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ZB1! trade ideas

ZB1! - Weekly When Will The Pain Subside?TVC:US10Y and CBOT:ZB1! are strong reverse correlation between each other and with last weeks price action proving to be mainly bearish, I do not believe the pain to the downside has ended... With TVC:US10Y Thursday's daily bearish hammer forming @ the bullish order block created on Monday, we witnessed a bullish shooting star in CBOT:ZB1! , Thursdays candle which is the complete opposite. I accept a relief rally up into the Mon 12th Feb 24 daily bearish order block with the market trading higher than 119.24, my idea will be negated. I do suspect if the TVC:US10Y is to continue to the upside, CBOT:ZB1! will continue its decline with 116.17 in sight. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by LegendSince
ZB1! - Weekly Continued Selloff? #1Next in line is the T-Bond Futures market with the chances of this asset doing the complete opposite of US10Y 98% of the time. Observing my bias, the biggest risk I face is the ZB1! repricing sharply next week to capitalise on the buy stops above all the short term and intermediate term highs up to 121.10. Moreover, the overall sentiment on bonds is bearish than bullish throughout 2024 with more pain being felt if markets were to engineer price down to 119 (1st target) and 116 (2nd target), which will also be in line with bullish interest rates. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by LegendSince
4
Forex Factory - Volatility Dreams & NightmaresWe saw 6 high impact news released to the market yesterday and it gave me the volatility needed in order for deep liquidity pools to be tested, namely CME_MINI:ES1! daily bullish orderblock located @ 4976 since I was anticipating shorts yesterday to sellside levels. Any day that has more than 3 high impact news releases, expect some form of volatility. If not, that day wouldn't be the ideal day to risk capital and would be best to sit on your hands. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT:ZB1!
by LegendSince
1
Can 30 Year Bond Futures Hold Support? 30-year Bond Futures are currently trading in proximity to crucial support levels, with particular emphasis on the 200-Day EMA, which has consistently served as a support level since the beginning of the trading year. Key Developments: As 2024 commenced, the markets found themselves at a crossroad regarding interest rate expectations. There were concerns about whether the bond market was preemptively factoring in 150 basis points worth of cuts in 2024. Before the release of last week's Producer Price Index (PPI), there was a 60-65% likelihood of an interest rate cut in March, and Fed Funds Futures were pricing in 125 basis points worth of cuts. The PPI for December revealed a deflationary trend, indicating a contraction in producer prices. Initial expectations anticipated a 0.1% increase, but prices contracted by -0.1%. This report prompted a shift in market expectations for interest rate cuts from 125 basis points to 150 basis points, resulting in a current 73% probability of an interest rate cut in March. Technicals: Significant support levels will persist at the 200-Day EMA and the range of 122’15-122’30. Additionally, we are observing an intriguing golden cross setup as the 50-day and 200-day indicators are starting to converge. If the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it would strengthen the conviction for a bond rally. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
The Bottom in Bonds? The 30-year bond futures market has undergone notable shifts, commencing with a bottoming evident in late October. This trend has been significantly influenced by the unveiling of inflation figures, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in November. Economic Data Driving Bonds: PPI indicated deflationary pressures, while the CPI surprisingly showed no increase, setting a distinctive tone in the market. The recent revelation in real consumer spending further added to the intricacies, with a downward revision of 3.6%, falling short of the expected 4.0%. Despite a marginal increase in savings rates month over month (3.8% in October compared to 3.7% in September), signs suggest a potential deceleration in consumer activity. Of paramount significance is the vulnerability observed in the labor market. A deeper downturn in labor market conditions could propel bond prices higher, fueled by heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, particularly for the month of May. Major Technical and Fundamental Headwinds: The bond market currently faces a critical obstacle in the form of overhead resistance within the range of 117-22 to 119-05. Market participants are eagerly anticipating a decisive break and close above this level, viewing it as a pivotal indicator that would lend robust support to the anticipation of an upward trajectory in bond prices. Investors and analysts alike are vigilantly monitoring economic indicators and labor market trends, recognizing their pivotal role in shaping the future direction of 30-year bond futures. The interplay of inflation data, consumer spending patterns, and labor market dynamics sets the stage for a nuanced and closely watched landscape within the bond market. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
US Treasury Long Bond Futures BottomThere is great potential that the 30 year T-bil futures have bottomed. This chart is a micro count version of the final 5th wave of primary wave 1. Depicted as a legal impulse consisting of an expanded flat correction for minor wave 2. Wave 3 is longer than wave 1, so the length rule is satisfied. Minor wave 4 is labeled as a contracting triangle whose internal C wave is a complex zigzag. The Elliott Wave Theory tells us to expect either a short brief fifth wave following a triangle or an egregiously long extension. In this case, it's the latter, as minor wave 5 subdivides as an impulse containing two extensions in both the minute 3rd wave and the minute 5th wave. Given that the guidelines are satisfied, I have no problem making the call that primary wave 1 of the US Treasury 30 year bond bear market is complete.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by ChartWizardTrading
Could AI Help Dampen Inflation?Will the 2020s look like the 1970s with unstable inflation and soaring prices? Or will we return to the 2010s with low stable inflation rates of around 2%? There is a case to be made both ways. Those who worry about the possibility of durably higher inflation argue that the quarter century of low, stable inflation rates was a consequence of the end of the Cold War, globalization and just-in-time supply lines. Now, many of those factors have reversed. Military spending is on the rise worldwide as global tensions mount. Nearshoring and friendshoring are moving production out of China and into places like Vietnam and Mexico but at an increased cost. Finally, just-in-time-delivery has proven to be fragile and creates a strong potential for supply chain disruptions. These factors, combined with shrinking workforces in China, Korea, Japan and much of Europe, could put upward pressure on wages and inflation. But there is a counter argument: technology continues to advance rapidly, and generative AI could pose a threat to many middle-class service professions. And inflation has begun coming down in many countries, led by the United States. In the U.S., core inflation has fallen from 6.6% YoY to just 4.1%, and most of the remaining increase has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, U.S. inflation is running at just 2.1% year-on-year. After a massive global tightening of rates, economies may also slow significantly, reducing inflationary pressures. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group