ZC1! trade ideas
Long C H1 as it is both bullish in FA & TACorn continues to trade along the lower end of the trend channel. Both daily and weeklies are still on the uptrend but watch carefully as some of the momentum indicators continue to flatten.
On the fundamental side, erratic weather patterns in South America and continuous large demand from the Chinese continue the bullish case for the corn and the grains complex. My initial TP on the trade is around 4.50 for starters, entry is 4.25, and stop loss level is set at 4.20. Thinking of an R-Multiple of 5. Though as soon as the trade goes my way, will lift my stops to breakeven.
Three Drives pattern. Trend slowing/changing?I have Adam Grimes book I have been reading and I went back to look because I saw this similar on a daily trade he wrote about on wheat. I'm also considering the 100 month moving average and the fact that were at highs of a big range from 2014 on corn. Currently parabolic on the Daily. I'm expecting a trend change to follow oats and wheat. This pattern as far as the Daily is known as a Three Drives Pattern.
Corn Short, Based on COT data and TAZC1!
Commercial accounts are currently net short on corn futures contracts (-355k contracts), while as noncommercial accounts aka, Retail traders, are net long (+411k contracts). These two positions are at extreme polarized ends of the play. Usually commercials tend to be net short on any asset but its the extremes one should keep an eye on.
Corn is currently at a basing pattern, with a previous impulsive move to the downside. Entering at a base is relatively risky, since the pattern can either turn into a drop base drop or a drop base rally pattern. So one can play this two ways, enter short at the base with a tight SL so if an impulsive move to the upside were to occur, you will stop out with minimal damage. Or, wait for the pattern to play out and if the pattern is a drop base rally, then short a potential double top. The play I am making is short at the base of this pattern with a SL at 407'5.
Targets for the short are
- 0.5 retracement
- 0.618 retracement
- 0.786 retracement
- 305'4
I will be taking profits at each target, with the last target being a runner position.
Corn Bearish ForecastI see a nested supply zone from Daily pressing on resistance 384. We might see bullish spikes trying to break that resistance line, but according to our structure it should fall. We anticipate a bearish move here and it will need confirmation, also monitoring once confirmed.
If it gets below 377, then we might have our bearish bias. But volume or momentum strength will play an important role.
All of my market shared technical set-ups are speculative, they are not guaranteed for accuracy or in completeness in the form of any content. At this profile page, the analysis, ideas and also, the strategy of a chart belongs to Khiwe; -it is not to advice on financial markets; please apply your own analysis and confirm it with price action.
Wyckoff Event in Corn Background:
After a series of Sell Down in Corn ,
we finally see a accumulation and breakout of
the chart signal us that the sell off is over.
The composite man has probably done their
accumulation phase and now is the time to
bring the real rally out from water.
In all the 3x Previous rally
are followed with relatively Higher
Volume . Each Pull back forming
a Higher Low and
showing a Up trend
line is FORMED.
Wyckoff Analysis Events
PS Preliminary Support
SC Selling Climax
AR Automatic Rally
ST Secondary Test
Spring Test
SOS Sign of Strength
LPS Last Point Of Support
BU Back-Up (Small Pull Back After SOS)
Entry : 365-370 (If PB Happen), Otherwise current Price.
Target : T1 410, T2 460
(Before Dec 2020 Contract Expired)
Stop : 355
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Other Wyckoff Analysis on SoyBean