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ZB1! trade ideas

US Treasury Long Bond Futures BottomThere is great potential that the 30 year T-bil futures have bottomed. This chart is a micro count version of the final 5th wave of primary wave 1. Depicted as a legal impulse consisting of an expanded flat correction for minor wave 2. Wave 3 is longer than wave 1, so the length rule is satisfied. Minor wave 4 is labeled as a contracting triangle whose internal C wave is a complex zigzag. The Elliott Wave Theory tells us to expect either a short brief fifth wave following a triangle or an egregiously long extension. In this case, it's the latter, as minor wave 5 subdivides as an impulse containing two extensions in both the minute 3rd wave and the minute 5th wave. Given that the guidelines are satisfied, I have no problem making the call that primary wave 1 of the US Treasury 30 year bond bear market is complete.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by ChartWizardTrading
Could AI Help Dampen Inflation?Will the 2020s look like the 1970s with unstable inflation and soaring prices? Or will we return to the 2010s with low stable inflation rates of around 2%? There is a case to be made both ways. Those who worry about the possibility of durably higher inflation argue that the quarter century of low, stable inflation rates was a consequence of the end of the Cold War, globalization and just-in-time supply lines. Now, many of those factors have reversed. Military spending is on the rise worldwide as global tensions mount. Nearshoring and friendshoring are moving production out of China and into places like Vietnam and Mexico but at an increased cost. Finally, just-in-time-delivery has proven to be fragile and creates a strong potential for supply chain disruptions. These factors, combined with shrinking workforces in China, Korea, Japan and much of Europe, could put upward pressure on wages and inflation. But there is a counter argument: technology continues to advance rapidly, and generative AI could pose a threat to many middle-class service professions. And inflation has begun coming down in many countries, led by the United States. In the U.S., core inflation has fallen from 6.6% YoY to just 4.1%, and most of the remaining increase has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, U.S. inflation is running at just 2.1% year-on-year. After a massive global tightening of rates, economies may also slow significantly, reducing inflationary pressures. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group
ZBZ3Shorted in Sept shorting in Oct. Another 30 year T-bond short most effective day to open over the last 15 yrs is 10/2 missed it but opening today. Will want to hold this open until the 24th of October. Look at the December Contract as the front running contract for this trade. Futures = Calender spread back date the long side to the March contract. Options... I am torn safe bet is to sell for the premium like a credit spread. But if your willing to chance it and pay the premium a debit spread could be worth it. "Take a wild guess what im shorting in Nov. you'll never guess it." - KewlKat
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by kewlkat
U.S. Treasury Bonds Nearing a Bear Market RallyThe history of the chart doesn’t go back far enough for full context, but the assumption is that a major top in treasury bonds occurred in 2020. Since then, the market has been relentlessly carving out a 5 wave impulsive decline. Since this decline is unfolding in 5 waves, this tells us multiple important things. Firstly, what begins with 5 must also end with 5. And since the decline has already greatly exceeded the end of the previous wave 4, we now know for certain that a major top was printed in 2020. The bond market has a long way to go for recovery, that will likely last well over a decade. But relief is soon on its way. The 5th wave of the decline will finish before long and a multi year bear market rally will ensue to capture the hearts of bulls everywhere. I’m well in front of the market with this analysis and this post will soon be forgotten. But looking back in several years, you’ll know to expect the biggest decline in US Treasury bonds in generations
CBOT:ZB1!
by ChartWizardTrading
Could a Surge in Mortgage Rates Imperil the Housing Market?Over the past 18 months, U.S. mortgage rates have soared from 2.9% to 7.6%, their highest since 2001. Will this tremendous increase in mortgage rates cause the U.S. housing market to crash like it did in 2008? On one hand, higher mortgages have led to a steady decrease in the number of new mortgages being issued. In recent weeks, the number of new mortgages has fallen to its lowest level since 1995. On the other hand, there is a major difference between today and the period leading up to the global financial crisis: vacancy rates. Vacancy rates are extremely low. Before the 2008 financial crisis, 10% of rental properties and 3% of owner-occupied properties were vacant. Today, only 6.4% of rental properties are vacant, near their lowest since 1985, while owner-occupied properties have a record low vacancy of 0.7%. Home prices have stopped rising, but so far, they aren’t collapsing. Over the past year, the price of buying a home in the U.S. has fallen by about 1%, while rental costs have risen by around 8% as higher rates force many would-be buyers into the rental market. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group
T-BOND FUTURES, Massive Double-Bottom-Formation, BREAKOUT-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of T-BOND FUTURES. Within recent times momentous changes emerged within the whole global financial markets as determining factors such as increased consumer demand expenditure and a decreased U.S. CPI have confirmed an important strengthening of the DXY, the U.S.-Dollar Currency Index moving along together with a major uptrend within the bonds. As the bonds market is not about to reverse within the recent times combined with the fact that the DXY stays within a continued uptrend these are factors that I considered within my recent analysis of T-BOND FUTURES as they offer an important view about what is likely to happen next. Major Double-Bottom Indications and Upcoming Price-Action-Determinations: When looking at my chart now T-BOND FUTURES are forming a major formation here, which is a substantial double-bottom formation with the first bottom already being completed and the second bottom reaching the major support zones with a high potential to bounce again. Such a double bottom formation indicates a continued demand and bullish expansion volatility once it has been completed within the schedule. Now as T-BOND FUTURES approach the major supports once again this means that the final completion of the whole double bottom is not far away especially once T-BOND FUTURES move forward with the final breakout above the upper boundaries to complete the massive double bottom formation with a breakout above the neckline with an upwind support determined by the 50-EMA and the 35-EMA. Determined Target Zones and Upcoming Perspectives Together With the Market View: The first confirmation is going to emerge once the breakout above the descending resistance line, in combination with the 50-EMA as well as the 35-EMA has shown up. The second confirmation and therefore the finalization of the whole double bottom formation is going to emerge once the final breakout above the upper boundary neckline of the major double bottom formation has shown up, this is going to complete the whole formation and is going to activate the final target zones as marked. Especially, with a further bullish momentum and uptrend preceding within the DXY and the bonds market such a major breakout possibility increases more and more. The first target zone will be within the 151'05 area, and the second target zone will be within the 172'19. A continued momentum within bonds and the DXY that is accelerating and increasing with the higher highs to be formed is going to determine a fast uptrend and reaching of the targets. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of CHFAUD. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
CBOT:ZB1!
by VincePrince
2
HIGHER INTEREST RATES SOON : KEY INTERMARKET ANALYSISIt is not so well known that the Bond Market are the real secret to understanding the markets, they are like the glitch, the secret code to the markets Bond market which acts as a leading indicator to the Interest rates are heavily bearish Price action interprets that the gap above the accumulation phase still needs to be filled in, this would also cause a crack in correlation between CBOT:ZB1! , CBOT:ZN1! and CBOT:ZF1! . Higher Highs in the CBOT:ZB1! , while lower Highs in CBOT:ZN1! and CBOT:ZF1! Expecting the sell-side targets to be reached sooner or later, this would cause a rise in Interest rates and the prices of commodities and Dollar Index
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by ifeanyichukwu_E
1
Bonds showing signs of a serious risk off scenarioThe rapid decent of Bonds from 129 was telling. Yet while most think that we have reached the bottom there are indications that this is not the case. WE are currently here: ZB is making a retracement, I think we can see a price rebalancing up to 120'22 The potential Highs at 121'31 will lure Buyers, yet a rejection of these levels will have serious indication that investors are in for a rough patch, yields will be higher on the bright side. 🤷🏻‍♂️
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by JP_Tru