ZB1! trade ideas
/ZB : UpdateWe hit 148.25 and are pB from that area. Support comes in at 145.29 and below 144 and then the 142 area. IF we get above the149.06 area then the 151.04 area comes into play.
Bonds to sink or flyThe last bond trade was perfect. Since my last post the futures have soared as well as the TLT etf. The 30 year yield fell as low as 2.90 percent. The yield curve inversion continues to stay towards the middle with the 2 and 5 year below the 1 year and 10 year. The long end has held its ground staying continuously higher. The bond looks as though it may have topped out short term. The sequential is sitting at an 8 on the weekly as well as being far from the 8 ema indicating oversold conditions. The stock market appears to have caught a bid short term so this may lead investors to exit safe havens for the time being. Fed chair Powell appears to be dovish on rates now which could drive up us stocks temporarily. I’m looking for another dip buying opportunity in bonds as I believe what ever news is being floated won’t hold stocks up for long. As soon as they crack bonds will be soaring again. I’m looking at 143 as a support due to prior price activity as well as the 50 week moving average sitting at that level.
/ZN resistance hitWe hit the 146.26 area (red line) also a .23 fib area. Lets see if we get above this. IN the very short term support comes in at around the 145 area and below that in the 142 area. I am choosing only to highlight support on bigger time frames except for the 145 support area. IF we can get past this area then 149.06 area should come into play
/ZN :Is this for real?Pretty spectacular move off the long term trendline. Big ass falling wedge but can also be argued as a H&S. ANyways, pontificating on the pattern is not gonna make us any money. We hit the 23fib. now lets see what happens. Do we get a shallow PB before headed to the 149.07 area before a more meaningful PB to retest the Long term trend line or vice versa. By my estimates, a break of 144-144.13 will reveal more. More important question is what does yields backing off in a rising interest rate environment mean. 2/10 spread 100% delta move from lows..hmmm.
BewareLow volume on this last move. Needs a lot of volume to breakout. Beware of a false break and upthrust to reverse this move on low volume. Buyers are getting thin right at this point.
A pull back in "safety"At last we are seeing a pullback in bonds. The stock market continues to have insane intraday volatility with the Trump trade exponent hanging high. I like bonds right now for this purpose. The pull back constituted nothing more than a small mean reversion in an extended market. Im looking for ZB to get between the 10 and 20 period moving averages. At this point I would feel comfortable taking a position. I will gain exposure through TLT options. The highest risk I see here is a deal being made with china. If that is the case I would imagine stocks will rally hard. Money flows out of bonds into stocks. As long as there is uncertainty about this trade deal I think bonds will be solid, at least until interest rates cannot take anymore of a drop.
Bonds to resume downtrend$XJY Yen to possible resume downtrend with 30Y $TLT bonds. Tracking well together for October. $GLD $GDX $EURUSD $USDJPY
Potential 30Y Bond ShortVolume capitulation on Month CAM S3 backtest. $USO $XLF $TLT $IEF $SPY $QQQ $IWM
30 year bond at yearly low support $ZB_F, $TYX, $TNXBear market headlines about to pop up at -20% from 2016 high
ZB1! US 30-Year Treasury Bond..Bearish! Short and Long Entryswelcome to Geek ChartZ, Chart Reading Made Simple!
As you can see we are very bullish and still have a chance to ride the Bear. I have identifed both short and Long Entrys!
Enjoy
short Entry 141'19
Long entry wide zone 136'26 135'13
[Long] $ZB Mid-termEntry @ below 142'20
Target @ below 148'16
Stop Loss @ 140'24 or lower
Success Probability: High
ZB1! - Bond trend is up, flow is downThe orange stair stepping of the bigger structures (Pivots) on this chart show us, that the trend in this timeframe is up.
But currently there is a opposite flow going on, to the downside. The flow is NOT the trend, but the minor stair stepping down on the level of the market breath.
The white Fork is a "Pullback-Fork", as I call it. It measures the potential pullback (from the upside to the downside in this case), and where price will reach the Centerline (dashed white line) over 80% of time.
The yellow Mini-Fork give us context in the flow of the market. As soon as price is trading above the U-MLH (upper-medianline-parallel), price has a high tendency to swing back to the upside and retrieve it's current direction, the trend (orange stair steps).
Just observe without trading and see how this plays out. You will learn a lot...
P!
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T-Bond Future SEP18 (1d)Trading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 145.34375
Stop Loss (SL) : 145.71875
Take Profit (TP) : 144.53125, 143.59375
Description
ZB formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (145.34375) and place stop after 0.618 level (145.71875). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (144.53125) and 143.59375
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$100 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$1.67/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.4 = -$375/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 4 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.81 = +$812.5 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $1.75 = +$1,750 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$13.36
Loss = -$1,500
Gain#1 = +$1,625
Gain#2 = +$3,500
Total Gain = +$5,125
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.39
Short BUBI think you have three choices: go Long NOB, Short BUB, or do both (in turn, be Short the ZB butterfly). I've chosen to concentrate on BUB trades until my account and my psychology can handle the risk.
