T-BOND futures Wednesday 14th AugustPossible reversal in this daily fvg, OR IT WILL PUSH HIGHER TO nNDOG
ZB1! trade ideas
Buy Opportunity on T-Bond Futures Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy T-Bond Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The Target is $129'31 within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
ZB1! - 7 Days Of Heaven! Do You Want It To End?!ZB1! most volatile week in quite a long time; 26th Feb 24 being the only period this year with higher volume numbers, standing at 3.459 Million whilst this weeks volume is 2.677 Million.
The correlation between Yields and Bonds is currently in lockstep motion with each other; both printing 7 straight days of one-way price action.
I will not rule out a potential for a manipulated retracement to the downside but if this was to occur, the infamous level of 120.20 (as documented before in the last 4-weeks of analysis) is a potential draw for smart money to enter the arena.
Looking out for 125.30 highest SIBI & weekly buyside liquidity as my first target
Stretch target for this week is the macro order block @ 129.26
ZB1! - 120.20 Has Been A Stubborn AreaIt's been a relatively quiet week in comparison to the other pairs. Nothing major played out in the bond markets this week other than the last 2 weeks low being taken out before a pullback occurred. If it wasn't for the raid on sellstops, this week would have been an inside week, increasing the possibility for a low resistance liquidity run up to relative equal highs @ 120.20 (as mentioned before in my previous weeks analysis)
Relative equal highs @ 120.20 is prone to negation.
Just as US10y traded up to the volume imbalance before rejecting, repricing to the downside, ZB done the exact opposite, sweeping the 9th Jul 24 sellside before repricing higher. This also begun from Thursday and continued onto Friday.
First draw in liquidity is the premium array @ 119.21 - 119.26
Second draw in liquidity is 120.20 - 120.24
ZB1! - Yields v Bonds Matrix!I am anticipating a continued sell-off, short-term before a rebound, aiming for relative equal highs @ 120.20 - 120.24 as smooth edges tend to be made jagged as more trust is built.
118.30-118.26 T1
118.23 draw on liquidity T2
This might take some time to pan out.
Just gotta trust the process
ZB1! - Putting My Faith In 120.20Bullish bias has continued from last week with no signatures in price action indicating a weakness in the bulls.
It must be mentioned that US10 might have already done it's business below sellside and might be looking to rally higher.
If that is the case, it could take some time than expected for 120.20 to be delivered
ZB1! - Gap Filled, Off We Go!118.27 is playing a stronghold on the intraday timeframes.
Once candle body closes above the consequent encroachment, I'll be looking for further upside action
ZB: Buy ideaBuy idea on ZB1 as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and also the breakout of the resistance line.
US Treasury Bonds Arc of DestinyUS Treasury Bond Arc of Destiny to reach all time highs by Jan 2026 as the Fed cuts interest rates in the face of oncoming recession and a liquidity crisis
ZB1! - Manipulation Before DistributionSellers best have their pick axes and swords cos it's soon going to be a bloody scene!
ZB1! - I Like How Bonds And Yields Sync Up This WeekRemember scalpers, it is imperative that the projection you make is at least 2x larger than the actual pip amount you are aiming for.
I aim for 5-handles consistently which is a mere $250 per contract trading NYSE:ES but i always try to project 10x moves so that i can be confident in risking money for a profit of 5 handles.
$ZB1! - Bears Has Gained Massive Momentum!With weekly buy stops taken, there's only a few alternatives left...
116.16 macro equilibrium is my small hanging fruit Bonds is most likely going to attack!
Are you ready for war?
US Bonds EoM Review Teetering around both PD arrays on a a macro timeframe with 114.11 sellside and 118.23 buyside in scopes
ZB vs US10Y Daily ChartZB - Closures in the VOID previous suggest price will most likely seek higher since this area is "balanced" already
US10Y - Nice rejection after getting the higher prices we expected last week.
Reasonable to assume we could get a closure below the VOID in discount this week
Bonds - Bearish - First Week of JuneContinued bearishness, expecting MMSM to continue here. Bonds have filled & closed below Weekly Fair Value with equal lows on ZF. Although there was SMT at the lows, SMT on the highs printed shortly after followed by bearish order flow on the weekly chart.
Will 50/50 Funds have to Dump the NDX and SPX Friday?Funds that keep a portfolio of 50 percent bonds an 50 percent stocks are now too long the equities. Many times at the end of the month, these funds will have to rebalance. That could lead to big equity sell-offs.
ZB1! - We Could See A Roll OverYields and Bonds seem to be friends as of lately with signatures in both indicating that Bonds has a high possibility of continuing to sell-off into the liquidity void located down at 116.28-116.25.
Sniping overall target of 116.16
ZBvUS10Y 5/20/24Please read descriptions in chart on analysis.
overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's data
$ZB/$TLTvUS10Y - Daily ChartBonds look to have a relief rally look to them.
However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower
- This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS
- With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates
- However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields
HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈
COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
$TLT/US10Y Bonds look to have a relief rally look to them.
However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower
- This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS
- With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates
- However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields
HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈
COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
ZB1! - Correlation With Yields Align It was tricky to outline bias for this week due to the in-alignment in price action between yields and bonds but with more price action printed for me to analyse, it’s a clearer picture for next weeks trading.
Rangebound throughout the week with Monday and Wednesday being the days price action traded as a ‘inside day’, inside of a weekly fair value gap and macro EQ.
Area of interest is 115.24 and 115.05
ZB1! - Double Bottom MatrixSimilar to yield, we have had a one sided approach in regards of price action with the weekly highs being made @ 116.18.
My projection for short term bonds is 114.25 double bottom sweep.,
Short Sweet Simple
