ZSX2023 trade ideas
Soybeans: Running Out Of SteamSoybeans seem to be a laggard in the aggriculture space recently and it appears as though now could be an ideal short. This sequence may send bonds higher on inflation easing as well. Equities are the real question and whether or not they accept the inflation easing as a bullish catalyst or if this part of a broader deflationary wave. In either scenario, it would seem as though agriculture products face the brunt of it. Good luck traders.
Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment.
The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold?
China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances?
Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
Soybeans (ZB1!) is Now Net Short on Regression BreakSoybean is 2 days from the contract roll, however there is 1.6% positive roll short.
This maybe worth considering.
Obvious Long on Soybeans Soybeans have been consolidating for some time between the yellow and red trend lines after finding support just above the 1500 week ma. Corn has led the market with downward action and now leads it with upward trajectory. Soy's have finally broken out of the RSI downtrend they've been in for almost 4 years. It seems obvious that Soybeans will follow corn and move to the green line at the very least. The stochastic RSI on the monthly has had a confirmed cross up signaling bu8llish momentum in the next several months. For reference corn had a confirmed cross up last fall. The price I'm expecting is 12.5 a 15-17% gain from todays prices. If corn can keep moving higher the next target for soybeans is 14ish. I will start booking my soybeans for the 2025 season if we can get a 10-15% gain from here.
I'm a farmer from Canada and have been studying charts for about 8 years now. i started implementing my TA into commodity futures a few years ago.
Thanks for reading
New beginning The price has been moving below the daily SMA200 for a year and a half.
All previous attempts to rise above, highlighted by the rectangles, have failed.
In recent weeks, the price has completed a double bottom with a neckline at $1070.
A close above this level confirms the double bottom pattern and positions the price above the 200 average, starting the new bullish cycle.
Beans looking to drop hard, after all... Beans have been looking weak lately, and all this current and near future trade war fundamentals and uncertainty aren't going to help at all. Volatility is likely to go up this week across a lot of markets, and the ag commodities will certainly be part of that, with emotional fears from the last market crashing during the last Trump term. Beans especially didn't fair well during that time, and the corn-to-bean ratio was out of wack to where us farmers didn't want to plant beans period. We all thought (and were told) they might go to $7 or less! All while corn was poor, but much more palatable with the breakevens. Farmers, as a rule, certainly prefer to plant corn over beans anyway, if they live where they can choose as such.
But back to the bean chart, I've been thinking there was a decent enough chance we could chop around in here and bounce off of any short term weakness and key support, to make new highs for the move. A lot of guys were looking to target the high 10s and even around $11, before expecting a notable correction. Well, unfortunately, I think we've already recently peaked and are more likely to now keep correcting down, potentially quite violently.
On Friday, the 20 day EMA gave us bounce off support, but if we get a confirmation close Monday below that (likely), my opinion is we confirm we're in a larger scale wave 3 down already, and should eventually target the 9.47 and likely even lower ultimately, before we bottom in February or March, before spring seasonality and US planting weather premium allows for us to rise again.
Longterm, for this summer and beyond into 2026, I am quite bullish grains and ultimately, expect to see new all time highs, but it's not gonna be this year. Mostly due to the likelihood of a major cycle drought of our lifetime, which could happen this year but not truly affect the supply issue drastically until new crop turns into "old crop".
Decision time for beansGuess I will try my hand at this.
Bear with me as I'm still learning.
March Beans had a beautiful run up completing all five waves of an elliot pattern. Now it seems we are in the corrective C pattern. Question is does it go farther down continuing wave C or do we reverse here.
There appears to be a potential bull flag on the 4hr. If we continue to hold the bottom trendline I'd expect a breakout and a continuation upwards.
A break and close above the upper downward trendline I will enter long and target a zone between 10.70 and 10.80
A break and close below the bottom downward trendline I will go short and target a zone between 10.25 and 10.18
Grain Markets Showing StrengthMarch Soybeans have had a great start to the year after seeing a bottom after basically a whole year of falling prices in 2024. In January of 2024 just starting out the new year, prices fell below the 200-day moving average and have not been able to trade above that mark with conviction since. Since the bottom in mid December, prices have climbed back up toward this 200-day moving average and are now re-testing those levels. Significant market drivers could be potential tariffs, volatile climate in South America, and from the prospective planting report that is released in March.
Looking historically at grain reports shows traders that March offers great volatility as there is both the Prospective Planting report and a WASDE report that can drive the price one way or another. With January offering great volatility historically offering 3 different reports regarding the grains, March gives traders the next highest range driving interest in the grain products, and with Micro grain contracts being released, traders have their choice of size. With the standard Corn, Soybean and Wheat contracts being sized at 5,000 bushels per contract, the micro contracts come in at 1/10th the size at 500 bushels per contract, which would have a lower barrier to entry and give a different level of scalability to traders.
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**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
What If I Told You... Soybeans Are Ripe for a Short? | COT StratFollow Me Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soybeans Market Setup for Shorts
What if I told you... the soybean market is on the verge of a paradigm shift? That the signals are all around you, hidden in plain sight, waiting for those who can read the code. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data is flashing red, and the truth is undeniable: the smart money is preparing for a downturn.
Take the red pill, and let’s decode why the path of least resistance points down.
The COT Index: A Matrix of Sell Signals
The COT Index is the Oracle, revealing the intentions of the market’s architects. Commercial traders – the ones who truly understand the construct – have loaded up on shorts at levels even more bearish than May. And they’re doing it at lower prices.
This isn’t just resistance to the rally. It’s a calculated move. A whisper in the system that the rally is but an illusion, built on a fragile code.
Overvalued in the Grand Simulation
When you step back and compare soybeans to the benchmarks of reality – gold, Treasuries, and the almighty DXY – their overvaluation becomes clear. The system’s balance demands equilibrium, and soybeans are poised to correct.
Sentiment: The False Prophet
The Advisor Sentiment Index reveals an uncomfortable truth: the herd is ecstatic. But as you’ve learned, the crowd rarely escapes the Matrix unscathed. Bullish sentiment at these extremes is a trap, and the smart money is already fading this illusion of strength.
Spread Divergence: Cracks in the Code
The spread divergence between the front-month and the next-month contracts is a glitch in the system. Short-term excitement isn’t aligning with the longer-term structure. When spreads diverge like this, it’s a signal: the construct is destabilizing.
Distribution: The Hidden Hand
The POIV (Price-Open Interest Volume) divergence reveals a pattern of distribution. The architects of the market are selling into the rally, while the unwitting masses continue to buy. The code doesn’t lie. This is the calm before the storm.
The Technical Trinity: %R, Stochastic, and Oscillator
Three powerful indicators align, pointing to an impending shift:
%R Indicator: Overbought and ready to turn.
Stochastic Oscillator: Rolling over, signaling exhaustion.
Ultimate Oscillator: Confirming the downward momentum.
Combine this with the down-sloping 52-day SMA, and the dominant trend reveals itself: the Matrix is designed to move lower.
Patience: The Key to the System
This isn’t a call to blindly short. No one escapes the system without discipline. Wait for the daily chart to confirm the trend change. Only then can you move with precision, ensuring that every move aligns with the code.
The Choice Is Yours
The soybean market is more than what it seems. The smart money, the sentiment extremes, the divergences – they all point to a single truth: this rally is an illusion. But as always, the choice is yours.
Will you take the blue pill and believe what you want to believe? Or take the red pill, follow me, and see how deep the COT hole really goes? The trend is your ally – until it isn’t. And this one is collapsing before your eyes.
Stay tuned, stay sharp, and remember: the Matrix rewards those who see beyond the veil.
Acknowledgment
The strategies and concepts taught in this class draw significant inspiration from the works and teachings of Larry Williams, a pioneer in trading and market analysis. His groundbreaking research and methodologies have shaped the foundation of modern trading education.
While this class incorporates Larry Williams’ principles, the content has been adapted and presented to reflect my own understanding and application of these ideas. Full credit is given to Larry Williams for his original contributions to the field of trading.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.
Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
Soybeans: Bullish Butterfly Pattern | What Traders Should ExpectCBOT:ZS1!
Soybeans: A Bullish Butterfly Pattern
Soybeans have recently completed a bullish butterfly pattern at $1018. This pattern suggests an expected price target of $1268, supported by strong bullish divergence signals.
Monitoring the Support Levels
We should closely monitor the support structure around $947. If this level holds, the bullish pattern remains intact. However, if the price breaks below this support, the pattern could shift into a bullish crab pattern, potentially targeting $810 at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
What Does This Mean for Traders?
Bullish Sentiment: The bullish butterfly pattern presents an opportunity for long positions with a target of $1268.
Risk Management: Be prepared with stop-loss orders, as the reversal pattern could fail, and the market might continue in the downtrend.
Support Levels: Watch the $947 support level closely. A break could indicate a shift in market direction.
Soybeans are currently in a bullish setup, with the potential for a price rise to $1268. However, stay alert to the $947 support level, as a break could signal a continuation of the downtrend towards $810.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
Soybean Swing trade soybean. Soybean is in a discount range & for now I'm only targeting a pullback to eq price, but long term I'm much more bullish
Long Bias on ZS1!I have a long bias side to play in H4 or Day time frame by analysis from Weekly time frame that price is now far from Average Price and in weekly time frame have some rejection signal too. Always aware on risk management, understanding technical tools and limitation of its.
Soybean : A close up of a probable bottomFollowing up on the previous posting where confluences in technical support suggest a high probable bottoming in the longer term. This shorter term display suggests a possible 5 wave sequence up which may be the mother of another bull trend in the making. We can comfortably qualify our risk level here against the potential reward if this is the start of a bull phase.
Extended in short term. ShortAnalysis: Price has begun trading in consolidation. Entry can be considered if trading within the range.
Long opportunity: Reversal confirmation at 1.1008 support region towards 1.11007 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Harvesting profits - BULLISH on SOYBEAN!!!! Long NOWIt doesn´t get easier. Lets make money together!!!
Long at market price.
Stop at previous lows.
Target previous highs.
Soybean $zs - PATIENCE PAYS OFF!!MID TERM structure has flipped bullish.
Patiently waiting for $970’s for A LONG re-entry.
buyBuy at a fair price
how???
When the price moves towards the trend line without manipulation, we see the market's finger chart, which returns to it again, but not in the initial price, but only in the range that is defined for you.
What Hidden Forces Are Reshaping the Soybean Market’s Future?The soybean market stands at a crossroads, where familiar patterns of supply and demand are being challenged by a web of global forces. U.S. crops, though abundant, face domestic difficulties as adverse weather threatens yield projections. South America, poised to increase production, is battling its climate concerns, leaving traders and analysts questioning what the true state of global supply will be. Despite the current pessimistic outlook, is there more to this story than meets the eye?
On the demand side, the rising global appetite for vegetable oils, fueled by population growth and the biofuel industry, adds another layer of complexity. Yet, regulatory changes like the EU’s deforestation rules and China’s ongoing economic struggles continue to shape the trade landscape. How will these evolving dynamics impact global soybean trade flows, and what are the risks and opportunities hidden within?
As technological advancements in biotechnology and precision agriculture push the boundaries of efficiency and productivity, the soybean market finds itself on the cusp of transformation. Investors and traders must decipher this intricate puzzle, where geopolitical shifts, weather risks, and innovation collide. Will those who grasp the nuances of these forces be the ones to seize the emerging opportunities?
SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS.
-We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon.
-Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels.
-I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered.
-Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets.
-The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025.
-A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
Soybean : Confluences from Phi numbersFurther to the pattern of the BAT formation and the objective of the head and shoulder formation stated earlier, we get to see the influence of the Phi numbers clustering which further support a high probable bottoming scenario.
The upward curl of the MACD supports the bottoming scenario.
Is Your Summer BBQ in Jeopardy?The seemingly innocuous drought in Brazil could have far-reaching consequences for global food supply chains. As the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazil's weather patterns significantly influence the availability and affordability of various food products.
The delayed planting of soybean crops due to dry conditions in Brazil is raising concerns about potential shortages and price hikes. This could have a ripple effect on the production of meat, poultry, and other food items that rely on soybeans as a key ingredient.
Beyond the immediate impact on soybean prices, the drought could also have broader implications:
Increased Food Costs: The shortage of soybeans could lead to higher prices for animal feed, ultimately affecting the cost of meat and poultry.
Disruptions in Food Processing: Industries that rely heavily on soybeans, such as food processing and biofuel production, may face disruptions due to limited supply.
Global Economic Impacts: The drought could have economic consequences beyond the food sector, affecting trade, transportation, and employment in related industries.
The question now is: How will the global food system adapt to this challenge?
As the world grapples with the implications of Brazil's drought, it is crucial to explore sustainable solutions and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts on food security and economic stability.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Soybeans (ZS)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish.
True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
