XSP: Elliot C Wave Correction Put
6 week trade: Expecting the C Wave to complete the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension to the downside. Stop sell set at high of 5/3 @ $514.
XSP trade ideas
S&P Poised to Break Resistance XSP on the 4H, price action reacted off the 9SMA and support trend line with the MACD getting a confirming positive cross over by EOD. Along with news that a budget deal was reached, the SP is poised to punch through a resistance area that showed rejections the over the past two weeks.
XSP/SPY...probably pullback followed by upward trendJust sharing what I see...could go up, could go down.
Couple of things to be aware of...RSI is saying overbought, MACD looks like it's peaking, we have a falling wedge still playing out from 2022, and a double top forming. There's a gap up from around Nov 17th. Some pretty squished candles on Wed/Friday (Thanksgiving or declining momentum?). Finally, Powell is speaking on Dec 1st.
So, how do I see this playing out? I think we're going to see a retracement to the 0.382 Fib level to fill in the gap over the next week or so. The biggest question is whether it's a simple pull back or we're going bearish. Odds are, NOT bearish unless Powell says that he's hiking interest rates to the moon, WW3 starts in the Middle East or something crazy.
Possible ways to play it:
- Wait for confirmation of a pullback and go short on something. Alternatively, wait for solid momentum going through $460 and go long (If solid push through $460, my hypothesis is wrong!)
- Assuming we do have a pull back, wait for the bounce at $440 and use that as an opportunity to go long. (Long bets have best odds on SPY!)
- Do NOT overly rely on the targets at $500 (Falling Wedge) and $360 (Double Top). Who knows how long that will take, or even if it materializes!
That's just what this newbie trader sees! Good luck!
And just a pinch of XSPGood morning, probably, where you are.
So it appears that charts have patterns. And those patterns mimic ones found from other sources. Such as this image by an artist known as "Kadey", that has been floating around Reddit. These patterns line up because charts are part of existence, and they follow the same rules as existence, such as the bell curve, Fibonacci stacking (dense packing), cycles, and chaos theory. The mind has a way of matching patterns. So if you can spot these patterns in nature , then maybe they will be profitable for you too.
But as always, we try to manage the far side too.
S&P Mini 500 : the end of the bullish channelWatch out for the breakage of the support line of the bullish channel. probable potential triangle space.
U.S. Earnings June 29 - July 03 Optionable Plays U.S. Earnings June 29 - July 03
Buying Options with Unlimited Profit Capped Risk: OTM Long Call, Long Put, Strangle
PAYX, SHLM, APOL, CAG, GBX, SCHN, AYI, STZ, GIS
Selling Options with Limited Profit Capped/Uncapped Risk: Short Strangle, Short Straddle, Spreads
PKE, CAMP, HELI, IRET, UNF, SBLK, ISCA, MKC
U.S. Earnings June 22-26 Optionable Plays U.S. Earnings Week June 22-16
Also included Implied Volatility as of June 13, Saturday, along with 30 Day Average Implied Volatility. Comparing IV with 30 Day IV, can give an option trader an edge when considering which weekly stock earnings to play.
OTM Long Call , Long Put or Strangle Plays (based on Current IV compared to 30 day avg)
CCL, MU, VIMC, IHS, BBBY, LEN, MON, WGO, ACN, BKS, CMC, SNX
Collecting premium Selling Options
SONC, VIMC, WGO, APOG, SCS, WOR, FINL
U.S. Earnings June 15-19 Optionable Trades U.S. Earnings Week June 15-19
OTM Long Call , Long Put or Strangle Plays (based on Current IV compared to 30 day avg)
DRI
Collecting premium Selling Options
ADBE, BOBE, LZB, ATU, FDX, CLC, JBL, ORCL, KR, RAD, FNSR, RHT, KMX, KBH
Implied Volatility vs 30 Day Average Implied Volatility
values as of June. 13
June 16 Pre-Market
Fact Set Research
Expected 1.41
Current Trend Bullish Price Channel
June 16 After Market
Adobe Systems
Expected .45
Fibonacci 1.272 Extension
Bob Evans
Expected .41
Fibonacci Retrace .618 / 1.272 Extension
Lazy Boy
Expected .38
Fibonacci Extension 1.272
Actuant Corp
Expected .53
Fibonacci 1.618 H/L Target Reached ... could be counter trend rally .886 or 2.618 extended
June 17 Pre-Market
FedEx
Expected 2.58
Fibonacci Extension 1.272
June 17 After Market
China Finance Online
N/A
Fibonacci 1.272 Extension // Went Beyond Fibonacci .618 Retrace .50 1.618 Overextends to 0 (Bankrupt?)
Claycor
Expected .77
1.618 Extension
Jabil Circuit
Expected .49
Ascending Wedge Fibonacci .886 Retracement or Fibonacci 2.618 Extended
Oracle
Expected .87
Flat Base Near Support Fibonacci 1.272 Extension
Pier 1 Imports
Expected .08
Bearish Trend .618 Retrace 1.272 Extension
June 18 Pre-Market
Darden Restaurant
Expected .93
Fibonacci .618 Retrace Fibonacci 1.272 Extension
Kroger
Expected 1.25
Bump and Run Fibonacci 2.618 Extended
Rite Aid
Expected .41
Fibonacci Extension 1.272
June 18 After Market
Finisar
Expected .25
Fibonacci 2.618 -- .886 Confluence Price Target
Red Hat
RHT .41
Fibonacci 2.618 Extended
Smith & Wesson
Expected .35
All Fibonacci Targets Met 1.618 Extension --- Confluence .50 Fibonacci Retrace 1.272 Fibonacci Extension
June 19 Pre-Market
Carmax
Expected .86
Fibonacci .618 Retracement
KB Home
Expected .08
Fibonacci .886 Retracement or 1.618 Extension
