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ZB1! trade ideas

ZB1! - 120.20 Has Been A Stubborn AreaIt's been a relatively quiet week in comparison to the other pairs. Nothing major played out in the bond markets this week other than the last 2 weeks low being taken out before a pullback occurred. If it wasn't for the raid on sellstops, this week would have been an inside week, increasing the possibility for a low resistance liquidity run up to relative equal highs @ 120.20 (as mentioned before in my previous weeks analysis) Relative equal highs @ 120.20 is prone to negation. Just as US10y traded up to the volume imbalance before rejecting, repricing to the downside, ZB done the exact opposite, sweeping the 9th Jul 24 sellside before repricing higher. This also begun from Thursday and continued onto Friday. First draw in liquidity is the premium array @ 119.21 - 119.26 Second draw in liquidity is 120.20 - 120.24
CBOT:ZB1!
by LegendSince
$ZB/$TLTvUS10Y - Daily ChartBonds look to have a relief rally look to them. However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower - This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS - With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates - However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈 COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
CBOT:ZB1!
by PJAYDUB504
$TLT/US10Y Bonds look to have a relief rally look to them. However, they are failing to close higher above the BPR or FVG higher. Until that happens, it is merely a retrace to push lower - This will week will start to solidify the Higher for longer with yields/interest rate narrative we have analyzed so far since October 2023 when they first announced 7 cuts which we knew was BS - With that said, HOT CPI print will put bond prices under pressure again signaling no eager need to cut rates - However, if we get an inline or COOL print, the rate cut narrative will start to materialize itself more and traders will start to front run that which will raise bond prices, drop yields HOT CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📉, AMEX:TBT 📈 COOL CPI - NASDAQ:TLT 📈, AMEX:TBT 📉
CBOT:ZB1!
by PJAYDUB504
ZB1! - Pending Explosion In The CardsBeautiful price action throughout last week! Weekly range spans from 115.05 - 112.27 and we have failed to see a run in sellstops even though we have been in a continued bear trend. 113.10 was the area of interest as well as the weekly bullish order block that was mentioned last week and price action bounced of 112.27 like gang busters! We have opened the new week bullish with intraday Buyside @ 114.10 bagged and tagged but I think there is further bullish price action in the cards, with 115 psychological number being daily bearish order block looming ahead. 115 is my first point of interest with the mean threshold @ 115.10 being the second point of interest. Sweet Short & Sharp!
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by LegendSince
Understanding the Decline in ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures)ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures) has witnessed a notable downtrend recently, prompting traders to seek insights into the underlying reasons for this decline. In this analysis, we will delve into various factors contributing to ZB1!'s downward trajectory. Technical Analysis: Breakdown of Support Levels: ZB1! has breached critical support levels on the price chart, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment. This breakdown suggests increased selling pressure and a potential shift in market dynamics towards bearishness. Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover pattern known as the "death cross." This technical signal often suggests a prolonged downtrend, as short-term momentum weakens relative to longer-term trends. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator is indicating oversold conditions, implying that ZB1! may be due for a temporary rebound or consolidation. However, traders should exercise caution, as oversold conditions can persist during strong downtrends, and the RSI alone may not signal a reversal. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Interest Rates Expectations: Expectations of rising interest rates can exert downward pressure on bond prices. As interest rates increase, existing bonds with lower yields become less attractive to investors, leading to selling pressure in the bond market. Traders should monitor central bank communications and economic data releases for clues regarding future interest rate policy. Inflation Concerns: Elevated inflation expectations can negatively impact bond prices. Investors demand higher yields to compensate for the eroding purchasing power of fixed-income investments in an inflationary environment. Any indications of rising inflation or hawkish comments from central banks may contribute to the decline in ZB1!. Improving Economic Outlook: A robust economic outlook can diminish the appeal of safe-haven assets like bonds. Positive economic data releases, such as strong GDP growth, declining unemployment rates, or improving consumer confidence, may prompt investors to rotate out of bonds and into riskier assets, resulting in downward pressure on ZB1!. Conclusion: In summary, multiple factors, both technical and fundamental, are influencing the decline in ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures). Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly, considering short-term trading opportunities and long-term investment perspectives. Additionally, risk management is paramount in navigating volatile market conditions and mitigating potential losses.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by FAICAL_GOUNAINE