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VIX trade ideas

🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨 Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market. Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market. 💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes: If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend. If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment. It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics. 💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022. 💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction. CONCLUSION : The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape. ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further: Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends. Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market. Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market. Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500. These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities. Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
TVC:VIXLong
by International_Leeroy
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange line represents SPX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
12
VIX upward bias from mid May onwardsDespite the news we see the VIX-Index is moving downwards, which makes sense if one visualises the money-flow energies. We will see the lowest VIX by end of April/beginning of May. From mid May onwards we can expect a critical time for the stockmarket with a bias of weakness or even down-trend as the VIX has the bias to move up strongly. We do not know the catalysts at the moment (banking crisis?) but we know the cyclical patterns of money-flow and that should make us very careful.
TVC:VIXShort
by Woerle
A Deeper Looking Into VIXThere are issues when it comes to the VIX volatility index's ability to project impending volatility - in part because options themselves are increasingly speculative vehicles rather than mere hedges to the underlying - but there is still a lot to glean from the the implied measures of activity. Aside from the SKEW in implieds showing tail risk and volatility of volatility gauge showing underlying habits of jumpiness that the VIX alone doesn't well capture, I like the comparison of a shorter and longer duration gauge. I thought we didn't have any robust short-term implied readings for the US indices space since VXST was scrapped some years ago, but apparently we now have CBOE:VIX9D - which covers is pretty self explanatory - relative to the 30-day traditional index. It's not the 'overnight' relative to '1-week' I like to pull from expensive data providers for FX volatility comparisons, but it can give useful insight. What do the VIX9D - VIX suggest now? That we are underpricing the potential for a strong reaction (regardless of direction) heading into Wednesday CPI and Friday bank earnings.
TVC:VIX
by JohnKicklighter
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / COMPRESSION / DIVERGENCE / PUTOVERCALLDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an update on a MACRO analysis of VIX VOLATILITY CYCLES. The creation of a set of new cycles is marked when VIX finds a new floor of support. POINTS: 1. Deviations have been adequately adjusted for VIX with a 7 Point difference between CHANNELS. 2. Price Action is currently resting at NEW FLOOR of 19 & Price Action is consolidating. 3. 5 YEAR TREND LINE IS APPROACHING MONTHLY PRICE ACTION FLOOR. 3. NO RECESSION AFTER 1998 HAS EVER COME TO AN END WITHOUT VIX FIRST SPIKING TO 40 OR 45 AT LEAST. RSI: There is in fact a lot to be said for RSI as it rests roughly below the 50 Point average which would signal that RSI is set to flip into Oversold territory. RSI must reach the 30 Point average in the coming weeks or anything above the 30 Point average & rising could signal a divergence occurring between ascending RSI LEVELS & CONSOLIDATING PRICE ACTION WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SOME VIOLENT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MACD: As of now MACD is resting at an average oversold level of -2.0 but is signaling a move to the upside in coming weeks. MAIN POINTS OF CONTROL: 1. RSI DIVERENCE OCCURS AS RSI RISES & PRICE ACTION CONSOLIDATES. 2. MACD FLIPS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. 3. A BREAK OF 21 POINTS FOR PRICE ACTION CAN BE INDICATIVE OF FURTHER UPSIDE FOR VIX IN THIS SCENARIO. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
Fed today and expected moves in price and volThe Fed decision today with probably give the market their expected 25bp hike, the devil in the detail is always the press conference and any potential guidance offered, the market is pricing in much slower and ending to rate hikes and possible cuts by year-end. BUT he has consistently said there will be not cuts this year !! and that could disappoint bulls and a quick reversal could ensue. place your bets and good luck out there. Today is about watch the first hour after the announcement manage existing positions and don't get sucked into the frenzy after the announcement the Algo's will kill you
TVC:VIX
by MarkLangley
Largest Crash of our Lifetimes is here! For Starters - Go Watch this guy as he is 100% spot on. twitter.com Lets start with a Chart of the VIX From October 12th (the bottom of the last market rally). Using the 1hr $VIX Chart, you can see we have 5 open gaps. We filled the last gap TODAY: And in fact - we now have a gap overhead! And the VIX bottomed directly into its 100month SMA. If you watch the SPX and the $VIX side by side, this rally has been mechanical and algo driven, filling both SPX and VIX gaps during the entire rally. Onto the SPX. SPX I think set a very sneaky bull trap at the 200dma this week. We are back into an upper trendline which is where the 50w sits as well. SPX has a small open gap at 4200 - but that is going to be REALLY tough to fill from here. What SPX does have is open gaps all the way down to 910 from 2008 Here is where the real pressure come from - Bond yields are about to Each Selloff in the SPX from this upper trendline area has been around a 20% drop. This would take us down to ~ 3200 on SPX and fill lots of downside gaps. The REAL Driver - Bonds. The bond market has largely priced in all of the Fed Rates Hikes and has moved on. What it is starting to look for now is "what is next". What comes next is the slaughter of earnings in Q1 of 2023. Here I show the 2yr Bond (which is basically the shadow Fed Funds Rate) in candles, the actual Fed Funds Rate in Orange, and $TLT in Blue. What you can see is that basically EVERY TIME that the 2yr (candles) crosses BELOW the Fed Funds rate (Orange Line) - the long bond (blue line) starts a massive rally as the next Fed rate cut cycle is coming into play. What Bulls don't understand is that when the Fed is cutting rates in a global recession - that isn't bullish. It's VERY bearish because the underlying economy is deteriorating and the companies earnings are crashing. If you aren't long Bonds already, start building a position. TLT could easily double in the next year. The 2s/10s Yield Curve is the most inverted it has been in HISTORY You want to buy bonds when the curve start to UN-INVERT as this means the front end of the curve is going to 0, and you will get massive capital appreciation of long bond holdings like TLT Energy has already caught on Energy stocks are WAY overdone - and Oil is starting its next big leg down. Oil is extremely sensitive and has already caught on to the coming massive global recession in 2023. How to Play This 1) Buy Long bonds like $TLT or $ZROZ 2) Short indexes/banks/Semi Conductors / Energy
TVC:VIXShort
by Baero-Trading
16
The curious case for a $28 VIX trip... FUD about to hit markets?FUD FUD FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. The 3 letters every trader on the street should know. No matter if you are dealing with Cryptocurrencies, Stocks or Forex, no one wants to wake up to an overnight position hit by FUD. The VIX has long been known as the leading indicator as to the sentiment of the markets. It is known as the fear index and right now it is unreasonably low compared to recent history and current events. I mean we did just arrest our previous President and current candidate for President. Away from politics we also found ourselves in a currency war with the BLOC using the Chinese Yuan for settlements over the US Dollar. Well aside from economics, we still are funding our ongoing proxy war in Ukraine with the only other 2 superpowers on the planet. Well, Away from politics, economics, and war.... Oh wait, yeah the data on our economy came in pretty meh (not impressive). So why in the world would the VIX be representing so much strength? Careful, you are starting to think for yourself and our TV overlords don't like that so much. But you are starting down the right track. The VIX should be easily in the low to mid 20's but instead its flexing at 19.01?!? For reference the 50 Moving Average is 20.63 and the midline of the current Bollinger Bands is 22.04 with the low band being 16.83 and the high band being 27.25. If I was thinking about the next few weeks I would probably think that our world right now is providing significant enough risk to justify a trip northward towards the midline @ 22.04 but actually even higher to the high band of 27.25. Recently we touched 29 multiple times in recent weeks but immediately rejected and shot down to the 19.01 where we sit currently. Rejecting off a ceiling once, twice and even sometimes three times is common but I probably wouldn't need very many fingers to count the times an Index pegged a ceiling 4 times and didnt break through it significantly. The market has stayed propped up on hopium for long enough and now its time to start pricing in reality. All is NOT well. I don't view this as a doomsday scenario at all but we need to move closer to reality. I see 28 as a start, it would signify the markets beginning to accept reality and no longer rely on the Buy the Dip hopium that retail investors bankrupted themselves on over the last 2 years. $28 Vix is what i see coming. Just documenting my own thoughts from my own charts. Dont mind me. Most likely not a human anyway.
TVC:VIXLong
by TheStockMarketSniper
2