ZC1! trade ideas
Short on CornOn a downtrend, the corn is performing an upswing. My short side starts with the loss of the last minimum price.
My stop is quite interesting, above yesterday´s high and my target is the last dip...or the middle of the andrew´s pitchfork .
Is King Corn about to flex its muscles?Looks the strongest ag. Today.
Waiting. WiIll The King the lead? Or fail like the other ags?
CORN Deflation.!Weekly short target. Might go lower.
Some problem is current El Nino there might give some volatility before target hit.!
If 347-350 holds... decision time soon: key 372+Weekly:
- Range extremely tight now! Major bearish tremdline on top side ard 372, horizontal resistance and possible bullish channel on the lower side ard 345-350
- If price breaks above 372, we could see a big short squeeze
- Heikin-Ashi shows undecision, but with positive divergnece in weekly haDelta
Daily:
- Spike again from key resistance of 347-350, but Ichimoku setup is still bearish.
- Trendline, Kijun, Kumo and 100 WMA has to be broken for further gains. However if Price breaks 368-372, that will be a very strong indication for more Bullish action, in line with the weekly chart! It would be similar to the one we saw last July!
- Heikin Ashi early signal for reversal
Strategy: Hold small long, and do not be shy to leverage up bullish position if you see 372 breaking!
King Corn false breakoutNo bottom in site. Break of 347 confirms. Break back above current T/L at 370 suggests signs of reversal.
Corn Long Term IdeaCorn, shows them in his past aggressiveness very agitated and violent movements, and possibly in future also this is his behavior, reacion, added to it, it is clearly a cone shape, taking into whether the price, and giving its characteristic shape, plus you can see the possible formation of a huge formation type "W", which appears to have a huge reacion future.
How about some "POP" Corn?Corn is ripe for the picking and ready to POP. With glut of corn in silo's we like the downside...BUT, this can either way. Be nimble. We expect a nice 6-8 day run.
Reminder - #Corn Key levelsChart reflects to ZCH6 (March/16) contract.
Upper side:
- 381 -> Daily Kijun, Daily bearish trendline
- 401 -> Daily bullish Kumo breakout validation / Weekly and Monthly bearish trendline breaks / Monthly Tenkan Sen / Weekly Kijun Sen !
Lower side:
- Bullish reversal idea would be invalidated below 363
Price not much changed since last post. Quite firm between daily Tenkan and Kijun. Next break attempt above 381 could accelerate into a short squeeze.
Strategy: Hold 0,5 or maximum 1 risk unit long. Leverage up on firm breaks above bullish upper key levels! Stop at/below 363.
Corn update - Chance for bullish reversal improvesWeekly:
- Remarkable doji Heikin-Ashi candle now from key supp/res. The candle did not have a lower low.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup back to neutral. Kijun Sen may be tested soon at 380!
- Heikin Ashi is firm bullish. haDelta goes higher, it shows momentum gain.
- EWO closing up to zero
Bullish acceleration is expected above 380, but the real game changer would be 400!
Can not post 4H here but I already did it on Twitter this morning.4H Ichimoku setup turned to bullish! Pull backs to 374-375 can be bought!
I increased my longs a bit yesterday.
Higher low, slight bullish biasThere will be front contract change soon, so this time I place ZC2!, which refers to March/2016 contract.
Weekly:
- After testing Kumo, in last 6 weeks price dropped below cloud, but again it looks like printing only a higher low. Channel support held for last 2 weeks. Ichimoku setup can not gain bearish momentum until price trades above 353.
- Heikin Ashi started to signal possible slow down in bearish momentum. Consolidation in progress, which may turn into a pull back this week or next.
- Weekly key reversal levels: 390-400 area and 425 above Kumo.
Daily:
- Ichimoku started to turn back to neutral. Price made its higher low on 17/Nov, since then it is ticking up. First key level is 380+
- Heikin Ashi made a long wicked doji yesterday. It looks like there was a larger buyer in corn market, and price failed to reverse bearish again. Today candle is bullish, confirmed by haDelta above zero and oscillator in green.
Strategy: hold 0,5 unit long.
Will 355-360 key support hold again? - Update with weekly chartWeekly:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral with bearish biased, but asbias. Mkt have been missing real bearish momentum in 2015, Kumo was tested couple of times and forward Kumo has become thin and flat: will be easier to break through in case if a reversal.
- Major bearish trendline is close with its appr. 396 value. Against this we have a shorter term bullish trend channel, with support at 355-360 range. Market is stuck between these support resistance levels. Bears would need a massive break below 355, while Bulls could take a startegic lead really above 400
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, but smoothed haDelta shows losing momentum again. If we close the week higher from current spot price, then weekly candle will have a higher low.
- EWO has minor bearish bias, but vitually almost at zero: market doesn't have a trend wave, just range consolidation.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup has bearish bias, but for validation Price should break prev low (resistance) at 355.
- Heikin Ashi signalled drop in selling interest in last two days as Price approached 355-360 zone. Heikin Ashi candle turns small green, with smoothed haDelta trying to move back above zero line.
- There is some chance for a pull back to 373 key level. For a bullish reversal Price has to close above 380
I still think the chance of a strategic bullish reversal is slowly increasing. First 355 should hold as firm support, then the upper key levels have to be cleared at 380 and 400.
Who knows what El Nino brings us next year...
Note: I keep small long for now as swing trade.
Slight bullish bias in the neutral zoneWeekly:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral
- Heikin Ashi setup is neutral, with some minor bullish bias -> haDelta crosses above SMA3, but it is still ard zero line, so no momentum gain yet.
- Within a few weeks time Pice can get to a very important long term supp/res level: 396+
Long term bearish trendline, Kijun Sen (26 weeks average), future Senkou B (52 weeks average)
- Market has been developing a possible bullish channel since Sept/2014 lows.
- Lower key lvls: 373 (Tenkan) and 355+ (trend channel bottom and and horizontal lvl.
- Upper key levels: 396+ and 419+
Daily:
- This is the textbook example of the possibly most neutral Ichimoku setup: Price is in the Kumo, stays between Tenkan and Kijun. Tenkan is below Kijun, and both average lines are also in the Kumo. Senkou lines and Kijun are flat, not pointing in any direction. Even future Kumo shades over price. Obviously 373 - 385 is a neutral range.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish within the neutral range. Momentum could gain only above 385.
I'd say it is a buy on dips until stays above 373. Would be really bearish only below 355. Would be more bullish above 385 and really strategic bullish above 400!
Based on the weekly chart I have the feeling that Corn is building a longer term bottom and may reverse bullish probably next year. Of course we have to wait for price confirmation, until then it is just an idea and a feeling.
Also imprtant to note, that for a bullish reversal the whole agri complex (Wheat, Corn and Soybeans) has to move in same direction. Right now it is not yet true.
Heikin Ashi buy signalWeekly:
- No change since my last post. recent candle is too young, as it is only Tuesday, but it doesn't have a lower wick so far.
- weekly key levels are: 395 (Kijun Sen) and 415-420 (major downtrend line and weekly Kumo)
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup goes more neutral with slight bullish bias. Price did not even test Kijun, moved higher after touching Tenkan and 100 WMA.
- Heikin Ashi candle signalled sentiment change yesterday, gives a firm buy signal today. haDelta/SMA3 up.
- upper key levels in focus: 395 and 415!
Above 395, and especially above 415 we'd see a major strategic trend reversal!
Simple is beautiful, so is life with all its difficulties.
Regardless of the outcome, or result of this trade, I dedicate this post to my beloved friend, who decided to leave us yesterday... Find peace "Giorgio"!
www.youtube.com
#corn trade bias remains bullish. Look for buy signals in dips!Weekly:
- 350 proved to be a strong support/resistance. No lower low below the Kumo, means bearish resumption failed!
- Ichimoku picture is back to neutral, What's more the bias is switching to bullish! Early signals: weekly candle reaches an up to obvious equilibrium level of Kijun Sen - Senkou B - 100 WMA. Chicou Span is trying to cross back above past candles.
- Heikin Ashi signalled reversal last week, this week the signal turns to confirmed bullish, with green candle and haDelta/SMA3 move back above zero line. The candle has long body, no lower wick and very small higher wick -> this means a really strong momentum
- A bullish channel development may be in place, with focus on 415-420 key area: major downtrend line and spot Kumo. If this ultimate Key level will be broken, next tgts come as 450 and 500.
Daily:
- Extreme short squeeze caused a very sharp spike to the thick Kumo. This move turned Ichimoku picture back to neutral from bearish in two days! Price retreats now a bit, but the bias is bullish until trades above Kijun Sen. This means lower support zone is 370-380
- Heikin Ashi again gave early signal of the overbough situation: haDelta peaked at an extreme high, when Price itself reached Kumo resistance at 395. In two days folowing the peak, candles showed exhaustion and later pull back started.
- Possible supports are: 372 / 376. Watch price action and look for Heikin Ashi buy signal in the support zone!
Corn Weekly And Daily UpdateCorn seems to be in a corrective pattern in red wave 2 that can retrace back to fibo. level of 50-61'8 %. After the correction is completed, price may reach lower levels.
www.ew-forecast.com
December Corn trying to bottom for these 5 reasonsThe 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today:
1. Using the closes -
2. Using the highs -
3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line)
4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) -
5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price, didn't make a new low with price, so it is indicating some internal strength here for Corn.
Two of the big reasons for the drop in corn, from my perspective, was that corn production had a rough start and then it picked up and simultaneously commercial hedgers were selling corn futures and put themselves heavily short the market right at the highs and have taken the market down since then. I don't know what will happen to corn production, nor do I know what the commercial hedgers are going to do with their positions, so I can only speculate on what the market is telling me using technical analysis. With that in mind, I like my odds here. I don't have a lot of risk, but I have a lot of upside. In that same vein, if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade. Why? Because that's how markets work. You don't get free money handed to you from the market, but if you do, be very thankful and take it.
Regards,
Tim 9:48AM EST
