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ZL1! trade ideas

CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil: Price started the week with quite an impulsive move to the downside of well over 4% in just 2 sessions but made a relatively strong corrective move back up during especially the Thursday session. Nothing changes in our outlook and we maintain our bear bias. We expect price to continue its downtrend immediately from Monday's opening onward. The crucial resistance levels are 32.97 for the short term and 33.59 for the mid term. But as long as these levels are not broken to the upside we see no reason to reconsider our bias.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil still undecidedBeanoil: Price keeps us in doubt on where to look for the short term. Longer term we remain bearish with a price target at 2600 or lower but our key question for today is where price will move during the coming week. We wanted to see either a decisive break of the 3260/3250 level and a break of the 3220 mark after that or a move to the upside to reach for 36 before reversing back down. It initially looked like it was actually happening during last Thursday's session that price was going to break through to the downside but Friday's strong move up of almost 3% made the picture look quite different again. Still, Friday's candle has a fairly long topping tail which clearly indicates that the bulls ran out of air, at least for that day. We need to kick the can a bit further down the street on this chart to decide whether external markets will put weight on this price and pull it down along or that price will indeed make one swing up first during the coming 1 to 2 weeks. We will come with an update on Wednesday or Thursday.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil stopped out and waitingBeanoil: During the 2nd half of August we were taken a bit by surprise by price's upswing which stopped us out from our bear bias. The picture of today does not really give us a very clear vision on the nearby future. Principally, we should see price resuming to the upside from here and especially now to seek for the 36/37 zone from where price can resume its long term down trend. However, price should then not break the 32.60/32.50 level in which case we will have to turn back to an immediate bear scenario. Bottomline, we are holding our horses for now and await what will unfold during the coming week before taking any side.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
SOYBEAN OIL: DON'T MISS OUT! Analysis on chart ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Im currently doing trading, full time for a living. And would like you to share in my private funds managment. If you have capital of not less than $50 000USD. You can send me a mail to moorekapital@gmail.com or PM me for a discussion today! Otherwise, turn to NAKED TRADING ROOM- www.tradingview.com for crispy fresh calls THANKS FOR "like"
CBOT:ZL1!
by moorekapital
CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil: Price has traded up further than our liking and than what we were expecting. The overall picture remains a bear biased scenario for us with a possible further swing up to 33.50 now which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. We expect decline of price but with keeping the Fibonacci resistance level in mine and we expect accelerated volatility of the down move after the support level of 31.65 has been broken. We keep the picture and our chart unchanged for now.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil maintaining short Beanoil: Nothing really dramatic changed in our views on this chart although the move to the downside is less steep than we were expecting initially. Price basically made a sideways move during the week with a long tailed 'hammer' on the weekly chart (not displayed). A 'hammer' is an indication that the end of the move down is imminent so that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing that is interesting to keep an eye on is the development of the Bollinger Band during the coming week or 10 days and see how much contraction we will see developing there. We keep the bear scenario alive although we anticipate further move to the upside during the rest of this week or ten days to the 3175/3200 level from where we expect price to reverse back down and resume its decline. We have adjusted our chart accordingly.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil maintaining short playBeanoil: Price keeps following our preferred route that we have put on the chart about a month ago and there is little to add to that. We have drawn a descending price channel in which price seem to be moving to the downside. Our targets remains unchanged, trails keep being trailed down along with price and traders with a short position enjoy the ride. We will start looking at a possible reconsideration if and when price moves outside its channel on the upside and a break of the 32.50 level to the upside will invalidate our bear case.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT maintaining short playBeanoil: Price made a solid move up during an 'inside day' session. The advance in price was stronger than what we would have liked to see but the overall picture of our bias does not change. We anticipate lower prices but we would like to see the lows of May 23&25 at 31.42 to be broken after which the door will be open to an acceleration to the downside. First target is at 29.00 and second target is at 28.00 after which we will see whether and how far we want to trail the final target down. The stop for now is at 33.72 basis end-of-day. Positions will need to be rolled over soon (preferably this week) and traders need to be alert for slippage.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT again going shortBeanoil: Price made further advance during the past week and hit our stop. One could argue that our stop was too tight but, as a rule, taking a loss is a very healthy thing to do and the saying that 'the first loss is your best loss' makes a lot of sense if one thinks about it. So does the saying 'if you are not prepared to take a loss you will, sooner than later, be forced to take the mother of all losses' for that matter. The long-term pattern in the chart as such does not change at all and we maintain our bear bias until proven wrong which would be if price breaks 3385 to the upside. During the past weeks price has developed an ascending wedge which is a very reliable bode that the move up is coming to an end. In addition to that we see a 'bearish engulfing' pattern combined with a single key reversal in last Friday's candle. All these key elements combined plus our expectation that the move to the downside will be sizeable makes us entertain a new short play again at either 33.40 during Monday which is at the upper boundary of the ascending wedge or at a close of 32.60 or lower during Monday which would be a break of the lower boundary of same ascending wedge. Initial stop will be put at 34.15 which is more for reason of money management than anything else.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil still shortBeanoil: Price traded further into its resistance area of the 3200 level and actually traded higher than what we would have liked to see. For twice in a row (Thursday and Friday) price traded into our pre-set stop-loss zone but still closed below same stop levels and we are still in position. Even though the resistance zone is tested more severe than we initially anticipated the overall pattern does not change and we keep our bear bias until we are proven wrong by the market. Our reconsideration point is still at the 3385 mark and the stop is still at 3260 but that is more for money management reason than anything else. The last two sessions hunted the price up but momentum went lost and the chart shows two candles with long topping tales which is a sign that the bulls ran out of air. We are still on the edge and we will start feeling more comfortable with our bear bias after we see price trading decisively to the 3120 zone which we would like to see happening during the coming week. After that we will trail our stop to entry level and will start looking for a target.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoTBeanoil: Price has made its test back to the resistance level of 3200 which has set the floor for a solid bear move. Initial stops are at 3260 for this run and if price would break the 3385 level we will have to turn back to our drawing board and reconsider our bear bias again. In case that our initial stop gets hit we will look at a renewed short entry opportunity later on. Initial target has not been set yet as we first want to see price to get on its way so that we can trail the stop to entry level but we are in for a 10% move at least.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT N16Beanoil: Price initially followed our preferred routing quite precisely but suffered a pull-back during the last two sessions that was deeper than we would have liked to see. Our bias with price target remains intact although a decisive move further down to 31.50 would be a conclusive sign to us that we should reconsider our short term bull bias. Our longer term view on beanoil is bearish but for now we still keep our eye on the 36 target by the end of May and we have not changed the chart.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko