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ZB1! trade ideas

What's next for the rate debate?The U.S. interest rate debate changed dramatically in August 2023. The economic debate shifted gears with diminishing concerns about a recession, leading U.S. long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply. And the debate over future Federal Reserve policy transitioned from trying to call the peak in short-term rates to discussing the length of time rates might remain elevated. The net result was a less inverted U.S. yield curve, not because short-term interest rates fell, but because long-term yields rose. With the no recession view becoming the more popular base case, there has also been a shift in the longer-term inflation debate. Without a recession, many economists are coming to the view that core inflation, which the Fed targets, will remain well above the Fed’s 2% target throughout 2024 and possibly longer. We studied extended periods where short-term rates held above the prevailing inflation rate. There appears to be a loose relationship between the growth of nominal GDP and long-term Treasury yields. This makes sense if one thinks about nominal GDP growth as part inflation and part real economic activity, and it helps explain why bond yields have moved higher. Put another way, the period of 1% fed funds rates under the Greenspan Fed in the early 2000s and then the near-zero fed funds rates introduced by the Bernanke Fed after the 2008 Great Recession are historical outliers. These super low rates encouraged a search for yield and popularized the view that the Fed has the market’s back, artificially supporting both equities and bond prices (that is, lower bond yields). The Powell-led Fed is guiding us that those days are in the rearview mirror, and market participants are starting to agree. In his closely watched Jackson Hole speech, Powell highlighted the economic uncertainty ahead and how risk management remains key moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group
11
US TREASURY BOND FUTURE ( T-Bond )US treasury bond future *Below we have 4h FVG and T-Bond should not close 4h candle below 120.20 level if it did then we have a chance of DXY analysis being invalidate, means doller will pump *if T-Bond took support from 120.20 level then our upside target will be the Daily FVG is between 121.21 & 122.06 *If T-Bond started to pump the we got the Daily closing above 122.06 level then long term target will be 123.22 & 124.28. *If this analysis played out then Doller (DXY) will dump and Eur & GBP will pump
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Camouflage89
T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.) Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels. Wait for signs of a reversal, though. p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
CBOT:ZB1!
by Nemo_Confidat
$ZB_F: Huge down trend in T-BondsHere we go again... Weekly down trend just flashed in T-Bond futures / $TYX. The Dollar has been acting bullish for a while, and it is evident in the weekly uptrend reversing the decline in AMEX:UUP from the late 2022 top that kicked of last week. If you follow me, you'd know I've been pounding the table on Dollar longs for a couple days now, and here we are, this makes the bullish case for the Dollar more convincing, and my worries for the fate of the uptrend in stocks keeping me in high alert. As a measure of precaution I've moved back to operating an equal weight long/short portfolio, sourcing ideas fundamentally and technically as per my trading plan I devised in early March this year. I would suggest doing that or if you hold long term positions, like for example being long term long AMEX:SPY , look into call selling for premium harvesting as a means of reducing volatility in your portfolio and generating extra returns on top, as there is a chance of long term sideways and volatile action in stocks going forward. Check out my Twitter profile for more insights regarding this approach, I tweeted about it today. If you short bonds here, stop loss area is a bit above 129'12 to be safe, and try not to risk over 1% of your account in the position, alternatively you can use a put spread where you short OTM puts for the duration of this forecasted trend signal vs a long ATM put position. (Sep puts would do) Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by IvanLabrie
zbVolume Analysis: Analyzing trading volume can provide insights into the strength of price movements. High volume during price advances or declines can indicate the sustainability of the trend. It's important to note that bond markets, including the 30-year Treasury bond market, can be influenced by various factors such as economic indicators, interest rate changes, inflation expectations, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Therefore, it's recommended to combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the bond market and make informed trading decisions.
CBOT:ZB1!
by searchub
US 30Yr T-bondChina money will come to T-bond Nasdaq money, S&P money, Gold money, Silver money will come to T-bond. Dollar is king, But I don't see any further rate hikes. In the case of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, it is worth looking at price hikes in fear of an economic recession. Besides, this seat is dead cat bounce. The US economy appears to be very stable and US tech stocks appear to have entered a reality denial phase. I want to say more, but I think I should end it here to avoid being assassinated.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Seon-DongChung
ZBU2023 Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for ZBU2023. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 126'19. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 129'17 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CBOT:ZBU2023Long
by SignalProvider
7