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UVXY trade ideas

$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them. If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level. You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here. I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances. Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
2
Short Volatility during rare spikes using leveraged ETF $UVXYOverview Volatility represents how greatly an asset’s prices swing around the mean price. Historically there are rarely brief volatility flare-ups that present trading opportunities. Trying to anticipate volatile events can be costly, because other market participants generally expect the same well known events, and one never knows how big a volatility spike might arise from a given event. Instead if one merely awaits extreme volatility events, which historically are ephemeral, there's a higher probability trade in shorting it. I've thought about this previously, and took the opportunity with Liberation Day to successfully short volatility. Volatility Instrument Selection Choosing an appropriate instrument can aid in the likelihood of a successful short position. Among the options CBOE:UVXY looks attractive for the trade, because it's a leveraged ETF, is highly liquid, and provides options with granular strike prices and expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs are known to decline over time due to Daily rebalancing and compounding effects Volatility drag Cost of leverage Management fees and expenses Path dependency These characteristics of leveraged ETFs provide a structural tailwind to a short position, because the instrument naturally declines over time. This phenomenon easy enough to see on a CBOE:UVXY weekly chart Moreover selection of a liquid product is prudent. At the time of writing CBOE:UVXY has an average daily volume north of $22 million dollars for the past 30 days. Trade execution Execution of the trade starts with recognition of a highly volatile event, this is both technical and discretionary. From there a trader is advised to use their preferred tactics to select entry, stop-loss and exit points. Personally I like to use chart patterns across different timeframes in tandem with Relative Strength Index, and to a lesser extent volume to identify trading setups. I use longer term charts to identify a trend, and shorter timeframe charts to determine entry and exit points. The timeframe(s) depend on the particular instrument and what the charts look like at the time of the trade. During the Liberation Day Volatility Short trade, I've been using 1W, 1D, 4H and 1H charts. The 1H chart has been suitable for entering an exiting trades. Head & Shoulders patterns have manifested both on price and momentum alongside declining volume. I've posted a couple CBOE:UVXY minds along the way. Additional Thoughts Volatility can also be used generally to anticipate moves in other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, crypto and commodities. Using the levels from that last chart fed into successful NASDAQ:TQQQ & NASDAQ:SQQQ trades in the aftermath of Liberation Day.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by quickshiftinn
Major Reversal Ahead for UVXY?We’ve identified a Head & Shoulders pattern, aligning with our Elliott Wave count showing a completed 5-wave move up ✅ This strongly suggests we’re due for an ABC correction to the downside 🔻 🟡 Yellow boxes mark our high-probability targets. This bearish view is also supported by our broader outlook: A bullish move is expected in the U.S. market, which naturally points to UVXY moving lower. Everything lines up — let’s see how it unfolds 👀
CBOE:UVXY
by VitalDirection
12/04 UVXY long Hello traders, It’s time to take a look at UVXY again. Here are a few reasons why you might consider buying VIX for hedging or profit. Either way, it’s not a bad idea to allocate some funds: 1. Potential Yen-Carry Trade Unwind: There’s a strong possibility we’ll see another round of yen-carry trades unwinding as Japan prepares for another prime rate increase. 2. SPY Resistance Levels: SPY is approaching the 6100 area, which is a key resistance zone. I anticipate a pullback to the 6000 area, possibly testing it tomorrow or Friday. This movement could push UVXY toward the 21 level in the short term. Additionally, UVXY is a good mid-term hold since SPY has a higher probability of moving downward than upward in the coming days. May the trend be with you. AP
CBOE:UVXYLong
by aparkon
$UVXY: the next move, to $50?I've been watching the CBOE:UVXY for months now trying to anticipate the next large move. Throughout September and October I was anticipating a larger move to play out, but we ended up just trading in a range. Luckily got a few profitable moves in the chop and got out at the high right before the election. Then I thought there would be a larger drop. I entered in the low FWB:20S earlier this week and sold my spot position today on the move higher. Now what I'm anticipating from here is a decline in vol early in the week and a rally in the market. On Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd be looking to go long volatility again as I think the NVDA reaction after market close Wednesday is going to cause some volatility in the markets. Lots of reasons are lining up to believe the outcome of NVDA earnings will be bearish. I have a pivot on the chart on Wednesday. The NVDA chart has stalled at resistance and gapped lower. Etc. I think this will be the last large move in vol until early 2025 (Feb-March).So in other words, after this selloff the market rallies into Q1 2025. In 2025, we will make volatility great again. I think we're going to see a resurgence of vol and we're going to see covid style numbers get printed in vol with 200-400% moves. However, let's wait until this move plays out first before we focus on 2025. I'm looking to enter calls early next week for 12/20 $30C.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
27