ZM1! trade ideas
ZMN20-ZMU20Another agresive bull spread which is currently with good setup for trade. Commercials have an extreme short positions, which means, there is not much space for further price's fall. Moreover there is a good seasonality ahead, although LTD (Last Trading Day) is 30.6. so we are quite close. In general soybean meal is a small contract, we do not risk much. I have 3 spreads myself. I am aiming with my 1.PT to -2.
Long the breakout above 293DISCLAIMER :
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Soybean Meal Futures has closed below 60 RSI
The RSI shown on the Soybean Meal Futures chart has closed below 60, and there was a large bear outside candle formation to complement the move down. Additionally, this is the first retracement within the trend.
Since the heaviest volumes are above the current price, I anticipate there will be a retracement into the untested supply zone and then trend continuation.
Based on the Renko bar chart (shown as a candlestick chart above), the price has yet to infiltrate the demand area on the chart.
A big jump maybe ???Soybean meal stayed in this range for very long time. Also except meal almost all ag futures rallied around 10% . Also the trend shows a jump from a double bottom... Anyway I expect a price range between 315 - 343 within 1 month....
Long on ZM1! (Soybean Meal Futures): My 5 Reasons to TradeHere's my idea to go long on ZM1!. This is a 4-hour chart.
First, I always need 4 independent reasons to take a trade. They are as follows ...
1. Location
- Is the price in the correct location? In general, I price must be in the bottom of a range for a long, and at the top of a range for a short.
2. Market Structure
- Is there a double bottom with a breakout? I need to see a 'W' like structure in price.
3. Momentum
- Is there a divergence in MACD? This is one sign that a reversal in trend is around the corner.
4. Volume
- This is paramount. I need to see a bullish trend in volume if I am going long, and vice versa for short positions.
And when I am trading commodities, I need a 5th reason - the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report. In short, I need to see signs that institutions (large speculators) are going long when I am thinking long and going short when I am thinking short.
So, do we have our 5 reasons for ZM1!? Let see ...
We have ...
1. Location: We are in a reload zome (between 0.618 and 0.786). In other words, we are near the bottom of a range
2. Market Structure: We see a double bottom with a breakout
3. Momentum: We have MACD divergence.
That's it. What are we missing in?
Volume: Let's wait until the volume make a 'W' on the other side of the red trendline.
CoT Report: Let's wait until we see a sign of large speculators (red line) loading up on long contracts. For this, I'd like to see further stair-stepping action.
Now, I only take trades where the minimum reward-to-risk ratio is 2:1. The 'W' gives us a nice framework for when to exit (stop loss) our trade. I am risking to the lower leg of the 'W'.
For our target profit, I just extend the R/R tool so 2:1 and see if that is a reasonable area to expect the price to go.
Is it reasonable, in this case?
2:1 profit takes us to :
- A cluster of support and resistance
- Middle of the Volume Profile
These are two areas are where price often settles too ... so we're good for our target :)
That's it. We have 3 of our 5 reasons. Let's wait for the other 2 to come in, and then it'd make sense to go long.
Soybean Meal ready to rumble?Actually, quite similar to the coffee chart previously published, in that the soybean meal has experienced deep correction down followed by a range where Bollinger Band width narrows. WASDE report tomorrow most definitely will provide impulse power that may propel price up into acceleration gap corridors. Tonight looks firm after today's weakness. Buying at the market works for me.
May Soybean Meal Bearish GartleyA possible bear gartley for May Soybean. Above the 20 day moving average. Next target R1 at 313.7
Long ZM at 310Entry: 310
Stop loss: 305
Target: 320
1/19: move stops to 311
ZM bounced at strong support/multiple bottoms
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CBOTTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 319.4
Stop Loss (SL) : 320.3
Take Profit (TP) : 317.6
Description
ZMH2019 formed Turtle Soup at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (319.4) and place stop after 0.618 level (320.3). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (317.6)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$0.10 = +-$ 10/std-contract
Commission fee = -$5.64/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.9 = -$90
Contract size to open = 30 standard contracts
EP to TP = $1.8 = +$180
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$169.2
Loss = -$2,700
Gain = +$5,400
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.88
January Soybean Meal Channel and Head and ShouldersMeal is setting up for a H&S drop. Neckline comes in at S1 at 304.3. If the bears can force it through the neckline and stay below S2 that would be next target at 298.6. Minimal drop would be last shoulder which would take us to just above S3 at 289.3. RSI isn't all that great for a drop, but we will see. There is also a contentious bull flag here so one or the other has to give. If upside produces itself we would be targeting outside of channel at R1 328.6
Buy Soybean Meal after a small pullbackAccording to Larry Williams if we make a higher low we can be buyers here - targets are 330-335
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES, 1D, CBOTTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 330.6
Stop Loss (SL) : 335.4
Take Profit (TP) : 311.3, 0
Description
ZM formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (330.6) and place stop after 0.618 level (335.4). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (311.3) and 0
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $150000
Risk Management (1%) : $1500
Position Sizing
$0.10 = +-$ 10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.82/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $4.8 = -$480/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 3 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $19.3 = +$1930 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0 = +$0 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$16.92
Loss = -$1440
Gain = +$5,790
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.97
