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ZL1! trade ideas

CBoT beanoil short play set-upA renewed set-up on the beanoil chart after our last set up earlier this week did not materialize as the selling trigger lacked. Today we see price making a so-called 'bearish engulfing' which is a reliable reversal pattern. Price kept its divergence with it MACD and RSI: higher highs in price (compared to it last high at close on December 4 at 32.35) but not charting higher highs on its MACD and RSI. Since March 3 price has started to trade within a steep channel upwards which was broken only today and, if no rally occurs towards today's close, price will close below the lower boundary line of same ascending channel. It is worth entertaining a short play here at the close or tomorrow's opening but only provided that price closes at/below 33.45 and with a very tight stop at 34.25 basis intra-day.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil possible short set up in the makingWe have a possible short set-up in the making here. The beanoil MAY16 chart is of 11am CDT so the session in Chicago has not ended yet. The candle could be a 'shooting star' in the making which, principally, is a bearish sign and it is a reliable bode that the end of the move up is imminent. More important, however, is that the chart is showing divergence between the development of price on one side and its RSI and MACD on the other side: price has made a new high yesterday whereas its RSI and MACD did not. This is a very strong sign that the market is overbought and needs correction. In addition comes the aforementioned 'shooting star' which adds to the reversal probability. Too early and too much of aggressive approach for this trader to enter a short play here and now already as we want to see a confirmation. We keep the gear in 'neutral' but will have a close look again during the session on Monday next. If and when we see a negative candle developing during Monday's session it would mean that an 'evening star' is in the making which is a reliable reversal pattern. This in combination with the divergence and the 'shooting star' legitimises a short play with a tight intra-day stop above the high of today.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
Soybean Oil - Push or Pull?Weekly: - Trend is a trend, until its end. Is the end getting closer? Trendline matches Kijun Sen and horizontal key level. Most important to watch is 32,05! - Heikin Ashi candle turns red, haDelta crosses down SMA3, the setup is rather bearish again. Question as always is the weekly close, and if Bears can push it down to a lower low later. Daily: - Price trades exactly at equilibrium! Kijun Sen and thin future Kumo stays at same level ard 31,35-31,50. - Heikin Ashi candle turns bullish, haDelta up. Chikou Span close to Price. Bears really need to make a push soon, or else they can quickly lose control and capitulate. In case Soybean Oil breaks above 32,05 and later above 32,50, then we wil see a trend break and reversal, a confirmed bullish Kumo breakout on the daily chart, with high probability tgt to 35, and lower probability tgt ard 37. I am watching it for a reversal long trade.
CBOT:ZL1!
by Kumowizard
6
Soybeans - Selling pressure eased this week, swing buy nowWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is still bearish, but weekly Kijun Sen dropped and got close to price candle. - Heiken Ashi candle this week has a smaller body with both upper and lower wicks, its body is within prev candle body. haDelta crosses back above SMA3, but both lines are still below zero level. This is a sign that the selling pressure could not accelerate further this weak and by next week we may see either more consolidation or a correction (move up) back above Kijun Sen. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, but turning back to neutral a bit again. On the daily chart we also see how selling pressure eased this week. The Kumo's Senkou lines are flat, not pointing down, so more downside seems less likely. Kijun is also flat and Tenkan turning up, so does Chikou Span, which losing its open space. Consolidation and further pullback is expected. - Four Heiken Ashi candles are green in a row, both haDelta and SMA3 are above zero line, the oscillator is up again - Further price increase up to Kijun and SenkouB (both ard 1007) is very likely, a real bullish reversal however can place only above the Kumo. May this happen at some point, we still need to wait 1-2 more weeks for that. Recommendation: Buy and hold small long. Increase and leverage up if you see a break above Kijun (future Senkou B or if you are more conservative when you see a break above actual current Kumo cloud.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Kumowizard
3
Soybean Oil - It can become a hot trade soon againSome exotic for today. I really like to look at products which has been consolidating for long time. Yesterday I published a post about wheat, corn and soybeans (see link below), where I showed you how soybeans has been moving sideaways in an appr. 5 %+ range. The case is same with Soybean Oil. It has been moving sideaways for 3 months now. Why do I think it is important? Let me show you a few things. Daily: - Obviously the Price action is totally neutral, it has been consolidating for more than three months now, as you see in a range between 31,40-33,40, except one squeeze and breakout attempt, which however was blocked then by the thick Kumo Cloud. - Flat Kijun Sen, flat Kumo, Chikou Span is swinging ard Price candles, very low ADX. -> all in all there is no trend. - What makes me think a break on upside has slightly bigger chance is the positive divergence in MACD and in Slow Stoch in forms of higher lows. Also despite low ADX, DMI is rather early bullish. These are all weak signals, put worth to watch. - Upper resistance is clearly at 33,40-33,50 at the horizontal line and the inner trendline. A sustained break above this level could bring a quick bullish move. Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, but Kijun Sen is catching down to price, and getting close in touch with the steeper trendline's level. - MACD is kind of bullish and here we also have a Slow Stoch cross with higher low. - DMI is close to cross bullish (ADX dropped as well), so probably the price decline for medium term can be over, and we may see some correction. - And look at the Price action itself! If you zoo out the chart, you can not find one more period, where the Price was so stable, stuck in such a thin range! Obviously we do not know which direction it will start the next move, but I am sure the move will be sharp and quick. If the break happens on the top side, the retracement tgt is ard 36,50. If it can not hold the 32 +/- level then bearish extension would hit it down to 26-27. p.s.: watch it close together with its big brother, the Soybeans.
CBOT:ZL1!
by Kumowizard
Educational Piece: How To Find Tops And Bottoms w/ NO IndicatorsA While back I did a post on EURUSD Showing probability of the big move down we’ve seen. Here is the Link: www.tradingview.com About 3/4 of the page down I posted another chart with support levels. I received a few questions where I could tell other traders were looking to buy at the first major support levels. I asked this Question: IF Price does start to Rally…How will you know if it’s a good time to buy? And How would you know if it’s a short lived rally giving you a good place to short at better price Levels. I went in to detail on what patterns to look for based on Institutional Order Flow. You can read my answers near the bottom of that page. I posted this chart for TWO Reasons: #1 it’s Soy Bean Oil so it’s easier to just observe theh chart without having a Biased Opinion since very few people on TradingView trade this instrument. #2 ***This chart shows perfectly two examples I discussed on a How to know it’s a good time to Buy, and the second example shows how you would know it’s a False Rally giving you a better Price to Add to Shorting the symbol. ***Draw the Major Support and Resistance levels I discussed and showed on a chart 3/4 of the way down on the link at the top of this page. ***This Chart looks VERY Similar to the EURUSD I posted in that link. *******One of the best Quotes I’ve ever heard that Dramatically impacted my Trading is this, “When your Looking at a Chart ask yourself this, What would have to Happen for the MOST Retail Traders to Get HURT”! When you get good at answering that question…And when you get good at recognizing Institutional Buying and Selling Accumulation, and Institutional Stop runs. You will be able to trade any chart with a HIGH Probability of Success…WITH NO Indicators!!!! Institutions MOVE Markets…PERIOD. By evaluating Institutional Price Action along with Major Support and Resistance levels. (Without a BIASED Opinion of what You Think Price Will Do)…You’ll be able to “Print Money” out of the market.
CBOT:ZL1!Education
by ChrisMoody
40