bull run is coming Great hedge for the crazy bull stock market. I smell a market reset soon... very soon.
ATMP trade ideas
Attention, attention! VXX and VIX is talkingAttention, attention!
This is your volatility talking!
We request you to take note of this:
The next two weeks could be volatile because of the Electoral College in the US. The hard Brexit is also hot. Corona is off the air.
The Xth LockDown (then until Easter) will not be relevant until after Christmas.
Until then, the following universal recommendation from the leader's bunker (Führerbunker) applies:
Regularly observe the VIX or VXX and
thereby two times Happy Birthday buzzes.
As soon as doubts arise, rather avoid the contact with the stock exchanges or
for your own security take a hedge position.
Related to the indices:
What does not want to rise - that falls,
or what was the saying?
End of the announcement.
Volatility year in review: O $15.74 H $78.84 L $13.15 C <=> $17Volatility year in review:
O $15.74
H $78.84
L $13.15
C <=> $17
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
www.tradingview.com
Dec Hedge: VXX Puts - 18 Dec expiryDecember's Hedge Trade
This trade hedges OLLI my secondary trade which is riskier as it was strategically structured to be the opposite of the border market movement. Hence if OLLI surges this should mitigate the loss.
It is 15% ($827.42 with comms) of the premium from Dec's Primary and Secondary trade. If things go well I should not need to cash this at all.
Bought 95 Puts @ 0.08, Strike 14
It requires an est -26% drop to reach the strike
VXX is rallying up today and its not over yet Futures were all red from Sunday evening leading to over a 2% loss across all major indexes. COVID-19 cases are reaching a new all time high, new lockdowns are being enforced worldwide, the stimulus deal has still not been passed and finally elections are next week. All of this is a perfect recipe for high uncertainty. The VIX reached new session highs on Monday but its just getting started for this week. Key metrics to watch are the RSI and MACD which are both reaching overbought levels. VIX will reach its peak for this week once RSI level is above 780 and the MACD stays above 1. This is a good call spread opportunity. Good Luck.
Nov Hedge: VXX Calls - 20 Nov expiryI've been thinking of ways to hedge my trades to mitigate risk as my trades are mainly naked sold options contracts. This CALL trade is the first live trade of a hedge theory I came up with. If everything goes well this should expire uneventfully.
This Trade is paid for using 15% of the total Premium from the 2 other Nov naked option trades.
I bought the strike price as the previous 2 VXX spikes was between 40-50%.
Nov Trade structure
Trade 1 - SLG sold PUTS is aligned to the larger market direction (Bullish) and is the trade with the largest BP usage (40%). In this case, I did not utilize the full 40% as there was no reason to with my 5% monthly target
Trade 2 - JETS ETF sold CALLS is opposite the market direction with a utilisation of 25% BP
Trade 3 - Is the hedge. This VXX bought CALL is opposite the larger market direction and is funded from 15% of Trade 1 & 2 premiums
I have left 25% BP free in case of margin usage
Scenarios
If everything goes well, my Hedge should expire uneventfully and I keep the premiums from Trade 1 & 2
If things go bullish, Trade 1 will be good, Trade 2 will be at risk, Trade 3 will be uneventful and Trade 1 will lower the loss of Trade 2
If things go bearish, Trade 1 will be at risk, Trade 2 will be good, Trade 3 will be good and the returns of Trade 2 + Trade 3 will lower the loss of Trade 1
It's not full risk coverage but the aim is to mitigate risk. Let's see how this goes and I'll continue optimizing this.
