Looking at VXX in Logarithmic I Think we Found Our BottomAMEX:VXX
As stated in the title, I think we found our bottom on VXX. Buckle up!
Not financial advice; my opinion only
ATMP trade ideas
FED carnie taper circus tomorrow!rolled into a couple June 25th at the money calls right before the bell. Dumping this paper into the Q&A and rolling out +1 more week if there's a really sour reaction to even a whiff of removing the punch bowl. Hopefully some initial whipsaw action, rolling into puts next week when suits come back and jawbone TINA 🤙
CRITICAL ALERT!This trendline for the VXX has been holding the VXX in a downtrend from 2010-2020 (look at all the trendline tests from prior to 2020) until we broke it and had a big crash in Feb-March 2020. Now we are back-testing it and I am expecting a reaction for the VXX. VXX should go up and SPX down in the next 1-2 months. Look at my previous post on TVIX back in February that talked about breaking the multi-year trendline.
calls on the VXX Betting on a spike in the vix tomorrow after the CPI number comes in hot. Too many signs of inflation to ignore, there's no way the CPI comes in softly. I think the markets will have a slight reaction which should spike the "fear index" for a brief period of time, long enough to sell the calls in-the-money
Strategy to profit from this possibility:
VXX expiration June 11th $33 strike calls (ITM)
VXX expiration June 11th $34 strike calls (OTM)
Vix spikes are usually short-lived and this is playing off a specific catalyst, specifically, the CPI being reported at 8:30 am June 10th.
High volume retest VXXVXX has had a couple recent high volume buying climax type days. Do we see a quick retest?
Fibs in play. Indicators looking bullish for VXX and the MA looks ready to cross. Let's see how it plays out.
Trades active.
Not financial advice.
Spike Trade - Waiting for the signal Waiting for the signal to spike trade.
There's no FOMO with roll premium, but once a signal is generated a high probability volatility trade to the long side is identified.
No FOMO - just discipline here.
VXX We are going Parabolic next monthAMEX:VXX I'm not a mathematician or financial advisor but in an attempt to chart the pattern, this is what I see playing out by the beginning of July possibly.
Be safe everyone
no problemasVXX calibrated is trading under pre-pandemic levels. There's at least ~50% upside to just regain normal vol levels dating back to 2019, business as usual walls of worry.
Fear is on sale,. June will likely be jawboned into a melt up, but July & August inflation talks return...July 16 31 calls, June 18 31 puts 🤙🏽
Is this how a mean reversion would look?If we had another mini-crash into the summer, followed by recovery into the fall, then 2008 style mean reversion of risk and leverage, would the ongoing backwardation make VXX look like this, crazy as it seems?
VXX Calls - 14 May ExpiryThis is the second part of my May trade and I attempt to break up my holdings.
VXX is based on the volatility index and is an inverse reflection of the S&P500. Currently, the market is pretty bullish and I expect it to continue at least for the next month. My strategy is to not go for the high-risk, high-reward trades. But steady high probably trades that I can compound on.
My 20k loss in Feb, showed me that for my strategy, its better to cut my losses fast and small if I get a hint that things are not panning out. As a small loss is easier and faster to gain back especially since I structure my trades monthly. A huge loss just means more months required to paying back...
My strike is also pretty far away and should be well padded.
Sold 130 Calls @ 0.25 Strike 17
BP Block: 37K
Max Gain: Est $3,250
% Distance to Strike: 74%
ATR is also low which means volatility is pretty passive
VXX Sold Calls - 11 June & 18 June ExpiryVXX is based on the volatility index and is an inverse reflection of the S&P500 . Currently, the market has returned to it's bullish move especially after the bearish spike from inflation.
The US economy also seems to be strengthening. My big worry is if the IN variant hits the US and if it will have an impact on the market.
There are also good S/R lines to resist potential upside movement
Sold 50 Calls @ 1.4 Strike 65 - Expiry 11 June
Sold 50 Calls @ 1.25 Strike 67 - Expiry 18 June
BP Block: 50K
Max Gain: Est $5285.76
% Distance to Strike 65: 65%
% Distance to Strike 67: 70%
Bump in the Night - VXX Similar looking chart pattern in VXX just prior to big spike. Divergence indicator recently went bullish.
Not financial advice.
By Request - EW for VXX (Inverted Scale)VXX is an interesting chart for EW analysis.
Sometimes I will invert the VXX chart to analyze wave counts from that perspective.
My count has VXX ending a significant 5 WAVE down from the Spring 2020 high - soon and potentially as soon as next week! Probably an early call as WAVE fives can extend out and out and out …sometimes. And I will note that (inverted) VXX broke through the 1.618 Fib last Friday with conviction after several previous tries.
I'm currently long a few June 18 NS calls.
Not financial advice.
VIX UP!VIX - Looks like a bottom has formed... Compared to last run up in late January 2021.
Big Wave E UP on deck per my count.
Not financial advice.
Vol lower...still contangoStill a contango market.
Growth up...vol down = long SPY etc.
You really need a news event to kick off a reversal spike otherwise roll premium is a killer.
LONGThe VXX is at all time low we expect a strong rise today or next week very nice position to buy.
RSI on all timeframes strongly oversold.
VXX/VIX upside theoryClean chart.
No lines, no mess here, just a simple concept.
If a VXX/VIX at this low, with an up-trending volume doesn't make you uneasy.. I don't know what to tell ya..
Market optimism is a wonderful thing and personally I love the days more when I have a bullish attitude (because who wouldn't want to support the economic success of everyone?), but I also acknowledge that some people (*cough* market makers *cough*) make the largest profit my fleecing the doe-eyed.
"to the moon" "4k spx at least!" and this dangerously low VXX/VIX, as well as (way too easy) accessibility to options as a trading instrument for many unqualified retail traders. We have people overleveraging with little-to-no market education. I just see this equation leading to some people's first time experience with a rug pull.
Whether you use this as a long strategy, a hedge, or just as another indicator towards market sentiment - just keep your eye on it.
Roll premium takes its toll!Backwardation times the spikes..
Contango is a killer!
No "Hodling" here!
Using VXX as VIX alternative with good P/L
Yesterday I've played an alternative VIX instrument.
I've tired to searching good ROI or P/L rates at VIX $20 VIX support, so I've searched some alternative, but VIX related instrument.
Lets see what can give us this BARCLAYS BANK VIX Short ETN (=VXX)
(1) Yearly support + incoming buy volume
The lowerst value of the previous year was $13.
In the past month significant buy volume arrieved.
Combined this two reason could lead into sidewalking or bounceback from this level.
VXX is a Trust, so we see volume displayed (unlinke in the case of the VIX)
(2) VIX play ROI vs VXX ROI
You could see VXX like an ETN alternatative of the VIX.
Same dates for big edges, and melting down between the big edges.
Compared this two instument's ROI: the conclusion is obvious.
VXX ROI at support $13 for April with vertical spread: 37/63 = 58%
VIX ROI at support $20 for April with vertical spread: 20/80 = 25%
CONCLUSION
I'm buying a few call spreads for April, because the IVR not so high.
I think this is a very good P/L rate with a very high probability of profit!
Target: ............. 52% Max profit: ...... $111 Max loss: ......... $189 IVR: ................... 20 POP: .................. 65% Expiry: .............. 44days
Strategy: long call vertical spread (average IVR)
Sell 3 VXX April 16' $13 call Buy 3 VXX April 16' $12 call
Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $13.
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 65% of max.profit in this case.
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
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OPENING: VXX MARCH 19TH 13/16 LONG CALL VERTICAL... for a 1.50 debit/contract.
Notes: With VIX at lows, opening a small risk one to make one bullish assumption trade in VXX with a 14.50 break even.
I generally don't like to take bullish assumption shots in volatility products, particularly ones like VXX and UVXY that experience contango erosion over time, implying that you're rowing against the tide with any bullish assumption directional shot. Looking to get .75 out of this if the opportunity presents itself.
