ZS1! trade ideas
CBoT soybeans keeps its bear scenario for nowSoybeans:
The first essential resistance of 975 was not broken but price certainly knocked on its door during Wednesday's and Friday's session which makes us to add caution to caution with our outlook for this chart. Basically the week showed a jigsaw candle that did not break the resistance on the upside and did not take the previous low on the downside. In other words: no decisive move was made during the past week. Price is also moving with an ending diagonal already since the second half of August. An ending diagonal principally is a reliable continuation pattern from where price usually breaks out at 2/3 to 3/4 of the diagonal which, ideally, would have happened last week but could still happen next week.
In short: nothing really shocking happened during the past week and, even though we did not see the expected decisive break to the downside, the bias remains unchanged to be bearish. As long as the pivotal resistance at 994 remains intact we have no reason to change our opinion.
CBoT soybeans remain a short playSoybeans:
We will roll over to the JAN17 chart as soon as JAN's volume starts equalling NOV's volume.
Again no decisive break of price during the past week which is something that we have been waiting for since some time now. The weekly chart (not displayed/attached) shows us again a 'spinning top' candle which principally expresses indecisiveness of a market and which still leaves the door for our bear bias wide open. Last week's 'spinning top' candle had a relative long topping tail which indicates that the bull forces ran our of power during the process of trading up. Even though it does so less than perfect, price still reasonably follows our preferred path that we drew on the chart three weeks ago and we keep our bear bias unchanged. A break of the most recent low at 934 will give price an acceleration to the downside. Last week's high at 975 represents a resistance value that we would not like to see broken and a break of the 994 resistance will negate our bear bias outright and will send us back to the drawing board.
CBoT soybeans still bearishSoybeans:
We were expecting that price would break down through the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 935/940 but price continued trading sideways during the week although price took out its most recent low during last Tuesday's session. This break of the most recent low at 937 was not followed by further decline though.
The weekly chart (not displayed) shows a 'spinning top' for the past week which indicates indecision of the market and which keeps the door wide open for further decline. We maintain our bear bias for this chart and expect, again, that price will now decisively break out to the downside of the flat sideways during the coming week. The next challenges are the lows at the 916/910 zone of early April after which the 880 level comes in sight as first target.
CBoT soybeans remains short playSoybeans:
Nothing much changed on this chart and price keeps trading sideways within the boundaries of its expanded flat. We expect price to continue its down move from here and expect it to break its recent lows of the 940/935 zone finally during the coming week. If and after this happen the road to the (roughly) 915 level if free to trade to for price where we see the lows of April. The 'pit' that was formed during March this year at the 890/870 level then becomes a solid supportive level where a bottom could be found but we will have to see if and when that really happens. For now we keep our bear bias and our 885/875 as first target.
2618 trade possibility on Nov soybeansIf we hit the .618, a buy there and then hold for the 1.414 on the fib ext. This is also a complete abcd pattern as well. Stop at or below 940. makes the risk/reward ratio 1 to 2 at the 1.272. Even greater at the 1.414. bullish divergence on the rsi. Strong structure in the market at the 10.16 level and also around 982 level
CBoT remains a short playSoybeans:
Price has basically been bouncing between, roughly, the 980 level and 940 during the past 2 to 3 weeks keeps making impulsive moves after which a reverse occurs. Same happened again during the past week and especially the past 2 sessions showed a rather impulse to the upside which makes us believe that higher value is in the cards for this chart during the coming week. We still maintain our bear bias for price to break the 900 level downward comfortably but price apparently follows a route that takes longer than what we initially anticipated and which makes us push our timed target forward.
Soybeans: More Beearish Price Action Might Be AheadComments on thee chart. USDA figures are bearish as well. Seasonally this is a bearish period for this commodity. Add $ strength to the mix we have the perfect storm for more downside
Early sell signal at bearish supportIt looks like Soybeans retracement is done. Price action softens at Kijun Sen (bearish support)
Heikin-Ashi makes a doji candle. haDelta crossed down already on friday, haOscillator follows now.
Sellers may dominate again. This mkt is still bearish, until price is below Kijun Sen.
If anyone opens short, initial stop should be placed around 992.
CBoT Soybeans still looking for lower valuesSoybeans:
Nothing much to add to our last week's vision and the fact that last Friday's session showed a firmer market due to short covering does not change our bias. We are still looking for a further decline for this price. We kept our price target unchanged in level but have shifted it a bit in time.
Beans : long , short , than a much better long .Price has to turn up soon and move to the 10.00 area sell zone before it turns back down to trigger the main buy zone , if this does not happen idea becomes invalid .
Retrace to sell zonewill have to watch this to see if it plays out . I think the odds favor more downside to come .
CBoT soybeans unchanged shortSoybeans:
Price kept us waiting for a bit but made a decisive move to the downside after all during last week with especially a serious crack down of some 3% during Thursday's session and a break of the 962.50 immediate previous low during Friday's session. We have no reason to change anything in our projections or expectations and we only refined the targeted area a bit.
CBoT soybeans remains a bear bias with short playSoybeans:
The price is not following our preferred path and we have removed our bear-flag-pattern from the chart. Still, the EW count suggests another round of selling to the 900/880 level from here and as long as our resistance levels remain intact we keep our bear bias unchanged. Thursday's session created a classic 'Hanging Man' which is a reliable indication that the end of the move up is eminent but needs confirmation. Same confirmation came during Friday's session when the market posted a red candle. We expect a lower opening for Monday and follow through during the coming week.
SOYBEANS /ZS trend reversal started?soybeans and many other ags have rallied after dumping on the crop report and is possibly making a trend reversal after months of bearish action. I'm looking to pick up a long on a healthy pullback.
CBoT soybeans worth a short from hereSoybeans:
Price is following our preferred path only reluctantly and the earlier drawn 'bear-flag-pattern' is far from perfect. Still, we keep our eyes to the downside for this price and we have even trailed our target a bit down to the 870/850 zone which is some 10% below the current value. We should allow price to trade a bit up from here to the 1020/1025 zone where it would trade into a resistance area and an overshoot to the 1030/1035 will be tolerated as well. If price would break latter level to the upside we would have to return to our drawing boards and reconsider our bias.
August Soybean Futures LongThe market has recently made a valid double bottom with some bullish divergence on the RSI Indicator Below. This is also a pretty good zone of prior support/resistance and a 61.8 Fib Retracement of the previous move up leg. I am projecting the market to push higher into the 1080 range before it creates a small pullback from that zone. It definitely has the potential to continue its push up to retest the 1200 level like it did in June. Time will tell. Let me know your thoughts.
