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Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) FuturesMM

Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

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VXM1! trade ideas

VX WeaknessThere's a lot of bears out there right now calling for a crash, and I thought we'd have continued downside as well after seeing VX break out of its major downtrend it has been in since 2022. However, in classic fashion VX hard failed within a few days and ES has already recovered a lot of the losses within a few weeks. VX has continued to weaken since the market bottomed. There will be no sell off unless VX becomes strong again, it's just a fact. I'll need to see VX above 14.45 to consider being bearish now. I expect all rallies on it to be sold until it breaks this downtrend. Zoom out for longer term levels and trends.
CShort
by AdvancedPlays
This is why the markets will not crash in the near futureFirst things first: This is about the longer-term direction of the market. We're not advising against short positions here. In the short and medium term, they can lead to significant profits. However, given the seemingly fragile nature of the current markets, I'd like to point out the COT (Commitment of Traders) data and the corresponding levels in the Volatility Index (VIX). Here we have a weekly chart. The blue line represents the positions of the Commercials in the VIX. We can see that this line reached significant peaks just before the markets collapsed significantly, by 15% or more. Particularly notable are the extreme levels in November 2019, just weeks before the markets collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Often, the net long positions of the Commercials rise to these extreme levels, and the decline in stock indices occurs several weeks, sometimes a few months later. What does this mean for the current situation? Looking at the net long positions of the Commercials in the VIX, we can see that we are very, very far from extreme levels that would make a significant downturn likely. Therefore, it remains true: The Trend is Your Friend. And the trend continues to point upwards.
C
by Ochlokrat
VIX (MARCH) --> Friday overshoot?Trade for 11th March (Mon) - 12th March (Tue) UX1 went a bit of overshoot with Tech sold off, which also influenced by the weekly Option expiration (rather than Non-farm). However, there is no indication on fear in the market. Our model suggested it will still go compressing till Tuesday (post CPI data) Entry price reference: 15.2 or higher (this is not at Open) UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 14.5 - 16 (spread 0.7 - 1) Stop loss: 15.7 post CPI data release on Tuesday Profit take: 14.5
CShort
by Vixbot
VIX (MARCH) --> In defense mode now?Trade for 4th March (Mon) - 5th March (Tue) With such a hot market in place (still very strong momentum), even though spot vs UX1 has built a big gap on friday and in long run there is no sign of "fear" yet. However the contradict move for UX1 March on Friday indicate a long VIX model signal. Entry price reference: 14.05 or lower UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.8 - 14.5 (spread 0.95 - 1.01) Stop loss: 13.8 (30 mins post US open, basically to avoid a big compression) Profit take: 14.35 (or let it run if VIX surged)
CLong
by Vixbot
VIX (MARCH) --> Thurs down, Fri expecting to go up againWith PPI data release on Friday (again.. there may be a surprise as like Wednesday CPI). Model is expecting a surge on UX1 (March future). Entry point: 14.95 or lower (watch for how Market goes on Thursday and Friday APAC/EU morning session) Profit take: 90bps from Entry or 15.8 (whichever hit). In particular if PPI is much hotter than expected (est. 0.1% on Core PPI), then let it run further till where VVIX has hit the upper bound (use BB 20 EMA, Daily, 1 year window) Stop loss: 14.7 (about 25bps below entry) post PPI release
CLong
by Vixbot
VIX (FEB or MARCH) --> still indicating to go upTrade for 12th Feb 2024 - 13th Feb 2024 (Mon and Tues) With CPI data release on Tuesday, SPX is just slightly above the 5000 threshold (subject to how long it is able to hold) and SPX Monthly Option expiration on Friday. Model is very committed with a long vix signal which led an average lift of 50+ basis pt Any "bad" CPI data point higher than expected could trigger a negative reaction to the market Entry price reference: 13.35 and lower (for Feb Future) OR 14.7 and lower (for March Future) UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.1 - 14 (for Feb Future) OR 14.4 - 15.2 (for March Future) Stop loss: 13.1 for Feb OR 14.4 for March (use 30 mins post US Open) Profit take: 14 for Feb, 15.2 for March (anytime thru out the day)
CLong
by Vixbot
VIX (FEB) - neutralAs now is in this strange pattern where ES up, Vix up, signal continue to keep as Long spread signal, also recent VIX curve move is parallel move in front 3 months (long spread help to keep risk low as no real direction in short or long vix) Entry price reference: 1.06 or better (UX1 is 14.12) UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 1.01 - 1.11 (UX1 is 13.8 - 14.4) Stop loss: not set Profit take: 1.11 Do prepare a UX1 future pop at end of month (also given FED meeting on Wed)
C
by Vixbot
VIX (Jan) PPI potential reaction rangeThis is for Long UX1 (Jan) positioning (1 day), Entry point is 13-13.05 Today PPI is another eco driver for the week. Indicative trading range for Friday is 12.8 - 13.5. If PPI is muted. set stop loss at 12.8 post 30 mins of US open OR profit take any time 13.3 during the day (whichever hit first) If PPI again is hotter than expected, set profit take higher to 13.5. VIX spot is still have a reasonable gap away from UX1 future (Jan) with Monday is also a holiday, can switch to Calendar spread (short Jan long Feb) after the Long VIX exit or by end of US hrs trading
CLong
by Vixbot
1
Volatility may have reached a turning pointWhile more and more investors believe that a sharp price correction has already started and more and more retail traders are opening short positions on the indices, divergence indicators suggest that the VIX could fall soon. The H2 chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle - a trend continuation formation when the bullish trend is in place. The price of the VIX is currently at the upper edge. It would be possible to take a short position or speculate on falling volatility in other assets while quickly finding an error in the analysis.
CShort
by Ochlokrat