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10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures10 Year T-Note Futures

10 Year T-Note Futures

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ZN1! trade ideas

The most important chart ahead of tomorrow Tomorrow we will have a lot of information and data given to the market. Everything from the QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) from the Treasury to know what the allocation (or mix) of supply will be for the market between bills/notes/bonds. Then we will have private jobs data from the ADP. Following that we will have the ECI (employment Cost Index), then a few hours later we will hear from the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell and the FOMC.  In the meantime, the 10yr notes market looks poised to rally in a "bull flag pattern" setup which does suggest a continuation of note market strength and ultimately US Dollar weakness. However, a break of the 38% retracement at 110'09' would suggest otherwise and in that case we could see the US Dollar really take off to the upside as the bond market nullifies the pattern and looks to correct further below 109'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
10Y Treasury Bond Is Looking For A Bigger RecoveryTreasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside can be coming within a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally, where first leg (A) can be still in progress or maybe already completed as an impulse. Support on subwave 4 or wave (B) dips are at 110-111.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by ew-forecast
ZN1! / $TLT Short Idea UpdateUpdating Jan 2 post after jobless claims Surprised we saw such a big move after claims Highlights extreme market positioning for cuts this year Higher crude supports higher rates move. position hedges middle east volatility NFP tmrw is wildcard Remember NFP is wildly volatile Prefer buying Feb puts as defined risk trade ZN currently at technical support and rates at big 4% resistance Look to fade bounce 5ema serving as resistance on various time frames
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by hodgson42k
T-Notes rally Looking for T-Notes to continue the rally in coming months: It looks like it ended a 5 waves pattern There is a divergence on the MACD between wave 3 and 5 Their is the 10 year S2 at 105 and an untested demand zone Historical number of shorts on the T-Notes ( COT: Reportable Non-Commercial Net Positions (Futures Only)) Lower inflation and potential economic effects of such a rapid increase in rates should make rates go down December is usually the worst month of the year for treasuries but 2024 should be a good year for bonds.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by John_8-58
Has the bond market bottomed?The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?" So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields back towards 5%. Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10yr pressured since spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate. We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given!
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytixPipczar