ZB1! -MASSIVE Week Ahead With Interest Rates There is a strong correlation between bonds and yields and so far, the trajectory of price action for bonds has been in my favour, trailing higher and higher into the weekly premium SIBI.
115.18 is the equilibrium of the most immediate swing high to swing low and I am expecting a draw into this area.
116 is a low hanging, first target for next week that I am aiming for and would like to see how Sundays opening reacts (if that’s the case) with 116.
ZB1! trade ideas
ZB1! - Perfection With SIBI RejectionThis weeks delivery has efficiently delivered into a PD array mentioned previous weeks back.
Although bullish, the goal was not to predict the weeks close, just anticipate the draw on liquidity.
Aiming for low hanging fruits, I am looking at the 115.18 weekly EQ as a possible draw going into next week.
$BONDS MMSMWhen analyzing the bonds, we identified an SMT between them at a PDA located in the monthly premium region, further reinforcing the possibility of a DXY rally and a drop in EURUSD, along with bond depreciation. However, to validate this scenario, we still need confirmations on the daily chart to ensure that the bias remains aligned with the market structure.
ZB1! - End of February Analysis- Monthly bullish order block has held up well, supporting the bullish narrative of price drawing up to 120.00
- Monthly candle closed convincingly above the 3 month rejection block @ 117.08.
- Monthly volume imbalance rests a little higher than where the monthly buyside liquidity pool is @ 120.25 – 121.23. Buyside rests @ 120.18 and this is the draw that I am looking forward to going into this months price action
- October 2024’s monthly candle prints a SIBI and this is also a area to study. Many confluences in this area making it high probability for a bullish draw. Bullish delivery with bonds mean bearish delivery for US10Y.
- Successful projection of February's draw on liquidity
ZB1! - Immaculate Draw on Buystops! What’s Next?This weeks breakdown covers the similarities bonds and yields have and as mentioned in my most recent analysis with Yields, I was loooking for a draw down to discounted prices.
With that bias in mind, Bonds would be more likely to trade higher as they both highly correlated.
ZB1! - Immaculate Draw on Buystops! What’s Next?This weeks breakdown covers the similarities bonds and yields have and as mentioned in my most recent analysis with Yields, I was loooking for a draw down to discounted prices.
With that bias in mind, Bonds would be more likely to trade higher as they both highly correlated.
t-bonds x alt season.t-bonds are primed for lift-off.
we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure.
i'm building a case that says otherwise.
the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market.
it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016.
most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020.
i’m saying it started in 2016,,,
and if i’m right, it just ended.
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as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year.
normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other.
not this time.
this time, they move together. 1:1.
why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked.
quantitative easing is coming back.
liquidity will expand.
the global liquidity index will rise.
the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy.
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tldr;
- rate cuts incoming
- making t-bonds go up
- quantitative easing
- nukes the dxy
- making stocks go up
- risk-on environment returns
- risk assets go parabolic
- alt season is triggered.
🌙
US T-Bonds - End of January AnalysisNew month = more opportunities and with January closing just before a weekend, it gives me the added advantage of sitting down with price action whilst the market is not moving and gauging the next draw on liquidity on a macro scale.
This analysis goes over what to expect on a long term time frame; 6-months & 3-months retrospectively and also covers what I expect to take place in the next following weeks.
The monthly highs is 115.01
The monthly lows is 110.19
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Will Rise SoonBond prices have been getting slaughtered for several of months and with the uncertainty around Donald Trumps potential tariffs being placed on China is causing the market to rangebound.
Although the market has been on a freefall since September, there are periods where you are able to eek out some profits if your willing to go against the grain, especially when the technical align up perfectly.
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Falling Off A Cliff! Happy New Year Traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on T-Bond Futures as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias, especially when comparing the strong inverse correlation to Gov 10y yields.
Countries like the UK are suffering as their prices for their bonds are being sold at extreme losses in order to prop up their restrictive policies.
When will it end..?
Global Bonds New LowThe UK bonds have broken below the recent decades-low in the past weeks.
What has caused this turmoil? We will drill down into the specific dates that triggered this meltdown.
10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
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US T-Bonds - Will Buyers Continue To See Pain?Slowly we see the decline in price action and although it's a very choppy time we are in, the continuation to the downside, at least down to 115.30 going into the next weeks seem very reasonable.
Although bearish, placing shorts in market conditions like this is high risk.
It's worth, at times waiting for the market to draw to you.
US T-Bonds - US Elections Is A Hot Topic Right Now!📉 U.S. Treasury yields dip ahead of key employment data and elections.
10-yr yields hit 3-mo high on less dovish Fed expectations.
76.6% odds of 25 bps cuts in Nov & Dec. Yields influenced by betting markets showing greater odds of Trump presidency & Republican majority.
Going into the future, I will be sitting on my hands, awaiting for more data to make logical decision on the next draw on liquidity.
#TreasuryYields #FedInterestRates #USPolitics