VIX futures consolidation periodI think VIX futures either consolidate for a period before breaking out again or gets crushed lower so SPY can go higher.
VXM1! trade ideas
VX Falling WedgesThe volatility crush we have seen lately isn't quite like anything I've seen before. The market is in risk on mode and has been all year. VX is sitting at all time lows at the moment, but has recently broken out above a falling wedge, and then another after that. Each breakout has been short lived and VX tends to always collapse shortly after any rallies in this market. Negative data is shrugged off immediately and any dips are bought.
This is the major pattern and until it changes, shorts are not going to work. This is the third wedge in a row which is why I decided to post this idea because I find it interesting. We have a potential catalyst tomorrow as well, but it appears the market is not worried about it and usually that means nothing bad will happen. However, if PCE does come in unexpectedly hot while VX is at all time lows and no one is hedged, it could be catastrophic. I don't have any expectations for now, just waiting to see.
VX will be key in determining if any sell offs that occur have legs or not. If it breaks above this wedge and takes out previous highs I'd say look out below. Otherwise, we may just keep rallying all summer long, which is typical for July and August.
VX Bull FlagsThis is an interesting chart here on VX. We have a series of falling wedges/bull flags. We have the longer term falling wedge and then the previous shorter term bull flag that led to a small breakout before eventually falling back down. Now we are seeing yet another bull flag/falling wedge, third in a row now. VX bottomed today at the bottom end of the current wedge and near all time lows.
I've been waiting for a significant VX breakout for weeks now, but it just hasn't happened. VX is being crushed over and over, but when the time comes it will breakout eventually. Hard to time, it has been failing almost immediately after every rally. We'll have to wait and see if this time is any different. I think if VX finally goes and NQ remains below 20k along with some more NVDA weakness, we'll see a big correction. Otherwise VX is just gonna keep decaying and the grind up will continue.
VX Bull FlagWe have another bull flag on VX forming over a couple of days. VX just had a similar bull flag breakout last Thursday, but it failed on Friday. We'll see if it can breakout again and sustain this time. Looking pretty scary for bulls right now with NQ and Semis breaching critical support while VX is showing life again. Bulls have managed to push value higher after every dip this year so far, we'll see if they can do it again.
Daily Recap + PCE PreviewI recap today's action which was a red day for a change. I'll be watching the reaction to PCE tomorrow closely.
VX Bull FlagVX is finally showing some strength and has been maintaining a rally it started last week. Has a nice bull flag here and is also above a falling wedge it just broke out of. Will be looking to see if this can continue higher and put more pressure on SPY and QQQ.
VX BreakoutI've posted a few ideas on VX, mostly focusing on a falling wedge from the top in April, but there's another wedge on a smaller time frame shown here. VX has broken above both the longer term and shorter term wedges. I would say this is a pretty large divergence, because ES and NQ are making new all time highs every day, but VX is showing strength.
VX has failed to show any strength since April, so it seems quite odd to me that it's gaining strength as we rally. Highly suspicious in my opinion, will be an important watch moving forward.
Market Crash - VX Breakout We are finally seeing the strength in have been expecting from VX today. This is a pretty large divergence between VX and NQ so I'd expect more downside today unless.VX fails as usual. I would not want to be a bull if this thing gets moving after breaking a downtrend that started in April.
Market Crash - VX Falling WedgeVX is near all time lows and normally I would say that means shorts should be avoided. That's normally how it goes, but it obviously does rally at times, it's just very weak since early 2023. It is usually against me rules to place any trades if VX does not confirm my bias.
This has been the most tricky part for me when it comes to my market crash prediction. We should be seeing some signs of new strength for VX if a crash is actually coming. Instead, VX continues to immediately roll over shortly after every pop and seems to always end up back at all time lows in short order.
While all the recent action is looking bearish for VX in my view, we still have this major falling wedge pattern, and if it ends up being valid and causing a breakout, the move should be substantial and last a while. There's a big difference between a simple correction and a crash like I'm talking about now.
Believe it or not, I shorted the top in 2022. I expected a correction, I did not have doomsday thoughts and fears. This time I do. I'm serious about this and it's why I'm sharing. My point there is that VX will spike at some point and there will be a pullback, even if it takes years. When that breakout occurs, it still has key areas to break above in order to cause a full blown crash. The first level I want to see it take out is $21.65, then the 2023 high around $30. If it stops there, not much a crash will be had, but that would obviously cause significant downside, but no global financial collapse like I'm predicting. I need to see it take out $30 and return to the 2022 highs, at that point it would be a lot more reasonable to say there's a crash underway.
Small Account Challenge Day 18 - Silver SqueezeAnother rough day in the challenge and another unacceptably large loss. Gotta refocus here, got my face ripped off by silver and shouldn't really have been trading such a risky ticker in this account. Especially when talking about shorting something while it is in the middle of a short squeeze.
Still feeling good about my trading lately, just got a little complacent with my position sizing. I have no clue what the market is doing right now. I usually have a solid thesis I at least somewhat believe in. I have many thoughts about what could happen if we up or down, but I don't know which it is. I've still been making good money lately and that's why I always say "You don't need to know where the market is headed next to make money"
VX Paths for PCEI'm bullish on VX for now, but I'm open to a failure. These are.the paths I'd expect.
VX BreakoutVX has broken out above a descending wedge it was forming for a little over a month. There's also a bull flag on the 15m when you zoom in. Here's a path I'd expect to see if VX continues the breakout. The theme for the past year has always been for VX to fail, so we'll see if his time is any different or not. Key level is 14.15, if it breaks above that things could get wild.
VIX - Fear indicator shows concern but not panicTrue market capitulation fear events are marked with semi generational fear levels of the charts
Were at a point of a resistance , but could easily slice through this level if we get increasing levels of uncertainty and panic entering the markets
Could we see 30? Possibly
VX FakeoutVX tried to breakout earlier but failed and ES held low of day. Choppy action, I expect chop until this range is broken.
VX Range Bound VX has some brutal chop today. I don't expect any further break outs or sell offs on ES until this range on VX is broken one way or the other.
VX Short IdeaVX had a big move down after CPI and also has the contract rollover. It's a ways off resistance now, but it'll most likely revisit the area at some point soon, so I'll be watching this to take a long on ES when it gets there.
VX1 (May) - Play long on PPI and CPITrade from 13th May (Mon) - 15th May (Wed)
UX1 has been compressed very low thru out this week (and very quiet) before key eco data next week. Model indicate that there is a Long VIX coming during the eco release. Hence win-lose odd ratio is in favor of long
Entry price reference: 13.55 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.4 - 15 (spread 0.2 - 0.9)
Stop loss: Wait until PPI release at least, set around 13.1 lowest
Profit take: 15 (or higher if PPI and CPI came slightly hotter than expected)
VX Analysis and Trade IdeasAll of my trade setups will always depend on VX. It had been extremely weak since the market bottomed in April, but it was strong today and that put a lot of pressure on ES. VX rejected at the 13.85 level in had been watching. This is the make or break level for the short term IMO. If it's strong again tomorrow I'll be looking for puts on SPY/QQQ, but if it continues down after rejecting 13.85 I'll trade with a bullish bias.
We have PPI and Powell in the morning along with CPI on Wednesday so monitoring VX will be critical to determine where ES might head next.
Small Account Challenge Day 1 RecapThis is a trade recap from day 1 of my small account options challenge. Aiming for $50k profit with a MIL:1K account. Only made $33 today, but can't complain because of how choppy things were. Happy to have a green day and I'll slowly scale up my size and risk so I can have some bigger winners. Defense is the most important for now.
Weekly Analysis for the Week of 05/13/2024Weekly analysis video including my thoughts about the upcoming economic events and price action on the S&P and Nasdaq.
VX Stair Step DownThis is kind of a messy looking chart, I don't usually like to have this many lines. What I'm trying to illustrate is that VX has been slowly stair stepping down in a pretty controlled manner. I was surprised to see this morning's rally fail with VX doing this, but there is just no momentum or volume this week. Not sure what to make of all of it. The low volume grind up on ES tells me the end is near, but VX is saying to long. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Death of VXVX is near all time lows, had a nice rejection today off the 14.05 level which has sparked a rally. I wouldn't want to be shorting SPY or anything else until this gains some more strength. It had been slowly grinding down in a stair stepping manner which usually means it's going to continue.
VX WeaknessThere's a lot of bears out there right now calling for a crash, and I thought we'd have continued downside as well after seeing VX break out of its major downtrend it has been in since 2022. However, in classic fashion VX hard failed within a few days and ES has already recovered a lot of the losses within a few weeks.
VX has continued to weaken since the market bottomed. There will be no sell off unless VX becomes strong again, it's just a fact. I'll need to see VX above 14.45 to consider being bearish now. I expect all rallies on it to be sold until it breaks this downtrend. Zoom out for longer term levels and trends.
