ZN1! trade ideas
Bonds Break SupportBonds have edged lower, breaking through support at 119'23. We have fallen to suport at 119'01, currently hugging this level, but finding good support confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slipped a little, confirming the selloff, but has since appeared to level off. If we are able to pivot here, then 119'23 and 120'14 are the next targets to the upside. Watch for the vacuum zone below to 118'04.
Employment Data Hammers BondsBonds crept up but are facing resistance. After ZN tested highs at 121'28, and retraced, it started to establish value between 119'23 and 121'00. The latter has provided prohibitive resistance, as we have discussed this week, and we have seen a rejection, continuing the sideways correction. We saw a wick down to 119'23, where we found support, at first, but we subsequently broke through to the vacuum zone below. This follows Non Farm Payrolls coming in at a surprise beat, with unemployment at 3.5%. Expect support at 119'01.
Did the bond market fail?Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the notes, also dropped back below the inverted head and shoulder pattern neckline after a rejection of the 50% retracement. This false upside breakout could leave bulls holding the bag. The risk (now) is that bonds continue to slide back to the 50dma and yields continue to rally. This could affect the USDJPY as that pair has been very sensitive to the move in 10yr yields.
Bonds Break OutBonds have lifted, breaking out of the narrow range held for the past three days. We broke the upper bound at 120'14, and hit our next target exactly at 121'00, as predicted. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI suggesting that we are facing resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up, suggesting genuine momentum may be back. If so, the next target is 121'28. If we retrace, we should have strong support from 120'14 and 119'23.
inverse head and shoulderinverse head and shoulder, neck line to be breached, awaiting catalyst. Will it be seen as a risk on or risk off play though? hoigher bonds = lower rates. When bonds got crushed this first half of year it killed stocks. These 2 usually trade inverse however how they are more correlated. financial landscape changing?
Potential Bearish ContinuationTitle: 10-YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Continuation
Type : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 118'06'0
Pivot: 117'18'5
Support : 116'14'0
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price recently breaking the ascending trend channel and moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 117'18'5 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 116'14'0 at the swing low in line with the 100% fibnoacci projection. However, we will wait for price to break the support structure at the pivot for downside confirmation before playing this move.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 118'06'0 at the pullback resistance.
Fundamentals: US indexes moved moderately higher with better-than-expected US economic reports. Hence, we have a bullish view on the 10-year t-note futures.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN) Looking to Extend LowerShort term View in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that rally to 120’16 ended wave ((4)). Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of ((4)) ended at 120’04 and dips in wave B of ((4)) ended at 118’23. Final leg higher wave C ended at 120’16 which completed wave ((4)). Wave ((5)) lower is currently in progress with internal subdivision as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Notes still needs to break below previous wave ((3)) low on 6/15/2022 at 114’07 to rule out a double correction in wave ((4))
Down from wave ((4)), wave 1 ended at 117’18 and rally in wave 2 ended at 119’06. Internal of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at 119’03 and wave ((b)) ended at 117’24. Final leg wave ((c)) ended at 119’06 which completed wave 2. Wave 3 lower is currently in progress and a break below wave 1 at 117’18 should better confirm the extension lower. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 117’28 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 119. Near term, as far as pivot at 120’17 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.