OIL VIX a NON CONFIRMATION THE Chart posted is that on the OIL VIX we have now dropped in oil and have a nice setup in the oil vix to form a bottom
OVX trade ideas
OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for
Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term.
Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22)
66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%)
Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22)
66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%)
Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22)
65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%)
Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22)
65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%)
Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22)
63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%)
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Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation.
The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now
it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down.
CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to
support Price to the best of their abilities within reason.
They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
OVX - Crude Oil Volatility to Increase 2X @ MinmumThe Gunslingers were lit up again.
OVX is just beginning its move Higher.
Oil can decline to as low as $35 was the OVX to repeat
the Sins of the Past @ 517.
Were it merely to double from here to fill the Gap, $57 OIL
was our of Target several Months ago... it may finally come to
trade barring any major disruption(s).
More $ is lost Retail buying the Dips on the way down than in
almost any other Commodity.
It is a Face Ripping exercise when Oil corrects to its intended FILL.
Any excuse will do, it is far more manipulated than any other Commodity,
including Gold - the Relic of prior Monetary Malfeasance.
OVX push WTI higher?If OVX continues to slide down and DXY continues to slide down then WTI might go up to 60 or 65
░░░░▒▒▒▓▓ CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index ▓▓▒▒▒░░░░Hello.
My name is François Normandeau.
This is an ADX-BRIEFING video focused on CBOE:OVX
The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (CBOE:OVX) can be used
in order to identify important trading opportunities.
Here, OVX is on the right side of this post.
The indicators we see under the price window of OVX mention when the US Oil market
TVC:USOIL
enters a period of statistically significant volatility .
We can then time it with the indicators on West Texas Intermediate
in order to determine entries and exits for actual trades.
More info can be found in the TradingView IDEA related to this post.
Wishing you a great weekend.
François Normandeau
Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
Oil Volatility might have a spring in its step!With the dollar hanging so low these days, Oil has been perking up a bit from its deadened state. The chart you are seeing is the OVX or the volatility chart for Oil. Oil is ready to go somewhere, but where is a hard enough question. August might be rocky considering July's very odd end of the month close, fed week, and earnings time period. The Nasdaq has finally met its match at its super ceiling of approximately 11,070 and there aren't many other places to go. Bulls want to eventually break the bull proof ceiling, but until then, Oil volatility will start to awaken. Oil is very dollar sensitive and right now the Oil Vix is about to have a spring up in its step.
I sat down and labeled out the highest spikes on the chart and the biggest category of oil spikes? Aug, Nov, Dec, and February. August is the hottest month of the year and Nov, Dec, and February are generally winter months so it would make sense that this commodity would be used more. But these are likely the 4 months we would be careful not to get caught in a downtrend.
The common trend between these months as well as any of the months that have smaller spikes on the OVX (meaning down trends) are the first week of the month (the 4th and 7th being common), the middle of the month (the 17th being the most common day) and towards the end of the month in the 20s or seven the 30s. Generally, around the same times the indexes do their thing as well. These spikes are limited and flee as quickly as they come. Some exist for a couple of days, some for one day. Others jump into a trading range. Either way a loose trailing stop might help, but babying your investment might be better. With the volatility, it can go higher on the subsequent days. But for those that hate the mental stress of risk. Grab the money and run. IF it keeps running up. you can always buy more.
!OVX Oil Volatility Long Exposure Added 13:31:50 (UTC) Fri May 2!OVX Oil Volatility Long Exposure Added 13:31:50 (UTC) Fri May 2
$OVX lowest since early March - under $75% $USO $CL_FOil vol down big again ahead of June 2020 expiration
$OVX oil vol near lowest level in 2 months - under 100%More above 0 WTI gets, the lower OVX will go probably.
oil volatility, reversion to the mean oil volatility or the implied volatility of USO is nearing an extreme.the futures are still in a decent contango.
so what does that mean? the cost of options both on the upside and downside is dirt cheap, but the cost of carry spread is nearing a reversion.
in contango CL futures outperform vs USO or a future equivalent etp due to cost to carry/decay. however when in backwardation (expansion in volatility) USO outperforms CL futures to the downside.
how to play. USO leap puts, calendars, put spreads or back ratios. vs CL call debits.
long oil vixGood short for oil here. Alternatively, if oil falls back into the pink channel, these bottom supports may become the new resistance, sending oil much higher.
