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CBOE NASDAQ 100 VolatilityCBOE NASDAQ 100 VolatilityCBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility

CBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility

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VXN trade ideas

VXN (NQ's VIX) Divergences 9/6/2020VXN at the daily view. This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 3 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility, trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength. In this chart, the VXN had RSI divergences prior to the corrections. In addition, the VXN created 3-4 higher lows in a row prior to a correction.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN Refusing to Go Down Without a Fight 8/23/2020VXN at the daily. The VXN refuses to close below 25. According to the PCQ, the P/C ratio for the NQ is at 0.62. With that many calls on the NQ, the VXN is recognizing this as excess greed. What's stopping the VXN from really acting out? High liquidity or a lot of available cash below. So as long as liquidity remains strong, the VXN will only make small jumps just to stay alive. What this tells me is that the NQ may have some juice left to go long. Currently, the bears migrated to gather at the NQ and the RTY. So as long as the bears do not give up, the NQ will likely continue to rise - even though the VXN is craving for a correction. When the NQ bears finally give up, that's when you should start getting a bit bearish. Now why do the bears keep flocking to the NQ? In their minds, they think they can get the most of their shorts from the NQ and tech is overvalued. What they don't know is that the market has a tendency to "sell a dream." The bears keep shorting for their dream of a correction. Little do they know, the NQ was fueled by multiple, multiple short covering rallies. If you look at the stocks with the most short interest, they mostly the big tech stocks. Tesla alone had over $20 billion in short interest. What's the lesson? Do not trade out of your emotions or some grand dream. The market likes to "sell a dream." In this case, the bears keep shorting out of the "hope" of a crash. It's their shorts that fueled the NQ's rise. What's worse? Most bears will make any excuses just to say they were not wrong.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
5
VXN (NQ's VIX) 8/18/2020VXN at the 4 hour. I realized what I did wrong. It's been so long since I updated the VXN that I forgot to add in another channel line below. Whoops. Well, this means that either a volatility jump (more like a bunny hop) will either be within the next two days... That's if the VXN can reclaim that first support. If the first support is not reclaimed, then the next volatility jump may be delayed until next week. Not going to lie. I would be pretty bummed out if volatility is delayed that long. However, high liquidity and available cash makes volatility difficult to maintain. Seriously, do not expect volatility hops to last more than 2 days in these conditions. The NQ and ES are primed for a correction, but these liquidity levels are holding it up.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
NQ's VIX (VXN) 8/17/2020The VXN right now is priming up for a small jump. The projected jump should be within the next 2 days. Maybe Thursday. That said, if it cannot retake that support above, then the projected jump may be delayed until next week. It's why I have multiple support lines. The VXN acts as my "hourglass" of how long do I have before I exit my long positions. High liquidity is what's holding the VXN down. Am I expecting a big jump? Not really. The VXN would need a giant catalyst to get a bigger volatility jump and fight through the liquidity. Bears usually look for a resistance on the NQ. Instead, if they want a pullback, they can find the NQ's "resistance" in the VXN or when it jumps from support.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN (NQ's VIX) Is Dancing 7/31/2020This is the NQ's VIX (VXN) at the 4 hour view. The VXN is still trapped in its wedge and finally moving on to the lower supports. That said, the VXN is also playing the volatility dance. It's making several small volatility jumps to build up for a bigger one. With the VVIX closing above 105, the VXN and VIX are saying that they're not done quite yet. The bigger volatility jump should be when the wedge resistance (blue line) is decisively broken. From the looks of it, longs have plenty of time before that happens. The question is: which will win? The high liquidity in the market or the VXN's volatility dance? It's a battle of attrition. If the VXN keeps this "dance" up for a while, that would give it enough time for the liquidity cycle to reset. That should give a decent pullback for the NQ. Why do I like pullbacks? It provides a lot more opportunities for traders to long from.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN (NQ's VIX) About to Make a DecisionThis is the VXN at the 4 hour. The VXN's minor support is still holding much stronger than I anticipated. I was expecting the second support. We are nearing the end of this wedge. The VXN is warning that a pullback may be imminent in the NQ. The NQ might get one last pre-earnings hype bounce. However, the VXN is providing clues that a pullback will happen shortly afterwards. Institutions are also selling tech shares while Robinhooders are still buying the hype. As stated before, we have seen NQ's top for the rest of the summer back in July 13th. With other sectors being highly undervalued, I don't think the NQ will get back up much higher. The VXN is priming for another volatility jump. That said, I am not expecting the volatility jump to be like March 2020. Liquidity is still pretty high and will most likely keep a cap on the NQ's pullback. However, if the NQ breaks below 10,000, then we may have more downside ahead.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN (NQ's VIX) Stopped by High Liquidity 7/24/2020VXN at the 4 hour view. The VXN was stopped due to high liquidity in the markets right now. Unlike the VIX, I do not expect the VXN to reach flag support (dashed green line) any time soon. NQ has reached a top from July 13th. How long will this top last? Most likely for the rest of the summer. Will it be THE top? I don't know. There are so many calls in the NQ right now that it is aggravating the VXN. Robinhooders got the alert to go long on tech. Guess who also gets those alerts? Institutions do. They're waiting for Robinhooders to pour into the NQ and tech stocks then sell the shares. Why? Distribution Cycle. Institutions will sell overextended and bloated sectors to re-allocate them to undervalued sectors such as financials or transportation. In the short-term, it harms the new trader who treated trading as a game. In the long-term, the Distribution Cycle keeps the economy going. What would businesses do if they don't have banks (financials), shipping (transportation), or merchandise (industrial)? Go under.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN (NASDAQ's VIX) Fighting Back 7/23/2020This is the VXN at the 4 hour view. Okay. I was wrong. I thought the volatility run would be early next week. The VXN tested support early this morning and then found that support. It created a double bottom pattern and started running. It's fighting against the high liquidity. Personally, I am happy that volatility is coming back. Chaos and panic to a group of permabulls is an opportunity for experienced traders. Why did the VXN rise? It's because the NQ has entered the distribution cycle. Institutions are smashing that sell button while Robinhooders and new traders kept buying more tech shares out of hype. Today, the supply of buyers ran out. The P/C Ratio of the NQ was very, very low (below 0.50). VXN was giving a warning for nearly a week now. It's why I didn't long this week. This is how you use the VXN and VIX to your advantage. You can exit longs when it's firing warnings like that. You can wait for the pullback to be over then re-enter long positions at a major support. Ride the bounce.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
Liquidity Holding NQ's VIX (VXN) Down 7/23/2020As I mentioned in my VIX post, liquidity is high. There is so much available cash now that it's drowning volatility runs. It sucks because volatility provides opportunities. Fear provides discounts on stocks and ETFs. Chaos in the market brings more opportunities. Judging by the price action, the VXN is about to test support again. Volatility will most likely be delayed until next week. Due to this liquidity and drowning of the VIX/VXN, a breakout is more likely to happen this week. If the VIX and VXN do not bounce in the next week or two, then volatility will be gone for a while. That would be a trader's nightmare - no volatility.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
1
NQ VIX (VXN) Found Support 7/21/2020This is the VXN at the 4 hour. The VXN found support once again in that green zone of mine. It shouldn't be that big of a surprise. The P/C ratio for the NQ was at 0.37 this morning. That means there were so many calls from small traders that it was exhausting the supply of buyers. That aggravated the VXN at first. When the supply of buyers ran out, the sellers came in the afternoon. That's how you can tell that a pullback was coming soon. Judging by the action, I don't think volatility is done quite yet. Why? It goes back to my NQ question. What will happen to big tech stocks after earnings when expectations are very, very high?
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
1
NQ VIX (VXN) Giving a Warning 7/20/2020NQ's VIX (VXN) closed higher today. Usually, if the NQ goes up, then VXN goes down. That's the usual method. The other reason why a VIX would rise is because there are SO many calls by retail traders at a lightning fast rate. The VXN would recognize this as a buying climax. The NQ entered into a pre-earnings hype rally. This seems like a good set up for a decent run up then a pullback. The XLF was set up the opposite way. They were shorted to a major support at 22.50. The expectation for banks was Armageddon. It turns out that it wasn't as bad as expected, so financials rallied. Here is the question: What would happen to big tech stocks if the expectations are really, really high? Earnings need to be astronomical to be considered a beat. If not, then the big tech may share the same fate as Netflix in post-earnings. This seems like a very good excuse/cover up for institutions to start selling more tech shares for the distribution cycle.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
NQ's VIX (VXN) Getting Ready for a MoveThis is the VXN at the 4 hour. It seems that the NQ is getting ready for a move. I am not expecting the first support to hold for very long. However, if the VXN bounces off the second or third support, then the NQ may be getting the pullback that's been long overdue. Hence, I said pullback and not collapse. The VXN provides clues of when it's safe to enter longs in the NQ and when to exit. When the VXN reached a support to bounce off of a week and a half ago, that's when the NQ pulled back. This is why I study the volatility indices. It helps maximize my longs in the NQ, RTY, and ES. Finding a resistance on the indices may be hard. Finding a support at the volatility indices may be easier to find. This helps correlate a resistance on their equity counterparts.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
NQ's VIX 7/16/2020This is the VXN at the hourly. My VXN channels were a success... so far. You cannot trade the VXN normally. However, you can use the VXN to figure out when the NQ pulls back. When the VXN approaches a major support (bottom 2 green lines), that is the time to exit QQQ/TQQQ. The VXN acts like the VIX. It rises either due to traders ordering too many calls/longs at a lightning rate or when the NQ is about to pullback. This is how you can maximize your awareness of holding onto TQQQ/QQQ/FNGU and when to exit.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
Where is Resistance in the NASDAQ? In VXNThis is the VXN at the 4 hour view. This is the volatility index for the NASDAQ. Recently, I discovered that the VIX and VXN are in an angle since February. Knowing where their volatility indices will bounce would help with exiting longs. Remember, VIX and VXN are not purely inverse indices. They also go up when retail traders are buying calls/longs at a lightning fast rate. The volatility indices may recognize that as a buying climax or a blowoff top. If you know when the VIX/VXN would bounce, you would know when to exit longs. That is a huge advantage over "holding and hoping."
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome
VXN NOT CONFIRMING RISE IN NASDAQ SINCE MID-DECComparison of INVERTED VXN to NASDAQ 100 Futures (NAS100USD). As can see since mid-Dec NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs WHILE VXN HAS BEEN MAKING HIGHER LOWS (INVERTED VXN ABOVE MAKING LOWER HIGHS). This is a MASSIVE BEARISH Divergence for the NASDAQ that is not confirming the rise in the NASDAQ100 rallies and a huge red flag that the NASDAQ is due for a massive drop. This is in line with my calls for drop in the S&P and an explosive rise in US Dollar Index (DXY) as well as coming explosion higher in VIX (see next coming post) as well as explosion higher in VXN coming. See links below to S&P and Dollar Index Elliotwave counts. VIX Elliot wave count and projections coming next. RISK OFF is coming to the markets in a major way soon. Stay tuned for the VIX count. Cheers! Cyrus
CBOE:VXNShort
by cyrusgr8
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index... is interestingThe VIX measures volatility and option pricing for the S&P 500. The VXN measures volatility and option pricing for the Nasdaq-100. That's what this chart shows. Volatility has been subdued since the Coronavirus first broke out. And now, it's time to watch how long that lasts. It may just keep dropping from here. Volatility dropped at the end of the Dot Com Bubble and Financial Crisis for several years. It also peaked at the exact same level. So are we out of this already? Let's just say I have this chart bookmarked.
CBOE:VXN
by scheplick
1