ZN1! trade ideas
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / An important ChartThe importance of ZN as an Instrument cannot be overstated.
It has been extremely technical and Reliable in assisting us in
forecasting Rate Mid Curve and provided the ROC's for TNX.
Today's MAcro Data begins with the CPI @ 8:30 AM EST using
the new Base Effect from the BLS.
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CPI is projected to be 4%.
Food prices have already increased substantially into 2022
as we indicated Mid-Q4 2021 - Pordiucer were going to begin
passing along increases at an average rate of 20-23%.
Energy continues to Rise as do Commodities, on balance, across
the Board.
M2 continues to move higher, as does the Fed's Balance Sheet.
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The reaction to the CPI this morning will provide direction for the
Indexes the balance of the week.
Pricing Power is being passed along to end-users (consumers) at
a time when the Federal Reserve is indicating they are about to begin
an aggressive reduction in Liquidity and an accelerated pace of
increases to the Fed Funds Rate.
We have seen back to back ALGO driven increases in the ES / NQ / YM
and indicated 10 Yr Yields would pullback ~ 1.81% (1.808 was close
enough).
2021/2022 measured move is now .998 to 1.808 - a near doubling of
the Mid Curve.
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The Bond "safety" Trade wasn't entirely wrong until the Curve
began to work its magic. We indicated in July Rates would begin
rising again into the end of 2021.
Where the Bond Buters lost sight of the Safety Trade was quite
simple - Convention holds only when the Yield Curve is steepening.
As YCC gave way to a FED backstop where the recycling ballooned
the Fed's Balance Sheet and Auction after failed Auctions began to
appear beginning at the long end of the Curve.
My Thesis proved 100% correct, then as now.
We anticipate a reaction to Mid Curve on today's ReCalc.
Safe Trading.
10 Yr T Note Major Downside Target In this update we review the recent price action in the US 10Yr T-Note and identify the next high probability trade location and target
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
3 JANUARY 2022 10 YEAR T-NOTE DAILY BIAS ANALYSISSummary :
Sideways market
Confluence :
-10&20 EMA (DAILY) = BEARISH
-BEARISH SMS/FAILURE SWING
- 1D ICT BEARISH FRESH ORDER BLOCK
- MOST RECENT LIQUIDITY RUN ON MID TERM SWING HIGH (DAILY)
Conclusion :
-Bias = Bearish possible bullish even testing the 1D FRESH BEARISH OB , Bullish for Dollar, Bearish for Major Foreign Currencies (EUR,GBP, etc.)
-Target = EQL
-Probability = LOW, still very biased because it's still the first day in 2022, t-note still delayed, market still have to create a setup to go somewhere. Well it's safer to have a bias about the market condition. and trade later when the market unfold a high probability setup.
-Suggestions = Find another confluence, in the dollar index & the pairs that you want to trade, Higher Time Frame Or Lower, wait till Tuesday/Wednesday.
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / Monthly @ 20 Yrs / The Abyss of DEBTIt is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic
mind poisoning down.
That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times. Polluting the incoming tides.
Friedman could not have imagined how awry his QT has been turned on its collective head.
Gold Bugs to this day, quote this - scores of times every single day. "Were Gold Priced in DEBT
it would be $250,000+"
No one cares, least of all Central Banks who Demonetized it but made it legal to own under Nixon.
You all swap fungibles for... Silver? A Weimar home? Taco Bell?
Good luck, it's a Tier 1 asset on the Books of Central Banks for a reason and trades at a varying rate as it always has.
Q of M clearly isn't tied to it and it's not chasing away Good Money for Bad any longer... those storied days passed very
long ago.
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Money loses its purchasing power parity in a number of ways - not simply through more money chasing goods and services,
this is merely one-sided - "ceteris para bis" Jedi Mind Fuck at its finest.
Causation is always assumed from the money supply increase to price rises...a very basic truth, but ONLY a precondition
and not a fate acompli.
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The Fundamental causes of a general price inflation are still supply-side factors - for example, rises in wages or prices of factor input costs - which we see in the PMI data - to date not fully passed onto Consumes due to Supply-Side Shocks ) or demand-side ones - high demand causing price increases in markets.
The fatal flaw is QMT assumes an exogenous money world and the wrong direction of causality.
The contraction in Broad Money with a Credit Money System aka Bank Money is destroyed as people move to acquire CASH money
or what is perceived to be a CASH Equivalent.
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Simply Put: Aged Theory is flawed beyond. Supply Side Cocktails and the Ingredients of the CREDIT MONEY Elixirs are quite
different than in 1963 Uncle Milty.
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Speaking of Credit (DEBT MONEY if you can al it that) the BOE recently raised rates.
China, faced with new lockdowns surrounding the - Credit Squeeze (TY to Shevchenko for the prod to dig in and determine WTF) .
Turns out 6 property developers including the "Grande" have deferred wages the CCP now says must be paid by the start of the
Lunar New Year, oh and... yer gonna need to pay $21.37 Billion in Bonds or default.
Sounds bad huh? Not remotely...
Back wages amount to $174.38 Billion, can't pay 'em?
Lock 'em down, which is precisely what the CCP is setting up to avoid immense Social upheaval.
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Are we seeing a trend appear?
We are indeed. Debt Defaults have been propped by Governments to stave off tragic Social disruptions.
Hardly a footstep in the direction of Trust for Journey of 1,000 miles to default.
S'ok China, yer not alone, we proudly stand with you, although we've been at tit longer on this turn, so we're
just better at wallpapering over it with Currency Seniorage.
Yaun / Renminbi - only one works inside and one outside.
Hmmm...
That could not possibly happen here in the US of A, could it?
Naw.
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When you destroy the Moneyness of Money with it goes all attendant prior theory as well as the very thing used to bring
Money into Circulation @ Tier One - The BOND MARKETS.
Fractional Reserve Banking merely extends it to obscene levels of Leverage and DEBT which are far beyond repayment.
Toss in the 6% Vig the FED takes for this privilege and after a hundred or so years, they end up owning everything.
They are, after all, the lender of last resort, the DTC merely the record keeper for when the payments halt and DEBT
becomes unserviceable.
What are your opportunity costs to Debt?
What do you value?
Forget Price it's no longer a metric for the sane, merely a distended and starved stomach.
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Moral:
When Risks are ignored, they are mispriced...
QuantumLogicTarding - Secret Magic Hidden LineSome retail trader told me this was a secret magic hidden line and was bearish
In fact it's a median line
And there's bullish divergence
And price is about to reverse off it
Lol
G.R.I. Dec '21
ZN ANALYSIShello traders, i prospect zn it's going to see a bearish trend, taregets and all things on chart .
thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow me for more market analysis and good buy opportunities.
Bonds Gain as Stocks Sell OffBonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical level at 131'12. This is a relative high for December which will be difficult to break as we enter the holiday week for Christmas next week. We should have support from below at 130'26 and 130'19.
The Bond Marekt Awaits Inflation DataBonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become oversold and that 130'00 is a floor for now. If we see a relief rally, watch 130'07 or 130'19 for a target. If we continue to decline and break 130'00 then 129'26 is the next target. ZN is likely not to make any significant moves until CPI data comes out this morning.
ZN ANALYSIS ( BUY OR SELL )Hello friends.
Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button(If you liked).Thank you!
ZN started a new up trend and made correction on 0.50% FIBO SO IT IS BUY SIGNAL
WE HAVE ON THE CHART ABCD harmonic pattern also give a BUY SIGNAL
ALSO MBK DIRECTION INDICATOR GIVE A BUY SIGNAL
TARGET = 0.61 % FIBO
rofessional traders are taking profits on ZN
ZN - 10 Year NoteAfter the Longest Bond Bull is recorded history.
Yeah, naw.
$33 Trillion in Ponzi now.
2022 is going to be a brutal year for the Greatest bubble ever.
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The ending is very clear.
Two high probability paths that the graph may follow-We have a strong bearish trend , blue trendlines (blue channel) are strong support and resistance , yellow trendline weaker than blue trendlines , so it plays the role of support and resistance depends from the position of the graph, the blue area is also a solid support.
1- In case the chart breaks the blue support zone , it is quite possible that the chart will follow the blue trend lines (blue channel) going down.
2 - in case the chart breaks the yellow trendline, it is most likely that it will retest it or go up until it hits the blue trendline and goes down again following the blue trendlines (channel blue). Wait for confirmation.
-Nous avons une forte tendance baissière, les lignes de tendance bleues (canal bleu) sont un support et des résistances forts, la ligne de tendance jaune plus faible que les lignes de tendance bleues, elle joue donc le rôle de support et une résistance dépend de la position du graphique, le la zone bleue est également un support solide.
1- dans le cas où le graphique romprait la zone de support bleue, il est fort possible que le graphique suive les lignes de tendance bleues (canal bleu) en descendant.
2 - dans le cas où le graphique casse la ligne de tendance jaune, il est fort probable qu'il la reteste ou monte jusqu'à ce qu'il touche la ligne de tendance bleue et redescende en suivant les lignes de tendance bleues (canal bleu). Attendre la confirmation.
Futures Levels | Santa Rally - Naughty or Nice? (MES, MNQ, M2K)Let's take a look at potential key levels for the week, most notably the session lows from Friday. Will a Santa Rally begin to take hold, or is there more naughty action for the bulls?
This weekend the crypto markets experienced a 15-30% decline, mostly looking like another scene from the movie "Horror For Over-Leveraged Longs."
Given that backdrop, and the aggressive selling on Friday, I'd think the expectation would have been for a weak open for the futures stock indices. But so far, it's looking like the open following the prior Black Friday sell-off, and most markets are a tad green. Still, it's early, still.
Stay Green & Trade Like You Mean It!
Bonds Consolidate, Breakout Soon??Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment due to the Omicron strain could give ZN a lift, though it appears this may be priced in by now. We will see continued support from the upper and lower bounds of the range. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit so we expect a breakout either way potentially soon.
ZN futures LONG ZN has just brook a resistance with volume that looks quite large according to what's before it, buy market
your TP is exactly where i put it
your SL is the break of the 369 HMA
