ZB1! trade ideas
ZBU2017 - September T-Bond Futures - Daily and Weekly ReviewDAILY - Double NR7 is making T-Bonds look like there is a shorterm top in place. Trend is still up. Price > 20 (155'01),50,100,200 DMA, with all but the 200 in a positive slope. Strong moving average convergence in the 154'24-155'02 area. Looking to buy a pullback. Long end has been strong with the flattening of the yield curve, this is the current macro trend, anything here should be seen as an adjustment in the curve and profit taking.
WEEKLY - To the moon! Held the 200WkMA and have rallied nicely up from there. Above the 20WkMA as well. Also, the longterm RSI is above its moving average and crossed the 50 line with positive slope. First Resistance viewed at the 50/100WkMA area 158'08 and then the election drop point at 162'00. As in the daily, the macro economics of the flattening yield curve with even some pundits talking inverted should keep the trade in an up trend. As traders watch price action and keep an eye on the TLT as it has a projection point of 131 right now which would line up with the $ZB_F getting to the 160+ area.
Guarded by a dragon?As one of my friends requested, I have made a graphical representation for him.
For several days, we can see that this Bond has been consolidating within the daily resistance and the monthly support. Just a few days ago, the Bond has broken above this consolidation mode. However, as seen on the graph, this may be a false breakout as this has occurred before thus making that area as the 'temporary' daily resistance.
Watch this pair closely!
Trend-follow signals : ZB1! (60min)If you are a trend following trader, find instruments and timeframes that satisfy your trending criteria and just follow the signals. But remember:
consolidation period can be brutal to a trend following strategy. Also, the longer the trend, the greater the chance for a reversal.
With that in mind, make sure you apply proper money management.
ZB - T-Bond ReactionPrice landed back on the blue A/R line.
I see two possible ways:
1) Up and turn at the Centerline, then down to the L-MLH
2) Jump above the Centerline, quick test of it and then up to the "Scene Of Crime", how Shane would say
For now, a play up to the Centerline would not be too shaby.
Happy 2017 to all of you!
P!
T-Bond within a few weeks of MAJOR buy on 128H oscillator?rwilday noticed some good scalp buys this week from Fractal Resonance Composite lines on a 30 minute ZB chart and (facetiously) asked if it was time to buy big. In this case the 30-minute chart gives too narrow a view, but we can find the dominant timescale candidate on the 8H chart's 128H oscillator (FR_COMPONENT timescale multiplier=16). It's lead line is -87% oversold but still tilted down. Another 2-6 weeks may be needed before it flattens and crosses up with bold green dot -0.59% for a potentially MAJOR bi-weekly or monthly buy. The case for local 128H dominance will be strongest then if the 256H lead line (row below) has also flattened WITHOUT reaching its green shade zone.
SuperBull play on BondsWith clear divergence and a clear break of the EMA I expect Bonds to recover back up a little. Adding some positive deltas to my current positions on bonds, I will Buy The 164/166 Call Debit spread and Sell the 162 Put to finance the cost. That would put our break even below the Weakly trend line.
Max Profit $2,171.88
Break even at 161'21
76% of profit
ZB1. Long the waterfallDespite ZB1 can tecnically go lower, I will try to call a bottom here. Surely, Donald Trump´s election haven´t been a cause of today´s movement but indeed accelerated the things.
Will long on opening, with a SL order set at 152. TP1: 170, TP2: 185
Notice bullish divergence on Weekly Timeframe and also bullish divergence on Daily Timeframe