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VXMV2025 trade ideas

Volatility Trades UVXY, SVIX, VXX and Risk On/OffVolatility Trades Do you trade symbols such as SVIX, VXX, UVXY or even UVIX? These are all volatility trades either long or short. I have come up with an indicator that I use to keep myself on the right side of volatility. It is also a good measure of RISK-ON/RISK-OFF. Where am I in the Volatility Trade? Full disclosure I am long volatility. It has not been an easy ride. I was long VXX call options on 3/26. On Liberation day, (4/2), got a sell signal, so I sold. Markets freaked out around 4:10pm so I bought UVXY after hours on my buy signal. I am still holding and moving my stop up. The Indicator I developed an oscillator indicator that charts the EMA of the VX futures roll yield along with the roll yield itself. It also has a quick-view table of the VIX, VX1, VX2 futures, the current roll yield and Contango/Backwardation status. It is free, search on "UM VIX status table and Roll Yield with EMA" This chart shows the VX1 futures with the roll yield indicator. I use several other indicators for trades on this hourly chart but the heart of the volatility trade strategy is this: Strategy: When: The VX futures roll yield turns down or red, begin looking for long volatility trades. This can take on a variety of formats including long VX futures, VXX, UVXY, UVIX or call options on any of the listed. Exit the long volatility, when the VIX futures roll yield turns green. You can proactively close any long position using your own indicators or judgement, but when the roll yield turns red to green, this is hard "out" or exit. The VX futures roll yield turns up or green, begin looking for short volatility trades. This too can take on any number of formats including short the VX futures, long SVXY, long SVIX or call options on any of these. Here is some real world trading of UVXY with this indicator: Here are a couple real world SVIX trades. (Note I had to roll back to November 2024 for the examples) Here is a chart of the S&P500 Futures with the same indicators: Notice when the volatility subsides/roll yield EMA turns down/red, stocks tend to rise. So when is a crash over?? When the VX futures come out of Backwardation and go into Contango with a positive roll yield, this "usually" leads to a risk-on environment. (This is the green fill above zero on the oscillator). I set an alert on the roll yield EMA and any cross of the roll yield zero line. No indicator is full-proof. Do your own homework and use good money management. But if you trade any of the volatility ETFs/ETNs, check out this indicator. Keep in mind, these instruments different animals from stocks and other ETFs. These are based on a combination of the front two month VIX futures contracts, so the ETFs/ETNs do not trade like stocks. My Chart Setup and Indicators: Security - VX1. (VIX front month futures contract). ( you can use the VIX, but VX1 seems smoother with more data points given a 23 hour trading day) Time Frame - 1 hour RSI. - UM-Relative Strength index with Trending EMA, RSI 65, EMA 220, OHLC4 WMA - 65 period UM VIX Status table with Roll Yield - 89 period EMA, table location lower right. Additional thoughts: I left much of this strategy open-ended. I am not going to tell you how to trade volatility because, well its volatile! Adopt this indicator to your style of trading and timeframe. Experiment with the settings and backtest it. Dates I suggest you review: 12/24, 7/24, 1/22, 3/22. If you can get the data, look at 2/20. Let me know if it helps you out. Use shorter time frames for long volatility - 1 hour is my goto. But always look at the daily for larger context. Happy Trading.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by UnderwearMillionaire
VX Critical Resistance TestVX is back up near an important resistance level here around 22 after breaking out of its descending channel. This level goes back to September of last year and has been unable to sustain above on its one breakout earlier in March. We'll see if its able to break and sustain this time or not. it could lead to a bounce on the major indexes, but look out below if not. Next potential targets for VX would be the yearly high and trendline above. If we do get the upside break for VX, I'd expect ES/NQ to head down to the lows from August of last year before any significant support is found.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Bearish Outlook for VX1!Bearish Post Description for TradingView Title: Bearish Outlook on VIX Futures - Time to Brace for a Pullback! Hey traders, take a look at this VIX Futures chart (CBOE Volatility Index - VX1 Futures) published by FairValueBuffet on TradingView (Mar 10, 2025, 20:58 UTC). The technicals are screaming caution, and here’s why: - Supply/Demand Zone Breakdown: We’ve hit a critical supply zone (highlighted in yellow) with a sharp spike, suggesting heavy selling pressure. The price action is showing rejection at this level, hinting at a potential reversal. - Moving Averages: The 18-week and 52-week SMAs are converging, with the price breaking below the shorter-term SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. - Bearish Divergence: The RSI and Williams %R at the bottom show clear bearish divergence. Despite a price spike, the momentum indicators are declining, indicating weakening bullish strength. - Seasonality Indicator: The bottom-right seasonality chart (COT data for VX Futures) shows a historical tendency for volatility spikes around this time, often followed by a correction. With the VIX jumping to 24.700 and a volume of 137.66K, coupled with the bearish technical setup, I’m anticipating a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the 20.000 support level—failure to hold could see us testing lower grounds. Let’s stay cautious and consider short opportunities or hedging strategies! --- CBOE:VX1! CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY Bullish Case for S&P 500 - Fundamental Perspective While the VIX chart suggests short-term volatility, the broader S&P 500 presents a compelling bullish case based on fundamentals as of March 10, 2025. Here’s why we might see upside potential: - Economic Resilience: Recent data points to robust corporate earnings growth, with many S&P 500 companies exceeding Q4 2024 expectations. This earnings strength supports a sustained rally. - Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Lower interest rates typically boost equity valuations, especially for growth stocks in the S&P 500. - Gold and Bonds Correlation: The chart shows a dip in gold prices and bond yields stabilizing, which historically correlates with risk-on sentiment. This could drive capital back into equities, favoring the S&P 500. - Market Sentiment: Despite short-term volatility (as seen in the VIX), investor confidence remains high, supported by strong consumer spending and improving global trade conditions. Given these fundamentals, the S&P 500 could be poised for a bullish run, especially if volatility subsides and the 18-week SMA on the VIX chart starts to flatten. Consider long positions or adding exposure if the market holds key support levels. Stay tuned for confirmation! --- Note: This analysis is based on the provided chart and my knowledge up to March 10, 2025. For the latest updates or to validate these trends, I can perform a web search or analyze additional X posts if requested! Not Financial Advice
CBOE:VX1!
by FairValueBuffet
2
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - VX Trend BreakVX tried to breakout recently, but just couldn't do it. Looks like a triple top at 18.50 and we also have an uptrend break to the downside. Watching for another move down to the 16-15.80 area, that will be critical. If it can reclaim the uptrend, upside target is still 18.50 until it breaks. Pretty large range from 18.50 - 15.80 as volatility has picked up so don't want to get baited by a quick move. Will look for confirmation above or below the range, but for now VX is collapsing again.
CBOE:VX1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - VX BreakoutLooks like the market is preparing for some volatility heading into FOMC, which is not something not we've been seeing as of late. We could be due for a sharp correction if this continues, but of course it could also just be some hedging and might not amount to anything. Pretty good looking chart, nice bounce off the low at 15.80, but for now it is still in the range from 15.80 - 16.80. Given the inverse H&S + channel break and bounce at 15.80 I'd expect more upside in the short term, but it has to clear 16.80 first. If it does and keeps going, look out below on ES.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
VX hit 20VX: Daily: -broke a downtrend in momentum Weekly: (will publish separately) -hit the uptrend line and bounced away ES: breaking down YM: breaking down NQ: also large candle though support PA and rsi not broken yet it would be nice to get a bounce in the indices and pullback in the vx, but thats hard to tell with so many trend violations today. could see bounce, or just sideways hold before the next drop Notes: --yield curve no longer inverted; reverted this week --there have been a few one-day-wonder pulbacks in the market lately with a MM revival the following day; this feels different...
CBOE:VX1!Long
by Lingamfelter
VX Channel BreakVX has just broken above its ascending channel, just barely. Definitely could go either way still. Today was a little unusual with VX and stocks rising together. Could just be some hedging before Powell or something, but normally this type of action leads to a sell off in equities after. Hard to say how big of one, especially in these conditions. VX has resistance above and I wouldn't be super bullish on it until it reclaims 15.25, but there's room for at least some upside and I'd expect more momentum if it does reclaim 15.25. Important to watch.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Coming Back to LifeToday's opening 15 minutes was one of the more wild ones I've seen. It's been a wild week in general. Every single morning we have been hit with war fear news right at open. Each one led to a big VX spike and near instant recovery. You can see the huge spikes every morning, starting with last Friday. What I think is important here is that it has came right back up every time. Despite getting sold off after every rip, it ends up higher a few days later. This is a big change from what we've seen this year. VX has not been able to sustain any moves up whatsoever. I'm seeing a lot of potential strength being built up. We have another descending bullish wedge formation, this one is more of a broadening wedge. We'll see if this time is any different. Looking for a move up to 18.40 or back down to 15.25. All of these dips on SPY getting bought could very well lead to more upside and squeezes. My intuition tells me this has not been normal action and the market is preparing for a big move after whip sawing back and forth all week. a VX breakout would confirm that will be a move to the downside, especially if SPY falls below $585 at the same time.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - VX Falling WedgeWill be watching this wedge on VX throughout the week for directional bias on SPY. VX is near the top end now trying to break. If it does break up, first target is 16.60 followed by ~17. To the downside, it has critical support around 15.25, we could see another big leg up for SPY if it breaks below and continues falling. Will be cautious with longs if VX breaks out, but if it continues getting crushed it'll be back to risk on mode after a brief pause late last week. This chart alone should provide a lot of valuable info, especially when you combine it with SPY.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Paths Before FOMCLooks like we'll have a pretty good setup with VX during or after FOMC. We'll probably get some volatile movements after the minutes release and then more volatility during and after Powell's speech starting 30 minutes later. VX has been getting crushed all week, back below 16 now. This will be a key watch during the volatility. I could see it spiking up to 16 and failing. If we get an initial sell off, you could look for longs when VX hits 16, stop above. Other scenario is VX doesn't rally at all and goes straight down even more which would spark yet another rally for SPY. Downside target = ~14.75 First upside target = 16.60 VX below 16 = Bullish SPY VX above 16 = Bearish SPY
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - VX Risk On?VX has had a hard rejection off of the 21 area. It failed to breakout of its bull flag and instead fell all the way back below support around 18.40. Two massive red days in a row for VX leading into the election results and FOMC. The market is seemingly going full risk on mode heading into the election. That typically means we're going to rocket in my experience, but also leaves the door open for extreme volatility if the market gets a surprise. Having said all that, this 18.40-18.20 area is critical for rest of the week and it makes things fairly simple. Final downside target for VX would be around 16.45. VX below 18.40 = Bullish for SPY VX above 18.40 = Bearish for SPY
CBOE:VX1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - VX Critical SupportTo wrap up the ideas for this week I have to choose VX, I don't trade it directly but it will be key to determine the direction for the rest of the week. So far it has held around 18.40, which was also last week's low. In addition to the 18.40 support here we also have trendline support. First upside target would be around 18.90 and then 19.40. Last week's low is one of the most critical things in the market right now for this week if you ask me. If VX ends up failing here, we will most likely see the melt up continue and gain momentum. Otherwise we may chop around if VX holds the range, if it happens to break above 19.40 that's when it comes time to be bearish on ES.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - VX S/R FlipBig move up for VX after bouncing near 18.40. This is mostly due to some weakness in semis after leaked earnings on ASML. 19.40 will be a key area on VX moving forward. If it goes up there and fails I'd be looking for longs on ES/SPY. If it's able to break above and continue higher, I'll start looking for shorts. Overall, the range is from 19.40 - 18.40 so I'm looking for the top end of the range to fail or a breakout above if it doesn't hold.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Ascending ChannelVX has shown a lot of strength over the last couple of weeks which I consider to be unusual. DXY and treasury yields have also spiked recently, but the equity market remains resilient. We've been chopping for weeks and we'll likely see a big move once this range breaks. VX had a big red day today after rejecting a previous high. This is what VX would normally do when stocks are rallying, but that hasn't been the case until today. VX dropped today, but it's still way too high. This is a large divergence that has been building for weeks. We should see some fireworks soon, maybe after CPI but who knows. If this recent VX strength results in a failure then it has a long way to fall and we may be back to full risk on mode for a while. It will be an important watch. I'd be concerned watching treasury yields and VX climb along with stocks if I were a bull. but we'll see.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
1
Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures. Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election. Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets. This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk. The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
CBOE:VXV2024
by Pepperstone
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - VX Falling WedgeI posted a similar chart last week, but as I'm looking at things after today's action I still think this is the most important thing in the market right now so it's going at #1 even if I don't plan to trade it directly. I wouldn't recommend trading VIX or UVXY, maybe VX futures but that's not for me. Instead, I used the VX futures to determine direction on ES. This will make things very simple if we actually move this week unlike today. VX has been hanging around even throughout the recent rally to ATH. I think this is noteworthy, but still need confirmation it's going to continue to stick around and potentially gain strength. This pattern gives us the confirmation we need, it should tell all. If we get the upside break and it can take out the 19.20 level, I would expect it to continue up to at least 22.60. That's the recent swing high and is also just below the flag pole target. If VX fails and falls below the wedge, that would also mean it broke below 16.45, which is the line in the sand. If VX can't hold there, it's time for more risk on. TLDR: VX below 19.20 = bullish for ES VX below 16.45 = really bullish for ES VX above 19.20 = bearish for ES VX above 22.60 = really bearish for ES
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Using VX to Spot Divergences + Intraweek UpdateWe've had some great examples of clear VX divergences lately so I wanted to highlight that here. VX is a key component of my strategy and I don't believe it is used enough by most traders. It'll be important to monitor moving forward as we see rising volatility and global tensions. I also go over the most important levels and watches for the remainder of the week. Maybe it's another short lived sell off, but I believe there's going to be a point where perma bulls buying every dip are going to wish they hadn't. We'll see, if VX explodes over 22.60 this week I'd be very careful on either side. Expect big ranges until VX falls back down. Money can be made very quickly in a market like this if you learn how to use spot key levels on the major indexes and VX. It doesn't come without risk, but remember you don't have to know where price is headed next to make money.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays