VXM1! trade ideas
Vix August futures going higherAugust will be a politically volatile month. VIX Aug futures r 2nd most active series. Technically the mkt remains above the Longest Line so value favors the highs. The Andrew's Pitchfork is trending up with good target levels against UML (red arrow/MIN target) Watch for violation of recent VIX highs at 37-38. Note the boxes, maybe repeating again heading into August.
VIX Here is an easy ta for VIX.
Vix felt on support from march and formed bull flag pattern last week.
BB are open so bullish signal.
RSI bullish signal 7,50 (same as in February)
My opinion:
Wait for conformation from SP500 (2730) or start trade with stop loss at 32.
Anyway, next weeks could be interesting in case of new spread of corona.
Good luck for your trading :)
VIX - Fast Turtle BuySome of you contacted me asking why today's market drop..
Well, you don't have to know the reason, but it's important to check VIX chart every morning before you trade.
As previously shared, when VIX up, stock market down.
Yesterday, we are seeing VIX shows fast turtle buy (DJ fast turtle Sell)... and today, FKLI follow with 1.8% drop and triggered fast turtle sell signal.
Generally DJ and FKLI still uptrend with FiFT still +ve.
However, I will be staying aside until retracement is done.
Example of Volatility Futures Dictating the Market, AgainCurious why there's a hold-up?
It's S&P volatility, once again. It is weird though; don't see much "volatility" at all.
What I have seen many times throughout this rally is that VX futures hold back the market from moving, and it is both strange and boring to watch.
Seems Fibonacci exists everywhere, especially in the Vix-ish domain. The idea that the cross between laughably random EMAs may seem like a joke, but it is not.
TradingView does not have hourly calculations, but this is close enough. Investing.com has precise measures, so you can watch the world's most boring show there if you are uncertain about where the market is heading.
Just going to wait for the crossover before celebrating because I have seen this story drag on unnecessarily long too many times.
CBOE:VIX
SPCFD:SPX
VIX Moving in Range Bounce. Be CautiousVIX index move below SMA20 within downtrend channel. Which is good for Stock Market
However, since 18 May until today, VIX is moving in range bound closing between 28.8 and 31 (That's why you can see most stocks are moving side way)
MONITOR
IF VIX breaks above 31, then stock market will RETRACE.
IF VIX breaks and STAY above SMA20 (Above 32), then most likely stock market will enter BEARISH territory.
IF VIX breaks below 28, then stock market will RALLY
VIX ranging between 2 EMA - Be cautiousWe want VIX to drop for Market to go up.
VIX is ranging between EMA50 (Resisted) and EMA200 (supported).
Currently VIX is seems to be at Resistance (EMA50) - GOOD sign.
FiFT are still +ve ( We want VIX FiFT to be RED for Market to go up)
On the other hand, DJ is forming Bullish Piercing pattern (Good Sign) but no Fast Turtle Buy signal yet.
DJ need to break and stay above 23730 for Turtle Buy signal.
FiFT also still -ve indicating Bear still around to control the market.
We need to see :-
1) VIX FiFT turn into -ve (RED)
2) Fast Turtle Sell in VIX
3) Best if ATOM Sell in VIX too..
4) DJ FiFT turn into +ve
5) Fast Turtle Buy in DJ
6) DJ back above EMA50
This is the Most Important Chart in the World The most important chart in the world right now: VIX futures. That golden line at 31.3 must hold to maintain the bearish scenario alive. Notice what is doing the MACD histogram on the daily TF.
VIX Bullish Divergence - Negative Sentiment for Stock MarketVIX double bottom. Fail to drop below 20.
Classic Bullish Divergence (Price Lower Low, FiFT/MACD Higher Low)
Fast Turtle buy with FiFT +ve
Bullish Stochastic
VIX up, Stock down.
FKLI = Potential double top around 1400 level. FiFT still positive and heavy.
Dow Jone TVC:DJI = Gap down. Fast Turtle Sell, Bearish Divergence (Price Higher High, FiFT/Stochastic /MACD higher low)!!!, FiFT turned -ve
S&P500 OANDA:SPX500USD = Bearish Harami Fast Turtle Sell. FiFT turned bearish. Bearish Divergence. Bear is in control
NASDAQ = Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Fast Turtle Sell, Bearish Divergence.
DAX = Dark Cloud cover bearish candle with higher volume. Bearish Divergence, FiFT still +ve but may follow global trend.
XLK (Technology Sector) = Bearish divergence. Shooting star on weekly chart.
I'll be staying out buying stock for now (Not even executing Hit and Run strategy).
Possibly the most important chart right now...Possibly the most important chart right now... especially if you are a bear.
VIX futures still holding.
VIX appear to reverse to BULLISH - Fear is backFTSEMYX:FBMKLCI
Fast Turtle Buy appear for the first time is weeks.
It seems like VIX is bouncing from Fibo .618
ATOM Bearish trend back into neutral zone.
FiFT still -ve but BoD appears..
VIX up => Stock Down
Meaning :- Fear amongst the investors increases. Expect stock market BULL run to pause or may turn BEARISH.
VIX is retesting support at 40. INTRODUCTION
VIX is the ticker symbol for CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.
It is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.
When VIX index moving up, it's indicating fear amongs the investor has increased. The probability of market sell off is high when VIX rally. i.e VIX up, Stock Down.
ANALYIS
VIX is easing since 20 Mar, which led to small rally in stock after sharp drop due to Covid19 pendamic.
Currently VIX is retesting at support around 40 which confluence to key fibo 0.618 and EMA50.
FiFT indicator is still in bearish mode and volume is getting thin.
MACD is also still bearish but seems like turning.
CONCLUSION
VIX is resting at support. Therefore, most stocks should be currently at Resistance zone.
IF VIX bounce up, then chances of Stock Sell-Off is high.
IF VIX able to break below 40, then stock will continue to rally.
Considering all the observations above, probability of VIX bounce up (Stock sell-off) is higher.
Hence, it's best to stay aside for now.
I will publish analysis of the few popular stocks which align to this findings.
A spread on volatility (VIX)During this time, we are witnessing to a surge in volatility. Spreads on VIX are becoming interesting. I wouldn't consider the first deliveries as we do not yet know when this period of fear on the financial markets will end.
The spread I propose is VXK20-VXM20 (to sell). As we can see from the chart, the spread has turned into an always stronger backwardation (the same did the VIX term structure). The seasonality is (in theory) bearish, but that doesn't mean the spread will drop in the next days/weeks.
We have to wait for the end of this wave of panic, before selling the spread with, as the target, a return in contango.
Vix furtues spreads and stocks above 20day lows.. Vix furtues spreads and stocks above 20day lows.. a good point to mark the end of the market drop by spoting divergence between price index and vix spreads or stocks above 20days lows
SPX - FookinGAMMABro'sREAD:
R azor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
E xtrapolate Out the BullShit
A ssess the Environment We are In
D igress toward Adaptable/Flexible Strategies
Don’t get hooked on hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate! TEAMs via Simpleton-Leadership”
VX Volatility Spread...Interesting!Front End vs Back End Spread...wait for the flip??? HEAD SHOTs ONLY
Volatility Coiling to ExplodeHard to ignore this pattern. VIX futures look poised to explode higher in the coming months.
VIX breaking support The VIX has broken a long-term supporting trend line and this might indicate that the much-anticipated correction is going to be an inversion and bullish continuation. If the S&P500 can breakout above the upper resistance trend lines on the weekly chart, it might just fool everyone again.
This would invalidate my prior short sale plan. And breaking this trend line on the VIX should not be overlooked or taken lightly for use trading with real money.
WaitingThere is no catalyst yet for a reversal on the VIX. However, we aren't far away from a long term supply area at the beginning of the year. While I expect more bullish movement, the supply line is where it could get interesting and reverse. We would need to see less demand volume and rejection of highs at this level to consider a change in direction. That said, there is another point of resistance higher, if a pullback does not appear at the marked supply line.
Convergence devolved into flat channel, dragging continuesTrading VIX since the break-out on Oct 4th hasn't been easier.
WHY
8 week channel
perfect BB enveloping
clear VP matching
Action to take
trade on daily chart
have your SL sit aside channel
