ZB1! trade ideas
30-yr UST: The Long Bond is gonna get heavyEarly signs of topping on ZB futures. Distribution candles on the top, and failing yet again at familiar spot. Setup is not yet confirmed by RSI or MACD, though, and the long bond bounced a bit off the MA(9).
I'm inclined to open half of my position here. A daily close below MA(9) would lead me to open the second half of the short on ZB, targetting MA(200), around 156'00 at current times.
A breakdown below MA(200) is in the cards if Crude Oil (related idea) goes above 35$. Otherwise, good to hop on some ZBs for risk-off trading!
Squeeze on............ BondsInteresting enough, with the pending interest rate decision from the FEDs, The Bond market is experiencing a Squeeze.
Higher interest rates, affects the Bonds and Stocks negative, while the former being more sensitive, Keeping an eye on the Bonds may Shed some lights. If the interest rates will raise or not.
1. ISM index reported low
2. ADP Employment change is high.
Importantly,
3. Non Farm Payroll is due this friday.
That is a good amount of catalyst for the market.
In addition, This being the last month of the year, trading is a bit slow, even with the market failing to notice the divergences between multiple co-related asset classes.
Good Luck
Enjoy the holidays
See you all next year. Unless Something important happens.
Why you should be buying more stocks now...The chart presented is a Comparison of the 30 Year Bond and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Notice how the extreme Peaks in bond prices (hitting the upper trend line) starts a strong rally in Equities and also vise versa. Its a good time to buy stocks, and short bonds. With the Feb raising rate some time in the future, I expect bond price to fall and the the next major top can be estimated when the price hits the lower trend-line. Until then the Trend is your friend...The projections made are just estimates based on the average of the two last occurrences of this pattern. Bullish !
Long 30-Y Treasuries Futures $ZB on Pull BackIn a deflationary environment, yields will continue to fall and bond prices will rise. In many countries, we are seeing structural deflationary pressures that can't seemed to be fixed by adding money supply.
This trade setup looks to buy a pull-back to the P-Pivot level, which also coincides with the up-trending blue slope
As of 13 Jan 2015, price has broken through 148'00 to form the beginnings of an AB=CD pattern.
Using the AB=CD pattern to project key levels, the target set for Profit Target One is at the .618 extension level, right before the All Time High dating back to years ago.
Profit Target Two is set at the full AB=CD extension.
Stop Loss is set to below point B of the AB=CD extension and below the previous weekly low.
Entry: 149'05
Stop loss: 147'05
Profit Target One: 152'25
Profit Target Two: 160'17
Yields vs ZBsTime to short yields. Trajectory on reduction of LSAPs is what's important now, Not the fact that they're reducting, that's priced in and happenin. It's going to be data dependent, which means we're in for another round of this psychological waterboarding of strong highly opinionated market views. This combined with big positioning to the downside for bonds, i.e higher yields. Makes it a low risk contrarian entry.