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10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2024)10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2024)10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2024)

10-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2024)

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ZNH2024 trade ideas

elliot wave 3-3 pattern ZN Hello Trader, The technical analysis using Elliott Wave theory, it seems a potential 3-3 wave structure in progress or nearing completion and possible implications for trading the XXXUSD instrument. As of now, if the 3-3 wave pattern is indeed unfolding, it suggests that the market is in a corrective phase, which could precede a more significant upward movement. As you monitor how the 3-3 wave structure plays out, keep an eye on market signals that could indicate a shift towards a bullish phase in XXXUSD. Proper analysis and sound risk management strategies will be key in capturing any potential trading opportunities. Lets see how it play out Trader Kuching 24
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by qedharis79
Currency Wars: Exploring BTC/Fiat Ripple Effects on Key Markets1. Introduction In today's interconnected financial markets, major fiat currencies like the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) play a critical role in influencing USD-denominated assets. The relative strength between these currencies often reflects underlying economic trends and risk sentiment, which ripple across key markets like Treasuries (ZN), Gold (GC), and Equities (ES). However, Bitcoin (BTC), a non-traditional digital asset, introduces an interesting divergence. Unlike fiat currencies, BTC's behavior during periods of significant market stress may reveal a unique relationship to USD movements. This article explores: The relative strength between the Euro and Yen. Correlations between fiat currencies, BTC, and USD-denominated markets. Whether BTC reacts similarly or differently to traditional currencies during market volatility. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to identify how shifts in currency strength influence assets like Treasuries while assessing BTC’s independence or alignment with fiat markets. 2. Relative Strength Between 6E and 6J To evaluate currency dynamics, we compute the relative strength of the Euro (6E) versus the Yen (6J) as a ratio. This ratio helps identify which currency is outperforming, providing insights into broader risk sentiment and market direction. Another way to think of this ratio would be to use the RY1! Ticker symbol which represents the Euro/Japanese Yen Futures contract. Correlation Heatmaps The correlation heatmaps below highlight relationships between: o Currencies: Euro (6E), Yen (6J), and Bitcoin (BTC). o USD-Denominated Markets: Treasuries (ZN), S&P 500 (ES), Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), and Corn (ZC). o Key Observations (Daily Timeframe): The 6J (Yen) shows a positive correlation with Treasuries (ZN), supporting its traditional role as a safe-haven currency. Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates mixed relationships across assets, showing signs of divergence compared to fiat currencies during specific conditions. o Key Observations (Weekly and Monthly Timeframes): Over longer timeframes, correlations between 6E and markets like Gold (GC) strengthen, while the Yen's (6J) correlation with Treasuries becomes more pronounced. BTC correlations remain unstable, suggesting Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional fiat currencies, particularly in stress periods. 3. BTC Divergence: Behavior During Significant Moves To assess BTC's behavior during stress periods, we identify significant moves (beyond a predefined threshold) in the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J). Using scatter plots, we plot BTC returns against these currency moves: BTC vs 6E (Euro): BTC returns show occasional alignment with Euro movements but also exhibit non-linear patterns. For instance, during sharp Euro declines, BTC has at times remained resilient, highlighting its decoupling from fiat. BTC vs 6J (Yen): BTC's reaction to Yen strength/weakness appears more random, lacking a clear pattern. This further underscores BTC’s independence from traditional fiat dynamics, even as Yen strength typically aligns with safe-haven asset flows. The scatter plots reveal that while fiat currencies like the Euro and Yen maintain consistent relationships with USD-denominated markets, Bitcoin exhibits periods of divergence, particularly during extreme stress events. 4. Focus on Treasury Futures (ZN) Treasury Futures (ZN) are among the most responsive assets to currency shifts due to their role as a safe-haven instrument during economic uncertainty. Treasury prices often rise when risk aversion drives investors to seek safer assets, particularly when fiat currencies like the Yen (6J) strengthen. 6E/6J Influence on ZN From the correlation heatmaps: The Yen (6J) maintains a positive correlation with ZN prices, particularly during periods of market stress. The Euro (6E) exhibits a moderate correlation, with fluctuations largely dependent on economic events affecting Eurozone stability. When relative strength shifts in favor of the Yen (6J) over the Euro (6E), Treasury Futures often attract increased demand, reflecting investor flight-to-safety dynamics. Forward-Looking Trade Idea Given the above insights, here’s a hypothetical trade idea focusing on 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN): Trade Direction: Long Treasury Futures to capitalize on potential safe-haven flows. Entry Price: 109’29 Target Price: 111’28 Stop Loss: 109’09 Potential for Reward: 126 ticks = $1,968.75 Potential for Risk: 40 ticks = $625 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.15:1 Tick Value: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625 Required margin: $2,000 per contract This trade setup anticipates ZN’s upward momentum if the Yen continues to outperform the Euro or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers demand for Treasuries. 5. Risk Management Importance Trading currency-driven assets like Treasury Futures or Bitcoin requires a disciplined approach to risk management due to their volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Key considerations include: a. Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss levels to limit downside exposure, especially when markets react sharply to currency moves or unexpected news. b. Position Sizing: Adjust position size to match market volatility. c. Monitor Relative Strength: Continuously track the 6E/6J ratio to identify shifts in currency strength that could signal changes in safe-haven flows or BTC behavior. d. Non-Correlated Strategies: Incorporate BTC into portfolios as a non-correlated asset, especially when fiat currencies exhibit linear correlations with traditional markets. By implementing proper risk management techniques, traders can navigate the ripple effects of currency moves on markets like Treasuries and Bitcoin. 6. Conclusion The relative strength between the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) provides critical insights into the broader market environment, particularly during periods of stress. As shown: Treasury Futures (ZN): Highly sensitive to Yen strength due to its safe-haven role. Bitcoin (BTC): Demonstrates unique divergence from fiat currencies, reinforcing its role as a non-traditional asset during volatility. By analyzing correlations and BTC’s reaction to currency moves, traders can better anticipate opportunities in USD-denominated markets and identify divergence points that signal market shifts. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
13
Turn Market Signals Into Profits: Master the Trend ReversalTurn Market Signals Into Profits: Master the Trend Reversal with Our Precision Indicators Struggling to spot precise trade opportunities? Here's a game-changing approach! The 10-Year T-Note Futures chart shows a strong reversal pattern, enhanced by our Beginner Entry Signals. The clear "Buy" signal aligns with an Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI), signaling a potential upward trend. What makes this analysis powerful? The AVFI and crossover system help identify trend momentum and high-probability entry points. By combining historical price action and volume insights, our indicators deliver clear, actionable signals even in volatile markets. The "Buy" signal suggests growing demand at a key support level, giving you a head start on the next wave. Imagine never second-guessing your trades again! Our tools don't just predict—they guide you through market movements with precision. Whether you're new to trading or an experienced investor, these indicators empower you to capitalize on every opportunity. Don't miss out! Equip yourself with the Beginner Entry Signals Package and Adaptive VFI, designed to simplify decision-making. Start turning insights into profits today!
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by TradeTrendsPro
Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Ending 5 Waves Elliott Wave ImpulseShort Term Elliott Wave View in Ten Year Notes (ZN) shows that decline from 9.11.2024 high is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9.11.2024 high, wave 1 ended at 114’07 and wave 2 ended at 115 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The Notes extended lower in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 114’07 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 114’16. The Notes then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 112’13 and wave ((iv)) ended at 112’24. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 111’22 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Wave 4 bounce unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at 112’11. Wave ((b)) pullback ended at 111’23 and wave ((c)) higher ended at 112’22. This completed wave 4 in higher degree. The Notes has turned lower again in wave 5. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 111’29 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 112’09. Expect the Notes to extend lower to end wave ((iii)), then it should bounce in wave ((iv)) before turning lower again. As far as pivot at 112’22 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Buy Signal on 10 Years T-NoteCheck out the exciting buying opportunity on the 10 Years T-Note, currently trading at 112.00. Technical analysis indicates a potential upward trend, leveraging the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages for 161 and 200 periods as key tools. Trade Points: Entry Point: 112.00 Stop Loss: 111.50 Profit Target: 113.50 Current market analysis shows good stability, reinforcing the chances of success for this trade. Stay tuned for more insights and investment ideas!
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by tickmill9
Armageddon after the election, huh?Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up. The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar. Such synchronicity has historically led to powerful corrections, and something tells me that it will not be the Dollar. Now, I ain't saying we should all go out and start selling stocks like never before. But what I am sayin' is that maybe, just maybe, we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Maybe the market's got some more room to run, and maybe we should be lookin' for opportunities to get in on the action. So, yeah, the option sentiment's looking a little bearish, but that don't mean we should all be running for the hills just yet. Let's keep our cool, do our research, and see what the market's got in store for us.
CBOT:ZNZ2024
by ClashChartsTeam
Buying idea ZN1! with stop at 114.05US 10 year futures looking to make another move after brief pull back. given the positive FED signals and overall market sentiment this can turn and start moving up again. DISCLAIMER : The content and materials featured are for your information and education only and are not attended to address your particular personal requirements. The information does not constitute financial advice or recommendation and should not be considered as such.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by Gihanhemachandra
Intraday Elliott Wave Suggests Ten Year Notes (ZN) Entering InflShort Term Elliott Wave view on Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 8.9.2024 low is about to complete as 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.9.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 114’02 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 112’25. The Notes then extended higher in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as another 5 waves. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 114’01 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 113’05. The Notes extended higher in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 113’3 and dips in wave ii ended at 113’06. The Notes extended higher in wave iii towards 115 and pullback in wave iv ended at 114’1. Final leg wave v ended at 115’1 which completed wave (iii) in higher degree. Dips in wave (iv) ended at 114’16 and wave (v) higher ended at 115’13 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) also has ended at 114’2 and the Notes has turned higher. Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 115’04. Expect wave (ii) pullback to stay above 114’2, and more importantly above 112’25 for further upside. As far as pivot at 112’25 low is intact, we can still see a bit more upside in the 10 Year Notes before it completes 5 waves rally from 8.9.2024. The cycle however is mature and we can expect an end and a bigger pullback soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Advances Camarilla Concepts (2)Advanced Camarilla Concepts: Mastering Two-Period Relationships In the sophisticated realm of Camarilla pivot trading, understanding two-period relationships is crucial for discerning the market's directional bias and anticipating movements in upcoming sessions. This analytical approach focuses on the third layer (S3 and R3) of the Camarilla pivots, similar to Pivot Width Analysis, but delves deeper into nuanced market signals across seven distinct types of relationships. Exploring the Seven Two-Period Relationships Higher Value (Bullish Signal): This occurs when the current period’s S3 is above the previous period’s R3, suggesting a robust bullish outlook. This scenario is a strong buy signal on pullbacks to the current period's S3. Key to this analysis is: Acceptance: Price opens above S3 and pulls back to it, affirming bullish continuation. Rejection: Price opens below S3, turning it into resistance, with potential declines anticipated. Lower Value (Bearish Signal): Defined by the current period's R3 being below the previous period's S3, indicating bearish conditions. This setup suggests selling on rallies to R3. Observations include: Acceptance: Price opens below R3 and ascends to it, confirming the bearish trend. Rejection: Price opens above R3, using it as support, which may signal rising prices. Overlapping Higher Value: A modestly bullish sign indicating a possible slowdown in the uptrend, suggesting that the market might enter a distribution phase leading to range-bound conditions. Both acceptance and rejection criteria apply, similar to the 'Higher Value' scenario. Overlapping Lower Value: A slightly bearish signal hinting at a weakening downtrend, potentially leading to accumulation and subsequent range-bound activity. Like its bullish counterpart, acceptance and rejection are key to understanding this signal. Unchanged Value: Represents neutrality, where the current period's S3 and R3 align exactly with the previous period's levels. Markets may be in a phase of accumulation or distribution, and traders should watch for breakout signals closely. Outside Value: Another neutral indicator where the current period’s S3 and R3 completely encompass the previous period’s levels, suggesting a quiet, range-bound market environment. Inside Value: Indicates that a breakout is imminent, as the current period’s S3 and R3 are entirely contained within the previous period’s levels. This scenario offers opportunities for low-risk and high-reward trades. Strategic Implications and Trading Strategy Utilizing these two-period Camarilla relationships equips traders with a refined lens for market analysis, enabling them to tailor their strategies to the evolving market context. Whether it's leveraging bullish signals for robust buying opportunities or identifying bearish setups for timely exits, understanding these nuanced relationships enhances strategic execution. By integrating these advanced Camarilla concepts into your trading toolbox, you can significantly enhance your ability to navigate through volatile markets with precision and confidence. Stay tuned for further insights as we continue to explore the depths of Camarilla pivot trading and its application in real-world scenarios. This exploration not only broadens your understanding but also sharpens your trading skills in anticipating and reacting to market dynamics.
CBOT:ZNZ2024Education
by msrozba
Advanced Camarilla Concepts (1)Exploring Advanced Camarilla Concepts: The Strategic Role of Pivot Width In the realm of technical analysis, understanding the nuances of pivot points, particularly within the Camarilla framework, can significantly enhance a trader's ability to forecast and capitalize on market movements. A key aspect often overlooked is the analysis of pivot width, especially the width between the third layers, S3 and R3, which offers crucial insights into impending market dynamics. Pivot Width Analysis: Decoding Market Behavior Pivot width, the distance between significant Camarilla support (S3) and resistance (R3) levels, is a powerful indicator of potential market behavior. The interpretation of pivot width can be categorized into two distinct scenarios: Abnormally Wide Pivot Widths: When the distance between S3 and R3 is unusually large, it often indicates that the market might enter a period of trading range activity. In such scenarios, the market is less likely to exhibit strong directional momentum, and instead, traders might experience extended periods of consolidation. This setup requires strategies that capitalize on range-bound trading techniques, where buying at support and selling at resistance can be particularly effective. Abnormally Narrow Pivot Widths: Conversely, a tighter than usual gap between these pivot points typically signals the potential for breakout and trending activities. Narrow pivot widths suggest that the market is coiling, much like a spring, ready to release significant energy that could lead to strong directional moves. Traders should prepare for breakout strategies during these conditions, anticipating substantial moves away from the pivot line once a breakout occurs. Strategic Application in Trading Understanding and applying pivot width analysis within the Camarilla framework allows traders to adapt their strategies based on anticipated market conditions. By aligning trading approaches with pivot width signals, traders can enhance their tactical execution and improve the probability of success in varying market environments. For Wide Pivots: Implement range-bound strategies, focusing on capturing the oscillations between the defined support and resistance levels. For Narrow Pivots: Prepare for potential breakouts by setting entry points near the anticipated breakout levels, with appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Conclusion: Enhancing Trading Acumen with Pivot Width Analysis The study of pivot width in the context of Camarilla pivots offers a sophisticated tool for traders aiming to refine their market analysis and execution strategies. By paying close attention to these details, traders can better prepare for the market's next moves, whether they point to a continuation of the range or the start of a new trend. Stay tuned for further insights into the application of Camarilla pivots in trading, as we continue to explore deeper layers of this powerful analytical tool. This exploration not only enriches your trading toolkit but also enhances your ability to navigate through complex market landscapes.
CBOT:ZNZ2024Education
by msrozba