VVIX to the moonIn this simple chart, take notice on RSI and it's stochastic. They are about to push upwards.
For the past months VVIX was artificially (?) suppressed. For a storm to come, a calm must precede.
Putin the meteorologist warned us about the storm.
Therefore expect VVIX to explode, which means VIX must do the same.
And when they go up, SPX goes Skyfall - just like James Bond.
VVIX trade ideas
VVIX/VIX suggests growing possibility of a market crash One to watch in the coming days...
In the past a break down of these VVIX/VIX trendlines is generally followed by a market crash.
VIX measures the short-term volatility of the S&P 500 index, whilst VVIX measures the volatility of the price of the VIX. In other words, VVIX is a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index and alludes to how quickly market sentiment changes.
A closer view of VVIX/VIX correlation since 2020 crash - I will grow more concerned below the October 2021 double bottom at 4.66
This recent downturn has been fueled by the new covid variant Omnicron, but also more recently by the FED's comments about increasing the pace of tapering. The latter poses longer lasting risks to the markets.
On the flip side - percentage of stocks below 20-day average metrics are at extreme oversold levels and it is not unreasonable to expect a relief rally here - but the real questions are how long this lasts, how the longer average metrics develop, and how VVIX/VIX correlation plays out over the coming days
VVIX/VIX CheatcodeThis has accurately called the 3 major tops of the macro downtrend days before they happen. It also shows that at the bottom of the channel the market is close to bottoming out. Align where this tops out with the SPY & QQQ. This is for biz neets that don't know how to type vvix/vix in the search bar.
VVIX - Vol of Vol Building StrengthThough it is early, VVIX is actually building bullish momentum on a day when the VIX is being crushed. The VIX is currently below 20. This market has tail risk and it may take something big, an outlier, to break it. So far it looks as though this hidden strength in vol of vol could unleash something soon, potentially in the fall of 2022. To be continued...
VVIX/VIX OVERBOUGHT ON THE 1 DAY! TREND REVERSAL APPROACHING?
VVIX/VIX, 1DAY: The VVIX / VIX aka "The Vol of Vol", is essentially the historical volatility of the VIX , in relation to its own recent history as represented by the VVIX and over the current volatility of options on the SPX as measured by the VIX. It is a way of measuring current volatility against a second order measure of volatility gauging the "rate of change of the rate of change". We can also use VVIX/VIX to gauge the current volatility against its relative history and when the VIX (denominator) gets too low in relation to its relative history as represented by the VVIX in the numerator, we can see this relationship emerge on our RSI. The 1 DAY RSI on the VVIX/ VIX has been a YTD predictor of tops and bottoms. It has recently recached an overbought reading on the RSI as illustrated above. We also see that signal has yet to breach the 0.5 EXT on our Fibs giving a confluence of indications that a VVIX/VIX trend reversal (volatility increase )could be forthcoming. Please take a look at our #SPX analysis in the link below to see where this trend reversal might end up. Buckle up, be agile and stay liquid out there!
Vol of Volatility - Largest Compression of 2022Once they've finished dicking with Vol of Vol - the move
Higher will provide an outright collapse in the Indicies.
It will fill the Lower SPY Gqps @ 338, 285, and 230.
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The Weekly Bowl on the VX indicates it will retest its Hoghs
and exceed them by a large margin.
Time is not on Equities Side.
Try as they might to suppress VX, it too shall fail.
VVIX: Telltale Sign / Large Dunk begins againOnce this completes, rising Bond VX and Elevated Vol of Vol...
A Very Bad Sign as Santa presses his Luck.
The Operators have the ALGOs tee'd up to reverse this absurd
non-sense once we see VX Vol crushed to Support.
Should be a stunning reversal.
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Depression Trade needs to be priced in...
Then another Whacko response, then new highs...
Then 50% decline in 2022.
Fiddling with explosives... Our Central Prankers.
VVIX - VOL of VolatilitySeasonally, Participation is reduced.
105 has been the Pivot for both higher and lower.
Call Premiums in VX ar 400% Put in a declining Structure.
Elevated.
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Pressure is mounting in a Full Retracement within the VX Complex.
What upends it...
No idea, but it will not be something already "Known"
And therein lies the Danger.
VVIX - Vol of Vol / Tamping Down Delta - Large OffsidesThe issue is this...
"Offsides, Out of Balance" Conditions are beginning to show clear signs
of extremes once again.
They are now 2X.
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Observe the VVIX very closely.
Arrangements are under immense duress.
VVIX - The PullbackThe VX Complex is once again being given the runaround.
IV drove Options prices significantly higher for a short duration.
The Operators are reeling it back in for Fills.
Inst's continue moving to Firms with perceived Pricing
Power - Nessicities aka "the Things we Need" - A 7.26% Rise in 10 Yr Yields
is beginning to create further disarray.
This is going to get Nastyoce again.
Violent Price action, Today was simply a FILL for Lower.
VVIX - Building CausationVXX (M1/M2- VX) is showing signs of Life as the VVIX Pivots around 105, our indicated Pivot.
It's going to require next week to continue to resolve as M2 appears to be catching the Higher
Bids now as M1 continues to spread its 30 Day Maturity forward.
Many are going to be caught offsides...
VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the
100 Level.
Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November.
This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November.
The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement.
The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement.
This occurred October 19th - Wednesday.
Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX.
It is quite large...
and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the
potential for Higher Equities Complex.
They have set this up perfectly.
Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable
given the Roll Yields.
Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change.
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Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.
VVIX - Vol of Vol / The attempted Crush ContinuesThat said...
Good Luck Riggers, it will not work.
CBOE VVIX Index attempts to represent - volatility of volatility in as much VVIX
measures the anticipated volatility of the 30-day forward price of VIX.
Simply put - it is measuring the M1 / M2 VIX 30 Day ST Short-term Volatility.
For those of you who do not understand how the VIX is calculated, you are missing
a very important understanding we've explained here many times.
If you missed this, educate yourself.
This is Hypothetical for the VIX futures contract in that the VIX itself remains
within a Constant 30 day Maturity.
These indicators should be used as though your trading success depends upon it.
It does indeed.
We can use the Vol of Vol's range for further Information as to where Price can
gyrate into Roll / Settle.
Add it to your set of Tools if you have not, it does assist in preventing DGing.
The Divergences are Building in VVIX as well....
And Reggies know where HK leans on Divergences.
- HK
VVIX - 30 Day Forward Volatility - Vol of VolToday presents an opportunity for Volatility to expand or contract significantly
at approximately 12:30 PM EST.
VVIX is calculated using the implied volatility of out-of-the-money (OTM) put options
in the VIX itself.
The VVIX is defending the Counter-Trend Long. It presents downside risk for the
Equity Complex is approaching.
@ 8:30 AM EST
Average Hourly Earnings
Non-Farm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
9:45 AM EST
Final Services PMI
10:100 AM EST
Final Services PMI
The Federal Reserve Coupon Purchases
$0
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It is important to note the Data will beat.
Unemployment benefit Drop-Offs will assure it.
In addition, people returning to work will assist
the numbers.
This will create an interesting and potentially
dangerous reaction.
The Fed's 1/2 Mandates is Full-Employment.
It implies one of their goals are being met.
In addition, it implies increased probability
of them carrying forward with their indicated
"Taper" of MBS/Bond Purchases.
It is not "Bullish", quite the opposite.
Expect the "Delta Variant" to be front and
center today as the parallel excuse to be
bantered about for continued support of the
Equity Complex.
The Spin will be full tilt.
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We have 3 Gaps below on the Indices.
Each Instrument treaded Resistance during Globex and although
we have been making higher highs and higher lows...
It appears things are about to change given the VVIX's Bid for
protection on the 30 Day Curve for Puts, the VXX supports this
as well.
The highs remain unbroken, they can be as it's Friday, a low
participation Day, as well it is the last day of Summer Trading.
The FED is steeping aside today, with No Bond Coupon Purchases.
Volumes continue to dry up.
It will be up to BR/VG to hold this hot mess togher.
Wish them Luck in this effort.
