Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
