive longs need to actively manage stops imo.
VXX - 1hrI've adjusted the degree of recent waves iii and iv. Near-term targets don't change, but longer-term path includes one more bounce and drop later into the Spring. Actual targets for waves (iv) and (v) will be dependent on resolution of wave (iii). I'll be looking for brief bounces to enter short, and will hold for lower targets as long as the pattern holds. Breaking above 19.26 would be a warning to shorts, and 20.24 would be an indication this count is clearly not playing out as shown.
BUYING TO CLOSE VXX MAY 20TH 20 SHORT CALLI didn't like how far out in time I rolled my short call, so I closed it out, opting to sell something closer in time. So I closed out the VXX May 20th short call and sold the May 6th 21 short call instead for a credit of .92 ($92).
I'll attempt to be a touch more patient with the roll this time and wait until a few days prior to expiration or until there is little or no extrinsic value left in it.
I originally received a 1.59 credit for the April 15th 21 short call and .77 for the roll to the May 20th 20 short, for a total of 2.36 in credits ($236). I closed out the May 20th 20 short call today for a 1.49 debit, so I realized a profit of 2.36 - 1.49 = .89 ($89)/contract in profit.
That being said, what I'm looking to do here is to roll the short call over time, collect credit for doing so, and get to a point where the sum of the credits collected + the current value of the long-dated call exceeds what I paid to put on the setup in the first place. Naturally, price's caving here helps out the value of the short call (it decreases, which is what you want), but it also decreases the value of the long call. As with an ordinary covered call where you take a position by buying shares of stock and sell calls against to reduce cost basis in those shares, you generally want price to either remain stable or pop.
I'm naturally looking for volatility to pop between now and the expiration of the September long to bail on the set up as a unit ... .
VXX - 1hrVXX is starting to look impulsive off the recent highs. Wave a of (iv) may well have been all of (iv). A corrective bounce to 19.20/.59 region could be shorted with a stop over 20.25. This would also be a good region to drop longs if you're still holding. I'm not holding long for higher targets at this point...
Will update with targets for wave (v) later, but definitely don't be holding short below 18.40. An expanded flat, while possible, is not a highly probable trade. Certainly not worth risking longs in the face of a potential melt-down in (v) while fighting contango imo.