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ZS1! trade ideas

Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well. The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Soybean Bollinger Band SqueezeThree squeezes are noted on the chart with the current one having a yet-to-be-determined resolution. If it plays out according to theory (source: John Bollinger book "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"), the price action will begin a strong move either up or down. Based on the descending triangle-like nature of the current formation, and the bearish readings on the MACD, I'm watching for a price break to the downside. If it breaks to the upside, I'll be bewildered. The price bar coloration is based on the MACD Hybrid BSH which is a script I made and is available for anyone to use. The colorization logic is explained in the script. Basically it interprets whether the standard MACD is bullish, bearish, or neutral. I'm watching for a red signal which would be triggered by the MACD crossing to the underside of the signal line again. I'm setting an alert to 1240'0.
CBOT:ZSX2021Short
by Skipper86
2
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users. Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk…. Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins. Funds are exiting their longs **These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Novembe21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Beans have been trading lower, stuck inside a down trending channel. If the trend remains intact next week, support would be offered from 12.09 to 11.84. A hard break below the current trend would target the lower line. Nearby resistance would be the blue Tenkan line at 12.62 and then the red Kijun line at 12.69. Beans have failed to push above either line since mid-July. I will look at reestablishing targets above when we get a daily close above either the red or blue line…
CBOT:ZSX2021
by mtb1980
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line. Technical Indicators There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Ceddy86
The inflation trade is not dead! It has just started.The inflation trade is not over. People's lives, in particular in the US, are about to deteriorate significantly. Or rather improve, with food getting more expensive and people forced to live more simple lives, more in touch with nature. The official measures and consensus will say deteriorate. Traders positions have bottomed in the strict sense, with the price "bottoming" but not really as the price bounced. If you look at the charts there was a similar price pattern recently You might say the price hasn't already taken into account the wage costs and workers not going to work because they get welfare. Or you might say maybe it has. At the same time maybe farmers are getting undeclared workers with all the migrants? Either way you know what? The majority of institutions and their economists have an irrational bias in favor of the government and I don't think they are fully pricing what they should be pricing. And since the dramatic events in Afghanistan that irrational bias in favor of has been hit very hard, so maybe now they can stop being emotional and start actually pricing things more correctly. Plus on top of that if the issue of minimum wage has not fully impacted the price well it will add additional fuel to the rocket ship. The US has reduced its oil output but recently it has begged the OPEP+ to increase their production and keep prices low. Maybe it will beg the farmers soon? There are a lot of farmers on below living wage here in west Europe especially France where the state says no no to scaling up "we want only small family businesses" but yes yes to cheap imports from huge industrial complexes in Romania. The price of Soybeans is close to ATH, but nowhere near inflation adjusted ATH. Maybe our local farmers will be able to have decent profits (the average is 14,000 a year I think, not even minimum wage, and not counting debts, and it's not a 9 to 5 job obviously there are no weekends), I will be glad if the price goes up. Not sure about how much they make they might be lobbying I don't know. And stdev is big of course. Volume is also at its lowest, was, until this week. The inflation trade has been forgotten, the herd has been reassured by the FED. No one is paying attention. This is the typical bear market bottom. Maximum opportunity. The herd (pros) will join when there is a breakout and certainty in the move and it's almost over (or not who knows). The herd of retail will never buy because they don't trade this so don't expect a bubble like sugar in the 70s, but who knows... The price of the lumber christmas tree has fully retraced! Maybe people that were holding off their house purchases are going to buy now. One the info reaches them I guess... The liars can continue their nonsense reassuring speeches, and gullible fools will eat it up, but factually the printing is way more important now than it was before. Before M1 went up 50% in 7 years, about 5% a year, and that was already a bit crazy and alarmed the perma bears such as Peter Schiff, it even alarmed bankers and bureaucrats writting reports for the government. But now it's going up 20% in just 1 year! Not counting the big covid increase here, I'm just measuring the small line at an angle of 37° shown here: The promises are wind carrying waves. The chart is where the real info is. It has been going up faster and faster for 20 years. It will continue until it goes vertical and collapses like the bubbling pyramid scheme it is. Peter Schiff called it! Their only way to get out of this mess is to print EVEN MOAR. Until it all blows up. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by MrRenev
Soybean Futures September 2021 ContractHey there. Just one question, do you see any buying pressure in the Volume Oscillator? No? Yeap me too, so we will strong on short. Price will make(finger cross) a reversal at the trendline and we will be exiting our position in the next resistance turn support. P/S: My position was entered yesterday at 1412.6. The reason why I posted this is because some of my friend were saying that the price is currently bullish and already making a reversal. Some of them has close their position, I will stick to my plan, which I will exit at the next support area @ 1372. Option 2, I will exit if its break the trendline and has no mean to reverse down. Good Luck
CBOT:ZSU2021Short
by AMianz
2