ZB1! - Long Bonds Soar As Recession FearsIn a swift change of fundamental events, we have witnessed the bond market rise to new short term highs @ 116.10.
116.20 - 116.03 is the draw that i am interested in.
ZB1! trade ideas
ZB1! - Immaculate Draw on Buystops! What’s Next?This weeks breakdown covers the similarities bonds and yields have and as mentioned in my most recent analysis with Yields, I was loooking for a draw down to discounted prices.
With that bias in mind, Bonds would be more likely to trade higher as they both highly correlated.
ZB1! - Immaculate Draw on Buystops! What’s Next?This weeks breakdown covers the similarities bonds and yields have and as mentioned in my most recent analysis with Yields, I was loooking for a draw down to discounted prices.
With that bias in mind, Bonds would be more likely to trade higher as they both highly correlated.
Correlation between ZB1! and xxx/usd pairs The 30 Year treasury bonds (ZB1!) is an asset that is really negative correlated with DXY and positive correlated with the other G10 currencies (XXX/USD). Historically The ZB tends to be bearish during the first 2 weeks of february
t-bonds x alt season.t-bonds are primed for lift-off.
we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure.
i'm building a case that says otherwise.
the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market.
it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016.
most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020.
i’m saying it started in 2016,,,
and if i’m right, it just ended.
---
as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year.
normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other.
not this time.
this time, they move together. 1:1.
why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked.
quantitative easing is coming back.
liquidity will expand.
the global liquidity index will rise.
the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy.
---
tldr;
- rate cuts incoming
- making t-bonds go up
- quantitative easing
- nukes the dxy
- making stocks go up
- risk-on environment returns
- risk assets go parabolic
- alt season is triggered.
🌙
US T-Bonds - End of January AnalysisNew month = more opportunities and with January closing just before a weekend, it gives me the added advantage of sitting down with price action whilst the market is not moving and gauging the next draw on liquidity on a macro scale.
This analysis goes over what to expect on a long term time frame; 6-months & 3-months retrospectively and also covers what I expect to take place in the next following weeks.
The monthly highs is 115.01
The monthly lows is 110.19
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Will Rise SoonBond prices have been getting slaughtered for several of months and with the uncertainty around Donald Trumps potential tariffs being placed on China is causing the market to rangebound.
Although the market has been on a freefall since September, there are periods where you are able to eek out some profits if your willing to go against the grain, especially when the technical align up perfectly.
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Falling Off A Cliff! Happy New Year Traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on T-Bond Futures as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias, especially when comparing the strong inverse correlation to Gov 10y yields.
Countries like the UK are suffering as their prices for their bonds are being sold at extreme losses in order to prop up their restrictive policies.
When will it end..?
Global Bonds New LowThe UK bonds have broken below the recent decades-low in the past weeks.
What has caused this turmoil? We will drill down into the specific dates that triggered this meltdown.
10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
T Bond Futures Quarterly chart targets the LOWSDebt levels are increasing
There is insufficient demand to soak issuance.
Interest rates need to increase.
The value of bonds is expected to decline down to the bear flag target.
Powerful Signal for Buy On ZB1As you can see from the chart, the price right now is in a strong support zone, with a Red squeeze candle (spring box). And we are likely to see a significant explosion in price to the 119 levels.
DXY might continues higher price-Bonds might wanna take November high, then continue going lower.
-So can expect dxy higher price. But dxy can also consolidate even if bonds go lower.
-if dxy go higher, then bias for major forex pair will be lower/bearish.
US T-Bonds - Cookin Up The BuystopsIn line with yields repricing lower into a discount as the correlation between bonds and yields is incredibly strong.
120.02 is in the cards for future reference
US T-Bonds - Will Buyers Continue To See Pain?Slowly we see the decline in price action and although it's a very choppy time we are in, the continuation to the downside, at least down to 115.30 going into the next weeks seem very reasonable.
Although bearish, placing shorts in market conditions like this is high risk.
It's worth, at times waiting for the market to draw to you.
RATES : upcoming reversalAs seen last Fall 23 and Spring 24, there is the case that the MOVE index has peaked and is reversing . Thus the bottom for ZB and other rates (ZF, ZN) and TLT is in sight. We consider a buying opportunity
ZB1! Weekly Chart Analysis -NFAZB1! Weekly Chart Analysis -NFA
-Price broke though Weekly Bullish FVG(Support level)
-Weekly Sellside swept 116'09
-Expecting a bounce from 50% of May 28, 2024 candle wick.
US T-Bonds - US Elections Is A Hot Topic Right Now!📉 U.S. Treasury yields dip ahead of key employment data and elections.
10-yr yields hit 3-mo high on less dovish Fed expectations.
76.6% odds of 25 bps cuts in Nov & Dec. Yields influenced by betting markets showing greater odds of Trump presidency & Republican majority.
Going into the future, I will be sitting on my hands, awaiting for more data to make logical decision on the next draw on liquidity.
#TreasuryYields #FedInterestRates #USPolitics
US T-Bonds - Short Term Draw On Sellside119.14 weekly lows is the main point of contact going into next week as we have seen a rejection from the weekly/daily volume imbalance as well as the weekly order block indicating further downside action.
US T-Bonds - 120.08 Has Been DeliveredUsually, bonds and yields work together in harmony where price delivery is clear to see but when we are in times where bonds has delivered to a discount whilst yields is also trading in a discount and has still yet to reach premium levels, it makes me wonder how long this can go on for.
Sitting on my hands awaiting more data and will keep you guys updated.
US T-Bonds - The 120.00 Region Looks Real Promising Similar to US10Y where we have seen 4 consecutive up close candles, with T-Bonds, we have witnessed 4 days worth of bearish price delivery with he volume imbalance on a higher timeframe (1W) consequent encroachment being met as support for the time being.
Not shying away from a manipulative run, targeting 122.25 but would not be phased if we do not even make it to 122.08.
Bias is bearish until 120.25 - 120.08 is booked.
Back to the revaluation stages once I see a daily candle close above Monday's high.
US T-Bonds - Has Delivery To The Upside Subsided? Similar to 10y yields, the reverse has taken place with buystops being delivered to.
Is this where we roll over from?
